Tropical Storm Claudette

[Prospero]

Lot of rain for New Orleans as well, and MS and AL, and mountains of GA.

I feel like it might drift east more towards the panhandle of FL. That would better as for valley flash floods in the hills and mountains, but low flat areas could still be under some water.

 

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Western most swirls convection outflow seems to be pushing back against the shear.  This may be wishcashing, there is near 0 chance Houston gets more than a sprinkle from this on the Euro/GFS and ensembles.  GIF too big to load.  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=goes17-meso1&product=vis

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico have become a little 
better organized today.  This system is expected to move generally 
northward, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to 
form over the west-central Gulf of Mexico tonight or early Friday.  
A tropical storm warning will likely be required for a portion of 
the northern Gulf Coast later this afternoon, and Potential Tropical 
Cyclone advisories will likely be initiated on this system at 4 PM 
CDT (2100 UTC).  An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft 
is en route to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. 

Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and 
southern Mexico during the next couple of days.  Heavy rains will 
also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday.  
Please consult products from your local meteorological service for 
more information. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

AL03 per ATCF since 1905 Z.  Probably a PTC, lowest pressure has a 15C T/Td depression, several wind shifts.  

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Euro seems to have seen the likely center reformation to the NE, or the landfall point of the East weighted rainstorm probably won't be far off from a Euro, a bit East of where the NHC development cone was centered.  MSY to MOB

 

[NavarreDon]

And away we go…..lol



880
WTNT43 KNHC 172034
TCDAT3

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

Visible satellite images show that the cloud pattern associated with
the broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is gradually becoming better organized. Deep convection is
beginning to form a broad curved band over the eastern portion of
the system, similar to what one might see in a developing
subtropical cyclone. Although the upper-level winds are not
particularly favorable for development, with lots of westerly shear
over the area, the global models do suggest tropical/subtropical
cyclogenesis within the next 12 hours or so. Given the proximity of
the disturbance to land, which requires tropical storm warnings at
this time, advisories are being initiated on this system as a
potential tropical cyclone.

Earlier scatterometer data suggested that the circulation was still
rather broad. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is currently
investigating the system and has not yet found a well-defined
center. Maximum winds based on surface observations and the
scatterometer pass are near 25 kt. Numerical intensity guidance do
not indicate a great deal of strengthening before the system
reaches the coastline, and the official forecast is at the high end
of the guidance.

Since the center is not that well-defined at this time, the initial
motion estimate, 360/8 is quite uncertain. The system is expected
to move northward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge for the
next day or so and then, after landfall along the central Gulf
Coast, turn toward the northeast on the northwest side of a
mid-level anticyclone near Florida. The official track forecast is
closest to the GFS and ECMWF predictions. It should be noted,
however, that these models suggest some reformation of the center
near the Louisiana coast rather than just motion from the southwest
Gulf to the expected coastal landfall point.

Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users
should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and
wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive
well in advance of landfall.

Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and considerable
flash, urban, and small stream flooding beginning Friday and
continuing through the weekend along the central Gulf coast and
spreading northeastward into the Southern Appalachians.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Friday in areas
near and well to the east of the center along portions of the
central Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the
Alabama/Florida border, including New Orleans.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 22.9N 92.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 18/0600Z 24.5N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 18/1800Z 26.5N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 29.0N 92.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 31.5N 89.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 20/0600Z 34.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 20/1800Z 35.0N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Brennan


.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

They got degrees, I don't, but unless it just never closes a low, the current center, as dry as a bone,  (still seeing 15C T/Td spreads) dissipates and a new center develops near 90W, or I suspect the entire cone should be shifted a couple of degrees to the East.  Only way a 40 or 45 knot storm will occur is if there is a center jump fairly soon.

 

Edit, I have a BS, but not in met/atmospheric science or anything close.  Engineering.

[NavarreDon]

They got degrees, I don't, but unless it just never closes a low, the current center, as dry as a bone,  (still seeing 15C T/Td spreads) dissipates and a new center develops near 90W, or I suspect the entire cone should be shifted a couple of degrees to the East.  Only way a 40 or 45 knot storm will occur is if there is a center jump fairly soon.
 
