IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I will say at least this run finaly put most of us out of our misery. If nothing else you want the models to converge on one solution...nothing is more frustrating than one major model continuing to show a hit when the rest are a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I said last night at 1249am "idk, i see your point, but something smells here. i mean, the euro is spitting out hecs's like it's goin out of style and yet none of the other guidance are doing so or have trended away from that idea. dont you find that odd? i do. if the pattern was so good, then i would think the other guidance would at least show something similar, at least as we get closer to the event. " The la nina strikes again, but then again, the other guidance didn't have as much of a problem with it. Perhaps the new euro since the upgrade is not like the old version? Kudos to the GGEM which everyone thot was garbage. It probly will still be wrong, but it had the right idea to show no big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I hope so too, although the consensus right now seems to be that the cold pattern returns in January after our New Years' lakes cutter. That may be centered more towards the central and western U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Remember, NYC averages more snow in March than in December. The new normals may change that. This past 10 years has seen epic December snows but not much in March at all. I haven't looked but it may come out higher for December. It'll definitely won't be as skewed as it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I hope so too, although the consensus right now seems to be that the cold pattern returns in January after our New Years' lakes cutter. Looks like 12z was the decisive model suite after all, but not in the direction I hoped for!! The Euro took a major hit in my mind in terms of its reliability. It had us getting slammed for 5-6 straight runs. In most years it wouldn't even be a question as to what would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 as HM would say, "what a waste of cold air!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THEREALTOR1 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Here is my last shred of hope: Is there any chance that things still will change and come out different than what we are seeing now? I only ask this because the storm is still 3-4 days away, and history has also shown things can and do change within that time frame. Perhaps things will just keep getting worse, but isn't there room to say that with the slightest adjustment here and there, things can get better? It was the Thursday 12Z Euro run last week that showed a big hit for almost the entire east coast for last weekend, and we all know how that turned out. Our only hope is that it's consistent in showing the exact opposite of the final solution in this 72 hr timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Last one out the door don't forget to turn out the light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks like 12z was the decisive model suite after all, but not in the direction I hoped for!! The Euro took a major hit in my mind in terms of its reliability. It had us getting slammed for 5-6 straight runs. In most years it wouldn't even be a question as to what would happen. Yeah the euro credibility took a big hit especially for tis winter's la nina pattern. But even still, I think it's a bit early for everyone to be talking about the storm like its in the past when we've got 78 hours to go. Doesn't look good right now, but we've seen stranger things happen from this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Remember, NYC averages more snow in March than in December. Perusing the NE thread, it seems as though Decembers with below normal snowfall lead to significantly below normal snowfall for the season. Someone should do an analysis for NYC in that vein-- setting the ceiling at, let's say, 50% or less below normal snowfall for the season and see where that leads for the season. Factor out el ninos, since they are usually better later on in the season anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I've been pretty consistent with this being mostly a coastal threat, from that perspective not much has changed. The safe and reasonable call was one with a grazing blow (if at all). A few lessons can be learned here, namely that a modicum of skepticism is always needed when we're forecasting in the 4-7 day range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks like 12z was the decisive model suite after all, but not in the direction I hoped for!! The Euro took a major hit in my mind in terms of its reliability. It had us getting slammed for 5-6 straight runs. In most years it wouldn't even be a question as to what would happen. Imagine 0z GFS shifts west showing a hit tonight and the Euro goes more east at 0z... who would you trust more now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The new normals may change that. This past 10 years has seen epic December snows but not much in March at all. I haven't looked but it may come out higher for December. It'll definitely won't be as skewed as it is now. The overall mean for the entire record shows that they basically average around the same. But I think below average snowfall Decembers usually also lead to below average seasonal snowfall winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 we can update the storm mode operating status now to suicide operating status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 I've been pretty consistent with this being mostly a coastal threat, from that perspective not much has changed. The safe and reasonable call was one with a grazing blow (if at all). A few lessons can be learned here, namely that a modicum of skepticism is always needed when we're forecasting in the 4-7 day range.. I completely agree with this, but you and I both know our clients still aren't going to be happy with us sending out 4" for LGA and 2" for PHL and they end up with 0 (if they end up with 0). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The new normals may change that. This past 10 years has seen epic December snows but not much in March at all. I haven't looked but it may come out higher for December. It'll definitely won't be as skewed as it is now. Yes, definitely. We've really been spoiled recently with our Decembers. December 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2009 all saw some big snowstorms in the NYC area. Central Park has averaged 7.8 inches for the month of December over the past decade. March, on the other hand, has been pretty lackluster for the most part, with Central Park only averaging 3.5 inches (less than half of that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 We still have the GEFS Ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deano Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At least I can say I learned a lot from all the discussions. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Honestly if there wasn't such a build-up the past few days with the Euro runs, most would probably think we're not in a bad position right now at 78-84 hours out. The storm is progged just to our SE and we've got 3 more days of model variations to go wrt deciphering the phase timing and evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Perusing the NE thread, it seems as though Decembers with below normal snowfall lead to significantly below normal snowfall for the season. Someone should do an analysis for NYC in that vein-- setting the ceiling at, let's say, 50% or less below normal snowfall for the season and see where that leads for the season. Factor out el ninos, since they are usually better later on in the season anyway. I'll take a look at this later this evening, if UncleW doesn't chime in first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well, maybe we'll get a few inches out of this. That'd be nice at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishIwas Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 A few inches would still be nice, More than a dusting would be nice. I am trying to be a bit positive, TWC keeps talking about the Euro and GFS not agreeing.. Unless TWC is an hour behind the times and can't get their act together. They keep saying, we will see, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I have to laugh though, no matter how many of us are calling storm cancel right now you know darn well most of us will be back looking at the 18z and 00z model runs praying they will show some hope for at least some snow late weekend and early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 A few inches would still be nice, More than a dusting would be nice. I am trying to be a bit positive, TWC keeps talking about the Euro and GFS not agreeing.. Unless TWC is an hour behind the times and can't get their act together. They keep saying, we will see, They were still hyping the last storm even after it became abundantly clear it was going to miss most of the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Perusing the NE thread, it seems as though Decembers with below normal snowfall lead to significantly below normal snowfall for the season. Someone should do an analysis for NYC in that vein-- setting the ceiling at, let's say, 50% or less below normal snowfall for the season and see where that leads for the season. Factor out el ninos, since they are usually better later on in the season anyway. That's correct. Decembers with 3" or greater in NYC generally feature near or above normal snowfall winters, and vice versa. So if we get nothing out of this event, well, let's put it this way, that aint too good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Mega Fail by the Euro and all of its huggers out there. I guess those of us who jumped ship after the NAM run this morning and got bashed for it don't look all that bad right now. I don't want to hear "the Euro is king" one more time this winter. "told you so posts" that lack analysis will be deleted and are leading candidates for suspensions. OT is wide open for venting and recriminations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I have to laugh though, no matter how many of us are calling storm cancel right now you know darn well most of us will be back looking at the 18z and 00z model runs praying they will show some hope for at least some snow late weekend and early next week. I said this a few pages back. We are all like gambling addicts. We will leave right after this bet... We aren't going to leave. I will see 90 percent of you for the 0z runs. Even if you don't post...i know you'll be lurking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks like 12z was the decisive model suite after all, but not in the direction I hoped for!! The Euro took a major hit in my mind in terms of its reliability. It had us getting slammed for 5-6 straight runs. In most years it wouldn't even be a question as to what would happen. Yeah, same here. I won't look at the Euro the same way again for the rest of this winter. Sounds like its bias to hang back energy in the SW was the real culprit here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I was just thinking Sunday into Monday everyone was worried that Christmas travel would be effected than Tues into Wed it looked like More of a Sun into Mon Event and now maybe nothing.This is a roller coaster ride that may still not be over yet however... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 We still have the GEFS Ensembles For better or worse, that means a higher probability (than I otherwise would have guessed) that the OP GFS run shifts back west somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.