tombo82685 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 getting there on the srefs up to 3 hits now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Some light snow is thrown back for most areas in NJ/NYC/SE NY..etc. Looks like a broad .10" on the NAM through 69 hrs..eastern LI approaching .25". So we could salvage an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 72 hrs basically 0.25" on the east end of LI. .10" everywhere else...screw zone is south of Staten Island where there is minimal QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 3 of those are pretty good-- starting to look like GFS ensembles from 24 hrs ago, which gave us 0.5" on average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I am impressed with the end results. The NAM looked like garbage compared to the ideal 0z GFS and it still ends up close. If it had the exact same upper level height configuration, this would have been even more impressive than the 0Z GFS. NAM is also ridiculously unstable near the circulation, and convection going to play a huge role here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I swear, ETA5 is always a huge hit somehow, someway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I am impressed with the end results. The NAM looked like garbage compared to the ideal 0z GFS and it still ends up close. If it had the exact same upper level height configuration, this would have been even more impressive than the 0Z GFS. NAM is also ridiculously unstable near the circulation, and convection going to play a huge role here. We're teetering on the edge here. If the guidance continues to trend stronger with the shortwave that amplifies into OK/KS and then essentially scoops up the shortwave on the Gulf Coast...we're going to see dramatic results. If not, we're going to see a dramatic trend backwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 onto the gfs, hopefully we can continue with these trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 onto the gfs, hopefully we can continue with these trends Lol, GFS is an extreme outlier with the shortwave over OK/KS but if it comes in stronger, you can pretty much picture yourself lighting a match in a room filled with kerosene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Look at the NAM simulated 925 wind fields. Ridiculous. Has a warm seclusion signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 heres the 0z euro ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Lol, GFS is an extreme outlier with the shortwave over OK/KS but if it comes in stronger, you can pretty much picture yourself lighting a match in a room filled with kerosene. Hey, if thats all it takes to get this storm to come closer to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I am sure most of you guys have heard of the CIPS Analogs site, but if you haven't, a fun site to use! http://www.eas.slu.e...ALOG/analog.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I am sure most of you guys have heard of the CIPS Analogs site, but if you haven't, a fun site to use! http://www.eas.slu.e...ALOG/analog.php Ha...12/29/2000 is number 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Ha...12/29/2000 is number 2. 12/20/09 also in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The number one analog for the NE U.S. at 72 hours is 12/27/04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow, the European ensembles may be a tick NW of the OP...and even have a very strong spread to the west/southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12/20/09 also in there. The number one analog for the NE U.S. at 72 hours is 12/27/04. I don't know my EC storms like you guys, are those decent analogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I don't know my EC storms like you guys, are those decent analogs? 12/20/09 was 1-2 ft from va to almost to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12/20/09 was 1-2 ft from va to almost to nyc Yeah, but from an analog standpoint it's terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12/27/04 dropped 6-8 inches on the south fork, 2-4 for a good part of the NYC metro thanks to the upper low that rotated in behind the storm...that feature will need to be watched closely on this event as well as it could surprise us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I don't know my EC storms like you guys, are those decent analogs? I told earthlight that I liked 12/20/09 as an analog about 5 days ago. The west ridge, however, was much further west. I think 12/27/04 is a better analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I told earthlight that I liked 12/20/09 as an analog about 5 days ago. The west ridge, however, was much further west. I think 12/27/04 is a better analog. none of them have the type of ridge this does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12/20/09 was 1-2 ft from va to almost to nyc Yeah, but from an analog standpoint it's terrible. 12/27/04 dropped 6-8 inches on the south fork, 2-4 for a good part of the NYC metro thanks to the upper low that rotated in behind the storm...that feature will need to be watched closely on this event as well as it could surprise us. I told earthlight that I liked 12/20/09 as an analog about 5 days ago. The west ridge, however, was much further west. I think 12/27/04 is a better analog. Interesting, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Overall, if you go to the Ewall site and check those analogs at 72 hours, its amazing how many of those were near misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 gfs out to hr6...closed h5 over se new mex, a little slower than 0z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think you wanted to include 3/2/09 as an analog too The one I dont want to see is 2/89 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Are we still at the point where we want the shortwave to slow down? from my standpoint, if its slower and the northern stream rushes out ahead of it, the 2 wont pair up unitl well out in the atlantic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 hr 12, s/w looks stronger, and better ridging in the rockies and in tenn/ohio valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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