NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Potential - Part 4

[dilly84]

MW poster here. You guys still have a good chance, maybe not with a bomb but still some good snows. Look on the bright side, at least you dont have to look at the radar and try to understand how its going to go under us when it's moving east lol. I am rooting for you guys to get slammed though.. No sense in wasting it OTS.

[tombo82685]

through hr 24, s/w looks stronger...northern stream coming in a little quicker...better ridging in rockies and oh/ten valley..trof looks a lil sharper

[baroclinic_instability]

MW poster here. You guys still have a good chance, maybe not with a bomb but still some good snows. Look on the bright side, at least you dont have to look at the radar and try to understand how its going to go under us when it's moving east lol. I am rooting for you guys to get slammed though.. No sense in wasting it OTS.

Hi Dilly.

[baroclinic_instability]

0Z GFS had this nearly perfect given what we have left, hard to top that in the overall configuration of the trough. Only better thing would be if that southern PV goes a tick farther S with the trough following.

[tombo82685]

looks pretty close to 0z so far...s/w looks stronger, alittle slower... the ridging looks better to through 36

[nzucker]

Definitely better ridging along the East Coast...540dm contour ran through NYC at 42hrs on the 0z GFS, whereas it runs through Poughkeepsie, NY at 36hrs on the 6z GFS. Also the energy seems to be digging a bit more and slowing the trough down which might cause the storm to track a bit farther west.

[A-L-E-X]

Definitely better ridging along the East Coast...540dm contour ran through NYC at 42hrs on the 0z GFS, whereas it runs through Poughkeepsie, NY at 36hrs on the 6z GFS. Also the energy seems to be digging a bit more and slowing the trough down which might cause the storm to track a bit farther west.

More ridging seems to be the theme of the morning. The euro had it too, but the track had not adjusted yet. 6z NAM indicated better ridging also.

Is this showing up because the neg NAO has begun to break down? If so, good riddance

Bout time the la nina actually started behaving like one and enhanced that SE ridge so we can get a coastal track.

[baroclinic_instability]

Tough call right now...very very small details. Perhaps too small it may just be noise...

But just analyzing this run thus far, it looks better than 0Z. As others said, the Rockies ridge is pumped even more, and we need that amplification for that trough to beeline to the GOM. Slower southern PV...as long as it is caught up into the northern stream, slower is better.

[Yorkpa25]

Don't want to jinx this, so it's going OTS.

[tombo82685]

its alittle further east, its not digging as deep into the gom as 0z did.

[baroclinic_instability]

Hmm, through 51 not as good as 0Z, will likely look very close to 0Z but not quite as good.

[A-L-E-X]

Hmm, through 51 not as good as 0Z, will likely look very close to 0Z but not quite as good.

It looks like it really "wanted" to, but (like the EURO), just not soon enough.

[CooL]

Hr 66...Looks like the euro...Going to be minimal QPF in the nyc metro

[jwilson]

Didn't buy this storm from the onset...seems that common sense prevails. Wrong pattern overall. I don't buy into much for this area until something happens to the pacific and the La Nina, which may not be until next winter I guess? What is the prognosis for next winter's La Nina/El Nino? How will the ENSO state setup?

[baroclinic_instability]

It didn't dig far enough S, doesn't have enough latent heat of condensation from the GOM, warm air advection is weaker as a result and upper level heights are a tad flatter, and the system isn't going negative quite as fast as a result. We need the GOM!

[tombo82685]

alright im heading to bed, cya guys later on

[baroclinic_instability]

Goodnight all, wish you guys luck for the 12Z runs.

[A-L-E-X]

It didn't dig far enough S, doesn't have enough latent heat of condensation from the GOM, warm air advection is weaker as a result and upper level heights are a tad flatter, and the system isn't going negative quite as fast as a result. We need the GOM!

What are we looking at qpf wise? SNE still gets a moderate hit (.5-.75), with minimal amounts (.1-.2) for NYC?

[tmagan]

Safe to say the 06Z track of the GFS, NAM, and UKMET are nearly on par with each other.

[baroclinic_instability]

What are we looking at qpf wise? SNE still gets a moderate hit (.5-.75), with minimal amounts (.1-.2) for NYC?

Just glancing at Ewall QPF, looks like a trace for NYC and up to .25 for the very far E end of Long Island. Everything is just a glance on this run, even NE guys get a lot less. Man this forecast will be a tough one for the folks in NE as well as for NYC/Long Island. How far that wave digs is going to be key, and forecasters will need to nowcast the development in the GOM. This 06Z runs shows how sensitive positive feedback cyclogenesis is.

[A-L-E-X]

Just glancing at Ewall QPF, looks like a trace for NYC and up to .25 for the very far E end of Long Island. Everything is just a glance on this run, even NE guys get a lot less. Man this forecast will be a tough one for the folks in NE as well as for NYC/Long Island. How far that wave digs is going to be key, and forecasters will need to nowcast the development in the GOM. This 06Z runs shows how sensitive positive feedback cyclogenesis is.

Thanks! I just saw it.... I get about 1 inch of snow here in SW long island based on that..... maybe 3 inches for Montauk. Boston like 6. Cape gets more but with mix issues.

[A-L-E-X]

Safe to say the 06Z track of the GFS, NAM, and UKMET are nearly on par with each other.

and a bit east of the euro, which was too far east to be any good for us to begin with lol.

[SnowGoose69]

For the record, I am currently on the WMO site clicking on all the members of the WMO and using google translator to go to their sites seeing if they happen to have a model available that shows a snow storm here...the Turkish model is out to sea...

[A-L-E-X]

For the record, I am currently on the WMO site clicking on all the members of the WMO and using google translator to go to their sites seeing if they happen to have a model available that shows a snow storm here...the Turkish model is out to sea...

Looking more and more like even a compromise solution would be too optimistic. I wouldnt be shocked if even western long island only sees a coating out of this. 1-3" for montauk might be pushing it also lol.

[SnowGoose69]

This is a miss most likely for anyone west of the Nassau/Suffolk border, the good news is the next chance is at most 12-15 days away.

[A-L-E-X]

This is a miss most likely for anyone west of the Nassau/Suffolk border, the good news is the next chance is at most 12-15 days away.

Unless the nao flips positive and stays there. I still say a less extreme version of 89-90 isnt off the table lol. I have a feeling that once the nao goes positive, the la nina will want to keep it there until March.

[SnowGoose69]

Unless the nao flips positive and stays there. I still say a less extreme version of 89-90 isnt off the table lol. I have a feeling that once the nao goes positive, the la nina will want to keep it there until March.

I'm thinking the blocking comes back, the GFS even has a clear east based -NAO on its latest runs in the Day 5-9 frame and then it heads back towards Greenland again.

[A-L-E-X]

I'm thinking the blocking comes back, the GFS even has a clear east based -NAO on its latest runs in the Day 5-9 frame and then it heads back towards Greenland again.

Wow, if that happens, I wonder if we see a repeat of this December pattern. east based -nao opens us up to cutters though-- do you think it stays there long or goes west fairly quickly? I wonder if ENSO starts to weaken, we can shed this pattern and develop something more favorable. ENSO 3.4 higher than -1 would be better.

[showmethesnow]

I'm thinking the blocking comes back, the GFS even has a clear east based -NAO on its latest runs in the Day 5-9 frame and then it heads back towards Greenland again.

Looks like it gets beaten down pretty good in the long range on the 06Z GFS. It's an off run of the GFS and long range to boot so I take that for what it's worth. Just wondering how you see it playing out that we do get the west based blocking back. Is there anything we should keep an eye out for that to happen?