mattinpa Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 GFS ensembles still look west of the OP, at least from the map in the general forum. If the Euro holds, there's still some time. If the Euro goes east, looks like another disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The only hopeful thing I can say right now is that if you were forced to be stuck with only one model showing the outcome you want...it would be the euro. However, I'd be lying if I said I'm not losing hope. The last time I stood alone, separate from the crowd, was in kindergarten class when I was forced to sit in the corner wearing a dunce cap. It took awhile but I eventually realized that wasn't a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Very disappointing trends today for sure...I think it's likely that the Euro goes east as well, and if it does I'm officially giving up on this threat. I have to say that I will be majorly disappointed in the Euro if it turns out to be wrong after consistently showing a major storm for 6-7 runs in a row, and I'll likely doubt anything that it says more than 72 hours out for the rest of this winter. I agree with Isotherm..this has been the most frustrating two weeks of model tracking that I've ever experienced. If this whiffs to the east, the same happened during the second half of Feb in 1989 (for most). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If this whiffs to the east, the same happened during the second half of Feb in 1989 (for most). At least this one will be 80 hours out and not 8 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 The 12z GEFS is the snowiest piece of 12z guidance I've seen so far, and it's probably still a DCA-LGA screwjob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The 12z GEFS is the snowiest piece of 12z guidance I've seen so far, and it's probably still a DCA-LGA screwjob. But evidence that there is STILL uncertainty this close to the event. This is going to be a fascinating week of simulations to sort through to try to figure out what went right/wrong, and how to make make things better in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At least this one will be 80 hours out and not 8 though. Yes, that one really hurt Joe Harrison who put up the winter storm warning for NYC. I really gotta get out of here now, Everybody have a great holiday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishIwas Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What time does the next Euro come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hey all, completely an observer, usually, but, one thing has caught my attention. DT kept talking about the confluence and how the low needed to get out of the way, and he was VERY shocked (WOW WOWOW) that, per the Euro, it DID get out of the way and allowed the storm to turn up the coast. This seemed to go against the typical La Nina pattern we are in. Is there any way that we are just seeing the beginnings of this happening, and that the models are actually going to readjust to what the euro was seeing all along? So, talking from a nowcast perspective, not what the models are showing: How does the current map look against what the euro had during all those great runs? Thanks in advance. -Sean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What time does the next Euro come out? Starts in around 30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yes, that one really hurt Joe Harrison who put up the winter storm warning for NYC. I really gotta get out of here now, Everybody have a great holiday! yep 6-10 inches expected..ending up with snow showers..lol..and yes it was 8 hours away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 But evidence that there is STILL uncertainty this close to the event. This is going to be a fascinating week of simulations to sort through to try to figure out what went right/wrong, and how to make make things better in the future. Yeah, it's very interesting how many members are deeper/farther west considering the three operational solutions we've seen so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monroe Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not always the case, it depends on the scenario...in this case the delay appears to be part of the problem in that the delay allowed the western ridge and eastern trough to come a bit too far east...but if the scenario unfolded earlier its possible the timing of the north/south disturbances would have been no good anyway. Of course - I apologize for the lame comment w/o any facts behind it. I was just going off past experience. When storm gets pushed back by a couple days it is not a good sign - Fri night- Sun night. Made that forecast yesterday as I was suppose to have company up on Monday. Told them not to worry about it. Now if my forecast is as good as my football pics this year then we are guaranteed a good snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hey all, completely an observer, usually, but, one thing has caught my attention. DT kept talking about the confluence and how the low needed to get out of the way, and he was VERY shocked (WOW WOWOW) that, per the Euro, it DID get out of the way and allowed the storm to turn up the coast. This seemed to go against the typical La Nina pattern we are in. Is there any way that we are just seeing the beginnings of this happening, and that the models are actually going to readjust to what the euro was seeing all along? So, talking from a nowcast perspective, not what the models are showing: How does the current map look against what the euro had during all those great runs? Thanks in advance. -Sean I thought confluence and blocking were not the hallmarks of strong ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah, it's very interesting how many members are deeper/farther west considering the three operational solutions we've seen so far really..then I guess there's a little hope that the Euro won't budge..i thought that most of the members would be out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This proves my theory that in La Ninas the NE/MA is better