Tropical Storm Claudette

[WxWatcher007]

Normally, it'd be a bit early to start a thread, but given the consensus for TC genesis on the guidance and potential flooding hazard to parts of the Gulf Coast, I think it's worth starting a thread. 

This is something we've been watching since early in the month, with consistent signals for a window of development in the western Caribbean or Bay of Campeche (BoC) finally focusing on a trough of low pressure that should spawn something in the next few days. Both intensity and track are TBD, but if this follows climo we would end up with a fairly large and disorganized system with the potential to bring significant rainfall to parts of the Gulf. While the Gulf is warm and the concave nature of the BoC favors development, there is a lot of shear over the region currently which will inhibit development for a while. Conditions are expected to become more conducive in the coming week. 

Just a final note: be wary of the spaghetti model guidance. It's not particularly helpful when we don't have a developed system (and even then...) so I'd focus on the GEFS and EPS with operational guidance second. 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure continues to produce a large area of 
disorganized cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche. 
Slow development is possible over the next several days while the 
broad disturbance moves little, and a tropical depression could form 
in this area late in the week.  Regardless of development, heavy 
rainfall will be possible over portions of Central America and 
southern Mexico during the next several days.  Please consult 
products from your local meteorological service for more 
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Blake

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

GFS does close a low, but the organization is poor enough it may never be classified.  PTC possible, out of an abundance of caution.  GFS 250 mb winds are not as hostile as yesterday's 12Z run (and from a different direction at 5 days), and the GFS comes closer to a TC, but the forecast shear still suggests it is very iffy.

[Prospero]

And then there is the NAVGEM:

Yea, go ahead and tease me! LOL

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

24 minutes ago, Prospero said:

And then there is the NAVGEM:

Yea, go ahead and tease me! LOL

35 knots of Westerly shear right over the center of the low strongly suggests 92L will not ever get a name, let alone becomes a hurricane.  Why does the Navy waste taxpayer money on that model?

[Prospero]

11 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

35 knots of Westerly shear right over the center of the low strongly suggests 92L will not ever get a name, let alone becomes a hurricane.  Why does the Navy waste taxpayer money on that model?

Do they ever hit?

Maybe it is just for entertainment for some of us. Wouldn't want to be on a Navy ship if this is all they use.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Shear even worse on 0Z GFS.  Might be good for a low level swirl with thunderstorms inland well to the NE of the surface low next weekend if GFS is right.

[FLweather]

This weekends runs of the Canadian sure backed off on this system.

The organization and strength.

Last night's run shows nothing more that tropical low pressure. With a plume of thunderstorms for the FL panhandle AL, MS.

With increasing SW shear closer to land it gets.

[LoboLeader1]

[JakkelWx]

17 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

The hell?? Three invests already?

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I doubt the African coast lemon is an invest.

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah, not an invest yet, but it might be the more impressive of the disturbances given its location. 

Back to 92L--I don't think anything has changed here. I still expect development of a TS level system, that might be fairly broad to start, but will be an efficient rain maker. We always knew this one would take time to develop. That fits climo. 

[LoboLeader1]

34 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

The hell?? Three invests already?

Looks like a map we would see in mid to late August.

[NavarreDon]

92L has earned its cherry….





Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Two, located about a hundred miles east of the
Outer Banks of North Carolina.

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche in
association with a broad low pressure area. Gradual development of
this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while it
meanders near the coast of Mexico. The system should begin to move
northward by midweek, and a tropical depression is likely to form
late in the week when the low moves across the central or
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern
Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin
to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please
consult products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.


.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I think PTC is more likely than a TD.  Looks bad now, and shear only gets worse.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Amateur hour, I say Freeport, TX to Fourchon, LA late Friday/early Saturday, most likely as a minimal TS.  Assuming SW most swirl becomes dominant.  If the less impressive swirl closer to the most lightning strikes to the NE becomes dominant, it probably shifts things.  NHC now 40/80, and my Freeport to Fourchon amateur forecast was posted on Twitter before the NHC cherry area went up.

 

I had a nice WeatherNerds gif loop showing the swirlies, but it is too large to load here.  https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/?initsatsrc=On&initsatname=GOES16&initsattype=vis&initcscheme=vis1&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=765&initrange=23.250000000000:-102.000000000000:14.750000000000:-88.000000000000&initloop=True&initnframes=20&initlightning16=On&initlightning17=Off&initltngfed=Off&initltngtoe=Off&initinterstates=On&initwarnings=On&initlatlon=On&initascata=Off&initascatb=Off&initascatc=Off&initascatamba=Off&initascatambb=Off&initascatambc=Off&initsst=Off

[Prospero]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Amateur hour, I say Freeport, TX to Fourchon, LA late Friday/early Saturday, most likely as a minimal TS.

Amateur hour cont...

