NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Potential - Part 4

[SnowGoose69]

So 72-73 was worst and 97-98 second worst? Interesting that both were strong el ninos. We've also had a couple of great strong el ninos (57-58, 09-10) and one that was fairly good (82-83). It shows that while enso does have an effect, NAO matters more for us.

97-98 was just so strong it absolutely overwhelmed the country with Pacific Air for the most part, the AO was negative and the NAO was as well for good parts of that winter but there was no cold air to be brought in from Canada...the storm track was perfect, we got benchmark tracks with all rain regularly...it was a step above 09-10...we were just cold enough for snow in all the events last winter, we were just warm enough for rain in 97-98...I don't know what happened in 72-73, I think it was more bad luck than anything else.

[simpsonsbuff]

I think SLC is large. Metro area is over 1 mil I believe.

As is Buffalo... Buffalo's "city" population is also larger than SLC.

[baroclinic_instability]

I think SLC is large. Metro area is over 1 mil I believe.

It is bigger than that. If you consider the entire Wasatch Front Urban Area, it is over 2 million. And in a very cramped area. Some of the best lake effect snow right there, and most people don't know.

[A-L-E-X]

Rochester, Buffalo and Salt Lake City are all slightly over 1 million in population. If you take out the lake effect factor, you probably can eliminate all three cities from the snowiest city list, although Im not sure how much of Salt Lake City's snowfall comes from lake effect from the Great Salt Lake.

[tombo82685]

Rochester, Buffalo and Salt Lake City are all slightly over 1 million in population. If you take out the lake effect factor, you probably can eliminate all three cities from the snowiest city list, although Im not sure how much of Salt Lake City's snowfall comes from lake effect from the Great Salt Lake.

what about detroit?

[baroclinic_instability]

Outside of the Interstate 95 corridor, I can't think of any large American cities that see major snowstorms with great frequency other than Denver. Chicago and Minneapolis do, from time to time and Cleveland has a good lake effect set up..but that's about it...

Note: I do not consider Syracuse or Buffalo "large" cities. I suppose SLC is borderline.

Denver is actually rather dry and they don't frequently see very many large snowstorms. They need a good cutoff to develop over the 4 corners to establish the needed low level easterly upslope flow. Best setup is also with a good north wind to act as a cold air damn. They can get killed under that setup with massive historic storms, but overall, they don't see much action beyond arctic fronts every now and then plowing through into the plains. Denver can get quick bursts as the flow upslopes into the Palmer Divide, but thats it.

[A-L-E-X]

97-98 was just so strong it absolutely overwhelmed the country with Pacific Air for the most part, the AO was negative and the NAO was as well for good parts of that winter but there was no cold air to be brought in from Canada...the storm track was perfect, we got benchmark tracks with all rain regularly...it was a step above 09-10...we were just cold enough for snow in all the events last winter, we were just warm enough for rain in 97-98...I don't know what happened in 72-73, I think it was more bad luck than anything else.

Wow, it sounds like if the enso had been a tick weaker that could have been a really good winter-- the line is so fine sometimes lol. I remember there was an amazing ice storm well upstate and into Canada. And there was a snow event out on the Cape that was decent too.

In 1972-73, like 2001-02, there was a neg nao for a few weeks in the middle of winter, but we got a supressed storm track and both years got a historic snow storm down in the Carolinas. Different ENSO, but some comparisons can be made there. 2001-02 was another year that our cold air source in Canada was just not there so blocking wasnt of much help most of the season.

BTW I would consider 2001-02 our last truly terrible winter. We still had some decent events in 2006-07 and 2007-08.

[baroclinic_instability]

Rochester, Buffalo and Salt Lake City are all slightly over 1 million in population. If you take out the lake effect factor, you probably can eliminate all three cities from the snowiest city list, although Im not sure how much of Salt Lake City's snowfall comes from lake effect from the Great Salt Lake.

HUGE. I forecasted out there for a year, and without the lake and the Wasatch Front completely blocking up the flow, they would be as dry as the desert out east. That whole depression east of SLC is a void of nothing because it is so amazingly dry as west flow downslopes into the Salt Flats.

[A-L-E-X]

what about detroit?