off in a zonal type pattern or suppressed SW flow regime...these semi +PNA setups just do not typically work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 really..then I guess there's a little hope that the Euro won't budge..i thought that most of the members would be out to sea There's probably a couple members that don't even produce a storm or a weak wave 1000 miles to our southeast that skew the mean. What else can cause such a look if many are hits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 really..then I guess there's a little hope that the Euro won't budge..i thought that most of the members would be out to sea Most are, but there are 5 or 6 that are decent hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 As I said, mostly an observer. I guess my real point, since I don't know what I'm talking about is: How does the current surface map look compared to what the Euro had during its recent great runs...? I thought confluence and blocking were not the hallmarks of strong ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 really..then I guess there's a little hope that the Euro won't budge..i thought that most of the members would be out to sea I would fully anticipate it to come a bit east...I'd be surprised somewhat if it went way east, I'd be very surprised if it went west...then again I was sure it was going east on its past run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 stay posative.....until all or most models converge on a solution one way or another anything is still up for grabs. I would bet after 18z last night not many people thought we would be this pesimistic. Still a long way to go on this one. Since the GFS ensemble mean continues to track west of the op...and the EC ensembles still looked good at 00z I'm thinking the 12z EC tracks very closely to its 00z solution making alot of us happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I would fully anticipate it to come a bit east...I'd be surprised somewhat if it went way east, I'd be very surprised if it went west...then again I was sure it was going east on its past run. In my humble opinion, the euro was leading the pack up until last night. All models were trending towards it (west). It appears that all of the pieces were on the Conus after the 12AM run of the euro. So the gfs & the nam had this info first since the euro doesn't have a 6z run and then they trended east. I would bet if the euro had a 6z run it would have trended east as well. Up to that point, the models were catching up to the euro. I just think better data was received by all models after the 0z run not giving the euro the benefit of that data until the 12z euro today. This is just my thoughts, I would like to hear from the mets. I believe the euro will move east, but don't assume it wasn't the lead model. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 A part of me refuses to give up on this thing until the Euro comes out today because I think it's wrong to jump ship based off other models which have been less consistent than the Euro (namely GFS, NAM, GGEM). But another part of me is getting so sick of weather tracking this winter and if things really turn out to be no snow with this storm, I don't think I'll have the strength to keep doing this until a storm threat is legitimately 1-2 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If the 12z euro flips....I would expect were going to be taken off storm mode. That in of itself is symbolic considering last week it was issued after one big euro hit....and only removed once the EC shifted again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Think Positive, Think Positive. I would take a few inches of snow right now. Something funny there have been flurries all day here today..and I think the GFS does give us snow showers Christmas night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If the 12z euro flips....I would expect were going to be taken off storm mode. That in of itself is symbolic considering last week it was issued after one big euro hit....and only removed once the EC shifted again. IMO, after the upgrade to the GFS and 'Upgrade' to the EURO couple years ago.... EURO/GFS are now equal. (Although it is becoming apparent the EURO has strong bias to overamplify storms while to a lesser extent the GFS can underdo storms (but nothing like the GFS of 1990s and early/mid 2000s). GGEM/UKIE are close to the big 2, and recently GGEM has been very good, but still these are 2nd tier to me. NAM within 48-60 hours, equals the GFS/EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishIwas Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 funny there have been flurries all day here today..and I think the GFS does give us snow showers Christmas night Yep, I have seen some flakes here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobBensalemSnow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 WOW are you guys all Model Huggers? The issue is the timing, the models have quickened up the storm causing it to be east, if it is slower it will move up the coast, the EURO has a slow bias. Try looking at the Water Vapor Map and Surface Map instead of just the models, remember garbage in = garbage out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobBensalemSnow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The EURO and GFS are far from equal in my opinion. The EURO is the Home Run Model and history clearly and easily backs that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 IMO, after the upgrade to the GFS and 'Upgrade' to the EURO couple years ago.... EURO/GFS are now equal. (Although it is becoming apparent the EURO has strong bias to overamplify storms while to a lesser extent the GFS can underdo storms (but nothing like the GFS of 1990s and early/mid 2000s). GGEM/UKIE are close to the big 2, and recently GGEM has been very good, but still these are 2nd tier to me. NAM within 48-60 hours, equals the GFS/EURO. Here is the 5-day surface pressure verificaiton across the NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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