I'm not sold on this one getting a name. Maybe, yet the models I see do not bring it into much in the Gulf. We'll see, but I'm still tired of seeing TX/LA getting storms from last year and would rather wait for something more interesting.

Bill surprised me as I was not expecting a Bill for a while. But how many times a week do I get surprised by unexpected Bills. I should have known. Might throw my predictions off by one for sure.

Rain is welcome here, and we have had a little the past two days from the Gulf which is not typical May weather pattern without tropical systems, and we welcome all we can get for now (within reason). But we are not in the TX/LA area...

 

 

[Tezeta]

It’ll get a name. Everything gets named. Plus it has a nice swirl already. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Edit: Mark Webber is a former Formula One driver.  Eric Webb posted an obscene tornado ECMWF forecast hodograph over a day after landfall.  Euro over 6 inches a lot of Louisiana first 24 hours after landfall.  Most Euro ensembles are between 30 and 40 knots, or it seems a coin flip on a name.

[Prospero]

38 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Edit: Mark Webber is a former Formula One driver.  Eric Webb posted an obscene tornado ECMWF forecast hodograph over a day after landfall.  Euro over 6 inches a lot of Louisiana first 24 hours after landfall.  Most Euro ensembles are between 30 and 40 knots, or it seems a coin flip on a name.

Waiting to be over hot humid swampy land to fire up?

Can it get a name after landfall?

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

14 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Waiting to be over hot humid swampy land to fire up?

Can it get a name after landfall?

May have a better chance back over the Atlantic than in the Gulf.  One thing that caught my eye, GFS ensemble 250 mb winds start to lighten up before Gulf landfall, (down to ~15 knots) and I wonder if the Joe Bastardi theory on concave coasts and frictional convergence might not have validity.  I don't see an ensemble perturbation suggesting much intensification in the Gulf.  Humberto was forecast when first advisory issues on it as a TD to landfall at 40 knots, it became a TS in 3 hours and a 75 knot hurricane at landfall.  But that is weeniecasting.

[Prospero]

10 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I don't see an ensemble perturbation suggesting much intensification in the Gulf.  Humberto was forecast when first advisory issues on it as a TD to landfall at 40 knots, it became a TS in 3 hours and a 75 knot hurricane at landfall.  But that is weeniecasting.

We never let our guard down on the Florida Gulf Coast. Definitely not feeling any threat right now, but a slow moving anything out there can be last minute wake-up call to action. This year we are well stocked on toilet paper still from the COVID craziness. As if toilet paper was ever the issue when a tropical storm or hurricane came by and knocked out power. I wish we could stock up on a couple weeks of ice to last when power is out, but no.

Weenie(wish)cast? Becomes a major spinning around aimlessly in the Gulf making it rain and giving some tropical wind everywhere but no damage or costs, then shear kills it a few hours before landfall when it is heading right over my house...

Yea, sick I know.

 

 

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, Prospero said:

We never let our guard down on the Florida Gulf Coast. Definitely not feeling any threat right now, but a slow moving anything out there can be last minute wake-up call to action. This year we are well stocked on toilet paper still from the COVID craziness. As if toilet paper was ever the issue when a tropical storm or hurricane came by and knocked out power. I wish we could stock up on a couple weeks of ice to last when power is out, but no.

Weenie(wish)cast? Becomes a major spinning around aimlessly in the Gulf making it rain and giving some tropical wind everywhere but no damage or costs, then shear kills it a few hours before landfall when it is heading right over my house...

Yea, sick I know.

 

 

 

Only in Houston can you lose power for about half the time during a 5 day period because temps dropped into the teens here and near/below zero farther North, and lose power almost a week from Hurricane Ike in 2008.  All the neighborhood citrus trees died.  Native to Texas Sabal mexicana palms laughed at the cold, probably why it is native, my fan palm (California fan, Mexican fan, hybrid, I don't know, $5 at Wal*Mart in 2001 because the Sun bleached the label) looked like it had died for about three months.  Oh, 98F seems the magic temp, looks like they miss the house, but storms on the sea breeze have blown up in a huge way.  Hard to see the fronds, but they have finally appeared. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

GFS ensemble means MSLP and 250 mb winds.  Suggestion of shear relaxing before landfall.  But only a couple of the 30 members get even to 1000 mb.

[FLweather]

2 hours ago, Prospero said:

Waiting to be over hot humid swampy land to fire up?

Can it get a name after landfall?

No and no.

Especially considering that it's transitioning from a tropical LP(warm core) to a mid latitude cold core LP.

Looking at the euro. The reason behind the difference between the two maps above is the fact that the Euro is showing the ridging over the Rockies breaking down some degree. Then troughing developing across the Midwest and Great Lakes.

What's left of the mid and upper levels basically has SW energy injected into from the developing trough. This amplifying the remaining upper levels.