Detroit is #11 and Minny is #16, both over 3 mil, Detroit over 4 mil

[A-L-E-X]

HUGE. I forecasted out there for a year, and without the lake and the Wasatch Front completely blocking up the flow, they would be as dry as the desert out east. That whole depression east of SLC is a void of nothing because it is so amazingly dry as west flow downslopes into the Salt Flats.

That must be an interesting climate with a huge lake like that and the elevation-- you must see some amazing gradients! Were you there when they had that "urban tornado?"

[baroclinic_instability]

Rochester, Buffalo and Salt Lake City are all slightly over 1 million in population. If you take out the lake effect factor, you probably can eliminate all three cities from the snowiest city list, although Im not sure how much of Salt Lake City's snowfall comes from lake effect from the Great Salt Lake.

SLC does awful in any flow but NW. It just so happens the long axis of the GSL is oriented NW-SE, and the only opening into the SLC Valley is towards the NW. The Wasatch Front then rises from 4200 feet to 11,000 feet right on the eastern edge in a dramatic rise, so all synoptic flow is "blocked" under stable flow/low froude number flows since the Wasatch Range is so long.

[A-L-E-X]

Im still waiting for NYC to get its first measured 30" snowstorm lol. We got close in 2006-- in a weak la nina. Philly also had its in a weak la nina, Jan 1996.

[SnowGoose69]

They obviously do well during the fall of El Ninos...72, 06, 97, 91 all in there.

[tombo82685]

Detroit is #11 and Minny is #16, both over 3 mil, Detroit over 4 mil

you could probably add indianapolis and columbus to the list of large cities with pretty decent snowfall avg

[baroclinic_instability]

The Top 13 Denver Snowstorms since 1946:

31.8 inches Mar 18, 2003

30.4 inches Nov 03, 1946

23.8 inches Dec 24, 1982

21.9 inches Oct 25, 1997

21.5 inches Nov 27, 1983

21.2 inches Nov 19, 1991

20.7 inches Dec 20, 2006

18.7 inches Mar 05, 1983

17.7 inches Nov 19, 1979

17.3 inches Apr 01, 1957

16.9 inches Mar 20, 1952

16.0 inches Oct 03, 1969

15.8 inches Apr 26, 1972

They've had some nice ones over the years..I think my point is valid.

Ah, well I guess I was questioning this:

"I can't think of any large American cities that see major snowstorms with great frequency other than Denver."

I agree though, they can get some historic ones, just not frequent, at least imo.

[A-L-E-X]

you could probably add indianapolis and columbus to the list of large cities with pretty decent snowfall avg

lol you know your big cities really well... indy and col are close in pop-- both around 1.8 mil, #34 and #32 respectively.

[tombo82685]

lol you know your big cities really well... indy and col are close in pop-- both around 1.8 mil, #34 and #32 respectively.

lol i saw you guys talking about and im bored so i just started going through them in my head lol

[SnowGoose69]

Indy/Detroit/Columbus don't do well for real big events because the lack of moisture source and they need a relatively infrequent low track to hit them...Wichita and Kansas City are probably more prone to big events.

[tombo82685]

milwaukee, would prob be a good one to, prob better than chicago with its further north latitude

[SnowGoose69]

Cue 06Z NAM...the least important run since the Mets signed Jose Lima to a minor league deal.

[baroclinic_instability]

That must be an interesting climate with a huge lake like that and the elevation-- you must see some amazing gradients! Were you there when they had that "urban tornado?"

Not there for the tornado, I think I was just starting college when that happened.

The climate is really funky. The state elevation ranges from 2000 feet at St. George to 13,500 feet at Kings Peak in the Uinta Range (also the largest E-W mountain range in the US). Very tough area to forecast for.

[A-L-E-X]

lol i saw you guys talking about and im bored so i just started going through them in my head lol

If you just go by official cities, there's only 9 cities with more than 1 mil pop, but if you go by metro areas, there's 52!

Out of those "official" 9, only 3 of them are in the north-- NYC, Philly and Chicago.

Detroit is fairly close though, #11 with a pop of 920,000 and Indy is at #14 with just over 800,000, Col at #16 at 770,000 Boston at #20 and Balt at #21 both with around 640,000

Denver is down around #24 with Milwaukee and DC #26 and #27 respectively, all around 600,000

IOW for "official" large cities, you'd have to say Chicago got the most snow, with NYC second. Though that will change once Detroit adds like 10% more population lol.

