Shades Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 For those ribbing the models and the waffling: I guess we fail to appreciate the SCIENCE of meteorology so much as its outcomes? In my eyes, the frustration is part of the passion. If models were accurate/persistent that would relinquish the need for thoughtful and insightful dialogue, which is something no super computer can emulate. To me, this is the purpose of a weather board such as this. The models don't have feelings, they are computational. As people, we have feelings, but sometimes we let it get in the way of actually understanding the science. In this way we fail worse than the models because we depend on them, bash them, and insult their imperfections. Time to look at our own, because we can make judgment calls. The models can't, they do their job, and we do ours whether as enthusiasts or professionals to track them. FEELINGS should not get in the way of this otherwise you don't have a science but a really bad never ending soap opera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 UKIE had an upgrade recently no? That may explain why it's performing ok lately. It supposedly has one of the better verifications but I have so rarely if ever used it because it was poor from what I recall earlier in the 2000s...it did do very well last winter on most events that I remember...this year it has had the suppression idea right but its had it a bit too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If the 12z Euro comes in east, I probably won't be looking at the models again until Christmas Morning. Too stressful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It was WAYYYY too far east though, its been overly suppressed for both events, the last even was way closer than it indicated and this one will probably be west of what it has shown on many of its runs as well. It also started wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy too far west. At 144 hours it would have had snow changing to rain here last weekend. The can ggem has appeared the steadiest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It It also started wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy too far west. At 144 hours it would have had snow changing to rain here last weekend. The can ggem has appeared the steadiest. I wonder if the GEM typically performs well in Nina winters because its usually too far west/warm? Does this mean the NOGAPS is good in Nino winters? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What did the latest GEM show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 i love everyone saying they are leaving if the euro is a miss. you're liars. the 12z euro could have the storm making landfall in spain and you will all still be here later tonight to see the 0z runs. we all talk a big game, but this hobby is a lot like gambling, and it is very difficult to get up from the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It I wonder if the GEM typically performs well in Nina winters because its usually too far west/warm? Does this mean the NOGAPS is good in Nino winters? LOL You know what prior to the other models taking off skill-wise, it was very good during the winter of 1997-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What did the latest GEM show? Only out to 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 You know what prior to the other models taking off skill-wise, it was very good during the winter of 1997-8. I just posted that the Euro's SW bias could be really hurting it this year in the Nina....I do believe the Euro had problems in 2000-2001 but don't remember much about what it did in the recent La Ninas, but I'd imagine the Euro is more likely to perform better with an active southern branch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 GGEM to 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The GEM is clearly going to be a major miss at 48....I'm not sure it will even produce a remotely deep low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The only hopeful thing I can say right now is that if you were forced to be stuck with only one model showing the outcome you want...it would be the euro. However, I'd be lying if I said I'm not losing hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The GEM is clearly going to be a major miss at 48....I'm not sure it will even produce a remotely deep low Why is that? Because the low is too far south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Why is that? Because the low is too far south? More than the northern disturbance seems to be insanely fast and moving due east and not SE or SSE....I posted in the main thread that the GEM may try to develop a Gulf Low later in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I just posted that the Euro's SW bias could be really hurting it this year in the Nina....I do believe the Euro had problems in 2000-2001 but don't remember much about what it did in the recent La Ninas, but I'd imagine the Euro is more likely to perform better with an active southern branch From a modeling perspective its lose lose, if the euro is correct, all of the other models up to this forecast point are severely whiffing (for PHL area). If the Euro is wrong, then really any solution it has that is not close to its ensemble mean position at 72 hours and beyond needs to be carefully scrutinized. In reality, we do the the latter with every model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Very disappointing trends today for sure...I think it's likely that the Euro goes east as well, and if it does I'm officially giving up on this threat. I have to say that I will be majorly disappointed in the Euro if it turns out to be wrong after consistently showing a major storm for 6-7 runs in a row, and I'll likely doubt anything that it says more than 72 hours out for the rest of this winter. I agree with Isotherm..this has been the most frustrating two weeks of model tracking that I've ever experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Correct me if im wrong, but didn't the euro ensembles come even further west last night even after the op went a little east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 How are the real time obs comparing to the modeling output, I mean, at this point most of the players are on the board, can we glean anything from the what we can observe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This is insane. GGEM doesn't even have a storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishIwas Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 How likely is it for the Euro to be wrong in all those runs? When was the last major oops for the Euro going so many runs with the same output and bombing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 How likely is it for the Euro to be wrong in all those runs? When was the last major oops for the Euro going so many runs with the same output and bombing Last winter it blew one of the events showing a cutter until day 4 or so when all the other models were coastal storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 How likely is it for the Euro to be wrong in all those runs? When was the last major oops for the Euro going so many runs with the same output and bombing The Euro has a renowned bias of hanging back energy/shortwaves in the SW, it has been commented on by many mets. This bias plays into what is favorable for the formation of a strong coastal low, in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If Euro is a hit or even a CLOSE miss I think U have to give another round or two Tonight and tomorrow morning of model runs before completely writing this storm off.. That is just me though ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monroe Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 When a storm keeps getting delayed .............not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The Euro has a renowned bias of hanging back energy/shortwaves in the SW, it has been commented on by many mets. This bias plays into what is favorable for the formation of a strong coastal low, in this situation. It can usually get around that bias, but this year with this La Nina flow I'm thinking it could not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Its very unlikely however with the divergence of model output that we are seeing 3 days out I honestly don't know what to think. Is it that complicated a setup that the models could be so off as we get closer to the event than they were 5, 6, 7 days out??? How likely is it for the Euro to be wrong in all those runs? When was the last major oops for the Euro going so many runs with the same output and bombing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 How likely is it for the Euro to be wrong in all those runs? When was the last major oops for the Euro going so many runs with the same output and bombing It happens A LOT more than people realize beyond day 5. But most people only pay close attention when there's an IMBY snowstorm to track, so their personal sample size is small and biased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 When a storm keeps getting delayed .............not happening. Not always the case, it depends on the scenario...in this case the delay appears to be part of the problem in that the delay allowed the western ridge and eastern trough to come a bit too far east...but if the scenario unfolded earlier its possible the timing of the north/south disturbances would have been no good anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Last winter it blew one of the events showing a cutter until day 4 or so when all the other models were coastal storms. This fall it had a lake cutter solution when all of the models had a coastal. That one would have been rain either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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