 

[Prospero]

8 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Only in Houston can you lose power for about half the time during a 5 day period because temps dropped into the teens here and near/below zero farther North, and lose power almost a week from Hurricane Ike in 2008.

Yea, for Mets I know this is "Banter" talk, but hey no Banter forums yet and many of us are really longing for storm dialog...

The worst power outage and miserable time in my life was after an ice storm in Michigan in 1975 or 76. Ice on trees branches was so heavy it basically took down every power line in the county. My Uncle and Aunt in a farm house had a wood furnace, and it became a crowded local family shelter with a bunch of my cousins and more for a place to live and share one bathroom for two weeks with no electricity.

Ice was no problem, I don't remember toilet paper situation, but do remember the small dark farm house bathroom that was overwhelmed. Granted the two weeks of no power after Irma was no picnic and cost me a fortune in lost business while trying to work off my laptop running on my car power and what cell phone access we had.

 

[Tezeta]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Only in Houston can you lose power for about half the time during a 5 day period because temps dropped into the teens here and near/below zero farther North, and lose power almost a week from Hurricane Ike in 2008.  All the neighborhood citrus trees died.  Native to Texas Sabal mexicana palms laughed at the cold, probably why it is native, my fan palm (California fan, Mexican fan, hybrid, I don't know, $5 at Wal*Mart in 2001 because the Sun bleached the label) looked like it had died for about three months.  Oh, 98F seems the magic temp, looks like they miss the house, but storms on the sea breeze have blown up in a huge way.  Hard to see the fronds, but they have finally appeared. 

That’s a dank story

[WxWatcher007]

12 hours ago, Prospero said:

Yea, for Mets I know this is "Banter" talk, but hey no Banter forums yet and many of us are really longing for storm dialog...

The worst power outage and miserable time in my life was after an ice storm in Michigan in 1975 or 76. Ice on trees branches was so heavy it basically took down every power line in the county. My Uncle and Aunt in a farm house had a wood furnace, and it became a crowded local family shelter with a bunch of my cousins and more for a place to live and share one bathroom for two weeks with no electricity.

Ice was no problem, I don't remember toilet paper situation, but do remember the small dark farm house bathroom that was overwhelmed. Granted the two weeks of no power after Irma was no picnic and cost me a fortune in lost business while trying to work off my laptop running on my car power and what cell phone access we had.

 

This doesn’t look like a major tropical system, and we’ve been waiting basically two weeks for development, I think banter is fine lol.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

23 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Amateur hour, I say Freeport, TX to Fourchon, LA late Friday/early Saturday, most likely as a minimal TS.  Assuming SW most swirl becomes dominant.  If the less impressive swirl closer to the most lightning strikes to the NE becomes dominant, it probably shifts things.  NHC now 40/80, and my Freeport to Fourchon amateur forecast was posted on Twitter before the NHC cherry area went up.

 

I had a nice WeatherNerds gif loop showing the swirlies, but it is too large to load here.  https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/?initsatsrc=On&initsatname=GOES16&initsattype=vis&initcscheme=vis1&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=765&initrange=23.250000000000:-102.000000000000:14.750000000000:-88.000000000000&initloop=True&initnframes=20&initlightning16=On&initlightning17=Off&initltngfed=Off&initltngtoe=Off&initinterstates=On&initwarnings=On&initlatlon=On&initascata=Off&initascatb=Off&initascatc=Off&initascatamba=Off&initascatambb=Off&initascatambc=Off&initsst=Off

Freeport as a Western bound is out, more like Port Arthur, Fourchon looks decent, in a way, it doesn't matter, near 50 knots (although diffluent flow) over the top, 92L looks like a hybrid low and most of the rain looks to fall in Mississippi and Alabama.  Despite not knowing where actual center forms, ensembles strongly support the op, suggesting it doesn't matter exactly where the center forms, as long as it forms anywhere close to where the model thinks it closes.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Big floods and possibly an inland tornado risk, but >1000 mb on any reasonable model, as a TC, it may not even waste the name Claudette.

 

Waiting to see if Eric Webb posts another PPV Euro skew-T a day after landfall inland, but the 400 m^2/s^2 1 km helicity with almost 1000 J/Kg MLCAPE he posted on Twitter yesterday, the tornado risk could be significant.  Floods as well...

[NavarreDon]

Big floods and possibly an inland tornado risk, but >1000 mb on any reasonable model, as a TC, it may not even waste the name Claudette.
 
Waiting to see if Eric Webb posts another PPV Euro skew-T a day after landfall inland, but the 400 m^2/s^2 1 km helicity with almost 1000 J/Kg MLCAPE he posted on Twitter yesterday, the tornado risk could be significant.  Floods as well...

That would be some pretty bad flooding up in the mountains of WNC!


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