ARyan Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I find it sort of ironic that the news media was just starting to talk about the storm last night and this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm not an expert in any way, shape, or form, but is it safe to say the chances that any models will suddenly bring this threat back west is minimal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The La Nina is being used as a sort of cop out in my opinion, we have numerous threats like these in nearly every winter that don't materialize, and they are not all La Nina winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 We'll never look at the euro the same after this debacle. do't know about that, but a handful of the big talking heads have been trashing the other models and amateurs are getting brain washed into this view red flags were flying for days when only the euro was showing massive hits. I got caught up in it for sure. a few of the lower vocal members were never sold on the solutions and gave reasons, some were mocked to a certain degree I believe Rainshadow may have provided data that suggested odds of a big storm in this pattern are low to almost very low for big events and this winter season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The La Nina is being used as a sort of cop out in my opinion, we have numerous threats like these in nearly every winter that don't materialize, and they are not all La Nina winters. Completely agree-- most of these people didnt live through the horror that was the 80s lol. This has happened in el ninos, la ninas and almost any index you can think of. I hope they dont start thinking all el ninos produce for us, because theyll be in for a rude awakening the next time a 1972-73 or 1997-98 type el nino comes along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 it's the front piece of energy over ohio that's killing this.. not the ridge And also causing the light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Enjoy any Snow you get today. You may not see it till next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not at all surprised. I'm never looking at the Euro the same way again. With this storm now being a disappointment, it's now safe to call this month one of the worst winter months that I've ever experienced. Virtually no snow at all and lots of model teases and frustrations. I really need a break from this hobby. not to mention the total waste of cold air--December features 2 large storms here on the 1st and 12th both of which were lake cutters. Otherwise, cold and dry.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I believe the lesson learned here is not to follow any model suite until the major players, S/w's etc are in decent data sampling regions. Like 48h before and event. Would like to heart more about the small stuff going on in Oh central PA? The GFS was hinting at this too, Nam even had a dusting in DC X-mass day. Can anyone elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Here is my last shred of hope: Is there any chance that things still will change and come out different than what we are seeing now? I only ask this because the storm is still 3-4 days away, and history has also shown things can and do change within that time frame. Perhaps things will just keep getting worse, but isn't there room to say that with the slightest adjustment here and there, things can get better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Time to move on. Hopefully the weather warms up and we get a ridge, and we don't have to think about these phony threats anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 JB addresses this in his latest post "a wave on the arctic boundary will be in northern Virginia Christmas morning, and this will have its own swath of snow that is most prominent in the Plains and Midwest tomorrow into tomorrow night with light snow probably reaching all the way to the East Coast on Christmas Day" Wow, 12z Euro went wayyyy east. This'll end up all for the fishes, crazy. Funny the 12z Euro throws snow back into the Ohio Valley and Central PA. What's causing that light snow to come that far north and then east as the storm rides up the coast and heads out to sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Here is my last shred of hope: Is there any chance that things still will change and come out different than what we are seeing now? I only ask this because the storm is still 3-4 days away, and history has also shown things can and do change within that time frame. Perhaps things will just keep getting worse, but isn't there room to say that with the slightest adjustment here and there, things can get better? I've mentioned this in a different thread, but yes - they can. However, with this scenario it is very unlikely. Everything needs to be spot-on perfect for this to materialize and the models just don't support this happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 not to mention the total waste of cold air--December features 2 large storms here on the 1st and 12th both of which were lake cutters. Otherwise, cold and dry.... Not all that different from Dec 89 up here (which wasnt a la nina). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Thanks for the PBP guys; it was fun while it lasted. Hopefully we have something else to watch in the not so distant future. In any event, I learned a lot and look foward to the coming months in hopes of landing more meteorological wisdom.....and maybe even a few snow flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 JB addresses this in his latest post "a wave on the arctic boundary will be in northern Virginia Christmas morning, and this will have its own swath of snow that is most prominent in the Plains and Midwest tomorrow into tomorrow night with light snow probably reaching all the way to the East Coast on Christmas Day" what about his "6-12 from Denver to Dulles and then turning up the coast" JB must be crying right now...a dusting would be a big deal given how this has gone. Big bust of him for his "white x-mas" for most of the 95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishIwas Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Won't even get a dusting here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Time to move on. Hopefully the weather warms up and we get a ridge, and we don't have to think about these phony threats anymore. Sounds like youre hoping for an 89-90 repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 JB addresses this in his latest post "a wave on the arctic boundary will be in northern Virginia Christmas morning, and this will have its own swath of snow that is most prominent in the Plains and Midwest tomorrow into tomorrow night with light snow probably reaching all the way to the East Coast on Christmas Day" Thanks much, greatly appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Remember, NYC averages more snow in March than in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 it's the front piece of energy over ohio that's killing this.. not the ridge So is this the spat thats giving DC its flurries on X-mass per the nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I thought things would turn out alot more positive when the trough showed up sharper this run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Let's stop with the JB bashing. He's not the only one who busted here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 12Z JMA on par with the 12Z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Sorry Europe...this round goes to America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 That JB update is from 11am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 NOBODY and NOTHING has busted until monday night. feel free to be discouraged, but tallying up the busts is laughable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 My final thoughts, at least it is cold enough to make snow if you like to ski. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Time to move on. Hopefully the weather warms up and we get a ridge, and we don't have to think about these phony threats anymore. I hope so too, although the consensus right now seems to be that the cold pattern returns in January after our New Years' lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Sounds like youre hoping for an 89-90 repeat. If we're going to have these dry cold shots replete with false snow threats, then sure. I'd rather it at least be mild outside and relatively quiet. Maybe we actually get our shot when the lake cutter regime resumes, with some front end wintry precip or an overrunning threat. These coastal threats just don't want to cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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