Edit, I have a BS, but not in met/atmospheric science or anything close.  Engineering.

I’m no expert but the disco seems to account for what you’re saying.

Numerical intensity guidance do
not indicate a great deal of strengthening before the system
reaches the coastline, and the official forecast is at the high end
of the guidance.


Since the center is not that well-defined at this time, the initial
motion estimate, 360/8 is quite uncertain. The system is expected
to move northward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge for the
next day or so and then, after landfall along the central Gulf
Coast, turn toward the northeast on the northwest side of a
mid-level anticyclone near Florida. The official track forecast is
closest to the GFS and ECMWF predictions. It should be noted,
however, that these models suggest some reformation of the center
near the Louisiana coast rather than just motion from the southwest
Gulf to the expected coastal landfall point.

Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users
should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and
wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive
well in advance of landfall.


.

[FLweather]

This storm has alot to go model wise.

Definitely going to be a lopsided TD/TS.

Looking at the models. They are off to tonight's presentation on satellite.

Any reformation will likely be a  good jump to the east. Likely south southeast of Mobile and Pensacola.

Judging by satellite only a very deep healthy anti cyclonic ATM centered south and east.

Outer edges of the trough showing up over Texas.

 

 

[NavarreDon]

The first outer band is coming ashore in FL,AL,MS, & LA now.

[WxWatcher007]

51 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

The first outer band is coming ashore in FL,AL,MS, & LA now.

Much better convection developing today as it approaches landfall—like the models suggested. Still lopsided, but better organized per recon. 

[NavarreDon]

Much better convection developing today as it approaches landfall—like the models suggested. Still lopsided, but better organized per recon. 

I’m at work in Fort Walton Beach but we’re about to get a small taste at home.



.

[cptcatz]

You can clearly see a tight lower level spin on the visible sat at 27.5N, 91.5W.  I'd be surprised if NHC doesn't name it at 2pm.

[WxWatcher007]

Up to 45mph at 2pm.

[FLweather]

I highly doubt that this will get named between now and 11pm.

You can clearly see how separated the surface is from the upper levels.

The mid level vortex just made landfall 1.5 hours ago. Just slightly after 4pm ET. SE of N.O. 

Current location is SW of N.O.

Now since the Mid level is over land all cards are off the table.

[Prospero]

If it deserves a name, give it. But if is barely or questionably a name and nobody will ever remember it, let's not waste names anymore. How many names we have had here over my home that nobody will never remember. I do remember the ones that actually created a memory, and even then might have to Google to remember what name that was and what year it visited.

I do name my photos, so have my own archive of photos and videos of waves crashing over seawalls or debris in my yard, but even then when looking at them I have to remind myself how the experience was. So many to remember, so many to visit. TS Debbie was one to remember for sure.

Or, maybe someday we can name thunderstorms that pop up over here. Some are more intense and exciting than some Tropical Storms. Hey, we name winter storms now, right? Why not afternoon thunderstorms?

[Tezeta]

1 hour ago, Prospero said:

If it deserves a name, give it. But if is barely or questionably a name and nobody will ever remember it, let's not waste names anymore. How many names we have had here over my home that nobody will never remember. I do remember the ones that actually created a memory, and even then might have to Google to remember what name that was and what year it visited.

I do name my photos, so have my own archive of photos and videos of waves crashing over seawalls or debris in my yard, but even then when looking at them I have to remind myself how the experience was. So many to remember, so many to visit. TS Debbie was one to remember for sure.

Or, maybe someday we can name thunderstorms that pop up over here. Some are more intense and exciting than some Tropical Storms. Hey, we name winter storms now, right? Why not afternoon thunderstorms?

Im down. We really should only name them once they reach 65kts

[cptcatz]

1 hour ago, Prospero said:

If it deserves a name, give it. But if is barely or questionably a name and nobody will ever remember it, let's not waste names anymore. How many names we have had here over my home that nobody will never remember. I do remember the ones that actually created a memory, and even then might have to Google to remember what name that was and what year it visited.

I do name my photos, so have my own archive of photos and videos of waves crashing over seawalls or debris in my yard, but even then when looking at them I have to remind myself how the experience was. So many to remember, so many to visit. TS Debbie was one to remember for sure.

