famartin Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If the EC shifts (and it won't take much after last night's run to rip just about everyone in this thread off), I think this threat is more or less over. Strong La Nina will have trumped all else. We'll need to play Taps for the EC's days as king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 The EURO and GFS are far from equal in my opinion. The EURO is the Home Run Model and history clearly and easily backs that up. Models change. The GFS has clearly closed the gap since the upgrade in July. Euro is still the best, but it's not overwhelming like it was as recently as last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 well.....12z euro should be starting very soon. will this run be the straw that broke the camels back?? Judging on its consistency over the last few days....it would shock me if the euro missed the phase completely as the GFS and NAM appear to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Very disappointing trends today for sure...I think it's likely that the Euro goes east as well, and if it does I'm officially giving up on this threat. I have to say that I will be majorly disappointed in the Euro if it turns out to be wrong after consistently showing a major storm for 6-7 runs in a row, and I'll likely doubt anything that it says more than 72 hours out for the rest of this winter. I agree with Isotherm..this has been the most frustrating two weeks of model tracking that I've ever experienced. That should be the case for all snowstorms since the 75 mile axis of heavy snow can't be determined usually until you get less that 72 hours from the event. For rainstorms its different, the New Year's Storm will be rain (and may cause problems with the winter classic) even if it is off by 200 miles. My motto: 'Always remember President's Day Week 1989.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Anybody here capable of doing the euro pbp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Anybody here capable of doing the euro pbp Where's Tom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 alright the 12z euro has init Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Anybody here capable of doing the euro pbp I will throw some thoughts in if Tombo doesn't surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Anybody here capable of doing the euro pbp I'm picturing the scene from Black Sheep where David Spade and Chris Farley both don't want to look into the pot to see if the bat is in there, so they both count to 3 and look together, everyone should do that with the Euro when its finished running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 All in or fold??? Or half-bluff?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 out to hr 6..s/w is a hair weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 All in or fold??? Or half-bluff?? all-in half bluff. we got outs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hr 12 still not much difference so far...s/w again maybe a little weaker...ridge on the backside is a little stronger....h5 shortwave is over western new mex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Out to 18, southern s/w a little more compact than the 0Z but basically in the same position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Tombo, you comparing this to the 00z Euro of last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hr 18 h5 low is about to close off over east central new mexico...lgt precip from central mn to tx with some mod blobs sct about. 0z euro didn't have it about to close off at hr 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobBensalemSnow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Key to EURO is..... is it slower than GFS or same timing with the LOW, that will determine if we will like it or not :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Tombo, you comparing this to the 00z Euro of last night? yes, should i be comparing it to something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 yes, should i be comparing it to something else? No sir! You're doing fine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hr 24 has a closed h5 low just sw of amarillo....0z euro wasn't closed off yet at hr 36... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Out to 30, timing still very similar to the 0Z.. Ridge is a little more pronounced if anything, Looks like the northern stream is already more involved than the NAM, but difficult to tell for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hr 30 closed low over whichita falls tx, basically same spot maybe alittle east of 0z...lgt precip from central mn to tx...mod to hvy precip in eastern tx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 trough dig a bit sharper on the backside...552 ht down to kc at hr 36, 558 on 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hr 36 closed h5 low just west of dallas a little further east than 0z...lgt precip from central wis to tx...with hvr precip in eastern tx and ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hr 42 closed h5 low over eastern tx...northern stream starting to drop south lgt precip from southern wis south...some lgt to mod precip over southern indiana and ill, western ky and ten, ark...mod precip over tx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 500 opens up at hour 48. northern trough much sharper...552 ht down to Memphis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At 48.. Northern stream starting to cause the southern s/w to dig... Suface low forming in the gulf, a shade east of 0Z. Important thing here is the northern stream is getting involved still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hr 48 euro is a lttle faster, the closed low has just opened up, trof looks a bit more amplified... open h5 low is over western la...lgt precip over oh valley, with some lgt to mod precip over central and eastern ky....mod precip over la Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 3 pbp's doesn't work guys....just let tombo be tombo jusayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hr 54 s/w is over new oreleans...lgt precip coming into central pa and dc.. down through the apps and 150-200 miles either side...mod precip over la Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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