[tombo82685]

jeez look at the difference of the trof at h5 from the 3z srefs to 21z

[earthlight]

Slower and further west, again, through 15 hrs

[earthlight]

Tremendous shift west on the SREF's. Wow

[Inudaw]

jeez look at the difference of the trof at h5 from the 3z srefs to 21z

IF only the ridge in the west was over the mountains and not the plains. It would almost be ideal.

[baroclinic_instability]

If you just go by official cities, there's only 9 cities with more than 1 mil pop, but if you go by metro areas, there's 52!

Out of those "official" 9, only 3 of them are in the north-- NYC, Philly and Chicago.

Detroit is fairly close though, #11 with a pop of 920,000 and Indy is at #14 with just over 800,000, Col at #16 at 770,000 Boston at #20 and Balt at #21 both with around 640,000

Denver is down around #24 with Milwaukee and DC #26 and #27 respectively, all around 600,000

IOW for "official" large cities, you'd have to say Chicago got the most snow, with NYC second. Though that will change once Detroit adds like 10% more population lol.

I believe they lost over 1 million since their height, and I think the population is still dwindling, so that may be hard to do. Or maybe that is why you added the "lol" at the end, lol.

[A-L-E-X]

wow, I hope this is a foreshadowing for some good trends today and not just a slow tease lol.

[nzucker]

I'm wondering how the 1960s were so good to us despite the consistent Nina/-PDO pattern and -NAO. We definitely seem to be shifting into a similar pattern overall now.

We didn't have a constant La Niña in the 1960s, that was more the 1950s. We had three weak El Niño winters which are very favorable to snowfall; 63-64, 68-69, and 69-70 were all very good winters with colder than average temperatures in NYC with a weak Niño at the helm. The PDO also flipped positive briefly in 60-61, another historic winter, despite being in the middle of a -PDO decadal phase.

Philly has already completely whiffed on a snow season: It only recorded a trace from the winter of 1972-1973. Shows that strong El Ninos can suck royally as well.

It just depends on if they are west-based or east-based, which changes the tropical convection patterns that influence the location of ridges and troughs downstream from the Pacific Ocean. 72-73 and 97-98 were both east-based strong El Niños with warm waters stacked against the Peruvian coastline. This tends to eliminate favorable tropical forcing patterns from the MJO. We have done much better in west-based El Niño winters like 57-58, 02-03, and 09-10. In my opinion, the location of the ENSO event is more important than the strength, although a weak Niño is inevitably colder in the East than a strong one.

97-98 was just so strong it absolutely overwhelmed the country with Pacific Air for the most part, the AO was negative and the NAO was as well for good parts of that winter but there was no cold air to be brought in from Canada...the storm track was perfect, we got benchmark tracks with all rain regularly...it was a step above 09-10...we were just cold enough for snow in all the events last winter, we were just warm enough for rain in 97-98...I don't know what happened in 72-73, I think it was more bad luck than anything else.

We had a ton of cut-off lows in the Southeast during the 97-98 event, but they were unfortunately all too warm. The polar jet tends to retreat to northern Canada in a strong El Niño with the PV usually staying over Siberia, cutting off the cold air flow into the CONUS. 72-73 was a much colder winter and several systems just barely missed the NYC area, as you surmised. December 1972 had an historic arctic outbreak in the West, and the East was only slightly above normal that season despite the strong, east-based El Niño.

SLC does awful in any flow but NW. It just so happens the long axis of the GSL is oriented NW-SE, and the only opening into the SLC Valley is towards the NW. The Wasatch Front then rises from 4200 feet to 11,000 feet right on the eastern edge in a dramatic rise, so all synoptic flow is "blocked" under stable flow/low froude number flows since the Wasatch Range is so long.

I camped in the Mirror Lake Recreation Area near Salt Lake City this summer, was one of the most gorgeous places I have ever seen. The higher elevations are lush with wildflower meadows ablaze in color, dramatic waterfalls, crystal-clear lakes, etc. I found the forest to also be very beautiful in the region, definitely a favorite spot of mine and I only paid $3/night for a primitive camping space. I love Utah, it is amazing scenery and Salt Lake City seemed like a very picturesque, comfortable and safe place to live or visit.

[A-L-E-X]

and dont forget our great weak la ninas either, Zuck. That's my favorite ENSO lol. Both for our extremely hot summers, which I treasure, and for great snowfall winters. Really good for tropical season too!