Or, maybe someday we can name thunderstorms that pop up over here. Some are more intense and exciting than some Tropical Storms. Hey, we name winter storms now, right? Why not afternoon thunderstorms?

Seriously. Last summer a severe thunderstorm, typical of a South Florida summer thunderstorm was packing winds of 65+ mph, it knocked over my basketball hoop in the driveway which fell on my car denting the car and cracked the backboard. That was the worst weather damage I've had to deal with living in south Florida for the past 4 years. I'll always remember that nameless storm. 

[Prospero]

Quote

Seriously. Last summer a severe thunderstorm, typical of a South Florida summer thunderstorm was packing winds of 65+ mph, it knocked over my basketball hoop in the driveway which fell on my car denting the car and cracked the backboard. That was the worst weather damage I've had to deal with living in south Florida for the past 4 years. I'll always remember that nameless storm

I remember a hail storm in Colorado Springs around 1970 that we saw coming while hearing a terrible loud roar from a black wall coming from Pikes Peak. Baseball sized hail pounded on us and ruined cars, destroyed trees, damaged houses, and left 3ft of ice in our yard in mid-August. Then all that ice melted and created flash floods in town that was as worse. If hail storms had names, it would have been historic and still compared to anything today.

Hail Storm Andrew?

[Prospero]

Strongest winds I've seen so far is on the water off LA at SW Pass with a 52 mph gust earlier today:

Yea, a storm, but I see so many storms around there from fronts and typical monsoon waves.

Any storm chasers down there LIVE?

I haven't searched web cams yet, but might be worth while if I get a few minutes...

[NavarreDon]

Came home from FWB to Navarre (7-7:45pm). Bands of rain, in FWB no wind to speak of, Hurlburt field to Navarre was about *20mph sustained with gust to 30mph. About .9" of precip so far at the home gauge.

 

*estimated winds

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, Prospero said:

Strongest winds I've seen so far is on the water off LA at SW Pass with a 52 mph gust earlier today:

Yea, a storm, but I see so many storms around there from fronts and typical monsoon waves.

Any storm chasers down there LIVE?

I haven't searched web cams yet, but might be worth while if I get a few minutes...

As much as I love tropical, that’s not worth a chase. 

[NavarreDon]

Welcome baby girl.....hahahaha!

WTNT43 KNHC 190859
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

The system that we have been tracking for a few days finally has 
enough of a well-defined center and organized convection to be 
considered a tropical storm.  While the organization is not
classical by any means, and there are some hybrid characteristics,
the cyclone most resembles a sheared tropical storm, so the system
is now Tropical Storm Claudette.  The initial wind speed remains 40
kt, in line with surface observations and radar.  These winds are
primarily occurring in a strong band on the eastern side of the
cyclone well away from the center.

[WxWatcher007]

It’s obviously lopsided, but Claudette looks decent this morning. We’ll see a pretty interesting evolution over the next few days, and Claudette will probably look better over land than it ever did in the Gulf before trying to redevelop into a tropical cyclone off the east coast. Should be an active couple days.
 

Nice couplet west of Pensacola…

[WxWatcher007]

Pensacola reported a 51 mph wind gust.

[lee59]

12 hours ago, Tezeta said:

Im down. We really should only name them once they reach 65kts

Ana was named and was never tropical. Then we had Bill which somehow formed in waters that were questionable as far as temperature goes. Now Claudette with a center far from the heaviest convection. The NHC is naming storms that in the past would never have gotten a name.

[NorthHillsWx]

50 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Ana was named and was never tropical. Then we had Bill which somehow formed in waters that were questionable as far as temperature goes. Now Claudette with a center far from the heaviest convection. The NHC is naming storms that in the past would never have gotten a name.

Why we have everyone’s favorite measurement: ACE

[NorthHillsWx]

06:53

S 24 G 81

1.25

Heavy Rain Fog/Mist Squalls and Breez

Pretty good gust in Pensacola

[NavarreDon]

Our winds are sustained @ 30+ and gusting over 40 here in Navarre. I have certainly been thru better looking TS’s that weren’t as impressive.


.