NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Potential - Part 4

[mattinpa]

I wonder how it takes pretty much the same track with that sharper trof?

[forkyfork]

Oh well. I guess a little better than 12z had for the immediate NYC metro? The 500mb sharpening did sound more encouraging than before. Maybe this has room to shift a little west tomorrow if it continues.

i really liked the way 48 hrs looked

[RutgersWx92]

I thought the setup sounded better than the 12z (higher heights on east coast, sharper trough). Why, then, is the low close to the same position as before?

[famartin]

So while many models shifted west... the EC only went slightly west. No SECS for most in this region. I'm kinda glad to see it didn't flop back...

[nzucker]

the euro has the .1 line just east of nyc

With a 989mb low just southeast of the benchmark, I'd think NYC gets more than .1" QPF, especially with the trend towards more digging and a sharper trough with higher heights along the East Coast. I believe the QPF field is going to spread out significantly as we approach the event, and I think there is still a decent chance that NYC metro (particularly LI) sees a SECS/MECS from this system. Tonight's runs all showed an impressive trend towards a stronger northern stream and a more negatively tilted trough. I believe it would foolhardy to give up at this point, as we're a solid 3 days away and models tend to have about 100 mile track error at that forecast period. 100 miles west would mean a significant snowstorm for all of NYC metro and possibly into PHL.

[mattinpa]

interesting run, the trof was not as broad and more amplified, yet same solution...it must of just missed the phase

Interesting enough then to see what 12z brings. Thanks!

[weathercoins]

12z tomorrow is going to be really really interesting and telling.

[goldstar]

Still several more runs, I am not despairing because I think the main reason this phases farther east is the incoming pac jet. I dont know or think that the models can pick up the data to forecast how that ridge will react 72hrs from now as phasing is occuring.

I glean two things from the 00z suite tonite:

1: Models seem to be finally converging on a consensus: a phased storm

2: The timing and location of the phase is still TBD

I am not writing anything off with the amount of energy, and the fact that we are now approaching deep winter, anything, anything can happen.

[Analog96]

With a 989mb low just southeast of the benchmark, I'd think NYC gets more than .1" QPF, especially with the trend towards more digging and a sharper trough with higher heights along the East Coast. I believe the QPF field is going to spread out significantly as we approach the event, and I think there is still a decent chance that NYC metro (particularly LI) sees a SECS/MECS from this system. Tonight's runs all showed an impressive trend towards a stronger northern stream and a more negatively tilted trough. I believe it would foolhardy to give up at this point, as we're a solid 3 days away and models tend to have about 100 mile track error at that forecast period. 100 miles west would mean a significant snowstorm for all of NYC metro and possibly into PHL.

If everything stays where it is tomorrow, I feel good calling for 2-4 for NYC.

[jm1220]

i really liked the way 48 hrs looked

Yeah, that Day 2 chart actually looked more consolidated/sharp than the GFS had it. This might have room to shift west if the trend continues tomorrow. The Cape apparently gets destroyed with a blizzard, so it can't be that far off from us.

Overall, based on the play by play i'd rank this as a good Euro run. The next run or two will be really telling.

[winterwx21]

I thought the setup sounded better than the 12z (higher heights on east coast, sharper trough). Why, then, is the low close to the same position as before?

A moderate to strong La Nina will always find a way to mess up coastal storms for us.

[jm1220]

i really liked the way 48 hrs looked

Also, given the way the northern and southern features need to phase in a big way for us, the OV front running feature needs to be SECSiled as far away as possible.

[GD0815]

If everything stays where it is tomorrow, I feel good calling for 2-4 for NYC.

im not sure i feel confident with anything wrt to this storm!

[Collegestudent11]

To all the Meteorologists, what would be your ideal blend of 00z models if you were updating the nws forecast?

[BL03]

yea i feel 48hrs on the GFS, GGEM and Euro were good agreement but after that they each do there thing... Euro has the sharpest trof @ day 3 with the tighter closed off h5 than gfs. A slight improvement on day 3 h5 of euro and its game for phl - bos imo.

[Analog96]

To all the Meteorologists, what would be your ideal blend of 00z models if you were updating the nws forecast?

Prob 60% GFS, 40% Euro, toss out the GGEM

[A-L-E-X]

If everything stays where it is tomorrow, I feel good calling for 2-4 for NYC.

We need 3 inches at least out of this system to get NYC away from the bad December leads to bad season analogs lol.

[nzucker]

If everything stays where it is tomorrow, I feel good calling for 2-4 for NYC.

Yes, strongly agree; the position of the low pressure and the high ratios argue for at least an advisory event in NYC metro, assuming all stays the same. Eastern Long Island could actually see warning criteria snowfall with a track like this, especially if we see an enlargement of the QPF field.

[Analog96]

We need 3 inches at least out of this system to get NYC away from the bad December leads to bad season analogs lol.

40% chance of that iMO.

[Analog96]

Yes, strongly agree; the position of the low pressure and the high ratios argue for at least an advisory event in NYC metro, assuming all stays the same. Eastern Long Island could actually see warning criteria snowfall with a track like this, especially if we see an enlargement of the QPF field.

If it were closer to storm time, and I was working at NWS, I would put a watch up for Suffolk, as well as Southern Middlesex, new london in CT.

[jm1220]

We need 3 inches at least out of this system to get NYC away from the bad December leads to bad season analogs lol.

In a strong Nina like this, it's almost inevitable that we revert to a Lakes Cutter/SW flow pattern at some point. The second the blocking up north retreats, that's the first thing we'll see. Maybe we can get a few inches from a lucky overrunning setup, but in all likelihood this is the most favorable pattern we have until very late in the season. This definitely won't be anything like the strong Nino last year.

[nzucker]

If it were closer to storm time, and I was working at NWS, I would put a watch up for Suffolk, as well as Southern Middlesex, new london in CT.

How much QPF does GON see on this run of the Euro? And ISP?

[ARyan]

Something is not right, maybe I'm tired, but I've been told by a well respect forecaster and meteorologist that the heaviest snow falls NE of the 700mb low and that doesn't match up with Euro.

[Analog96]

How much QPF does GON see on this run of the Euro? And ISP?

I don't have access to that, I'm just going based on what other people described.

[A-L-E-X]

In a strong Nina like this, it's almost inevitable that we revert to a Lakes Cutter/SW flow pattern at some point. The second the blocking up north retreats, that's the first thing we'll see. Maybe we can get a few inches from a lucky overrunning setup, but in all likelihood this is the most favorable pattern we have until very late in the season. This definitely won't be anything like the strong Nino last year.

Yeah, Im hoping we get into a much better pattern later in Feb and March like in 56 when it (hopefully) weakens. Just get this thing over -1 lol.

[jm1220]

Yes, strongly agree; the position of the low pressure and the high ratios argue for at least an advisory event in NYC metro, assuming all stays the same. Eastern Long Island could actually see warning criteria snowfall with a track like this, especially if we see an enlargement of the QPF field.

I think it's a decent likelihood right now that from the William Floyd Parkway east (roughly Shirley to Rocky Point), a warning criteria snow takes place. The twin forks might actually get a really good event from this, like 8 or 10"+. These setups are very fragile though, especially since a heavy band loves to set up on the NW fringe of the cold conveyor belt and easily double or more the expected totals there. Or it could fall apart like the 12/19 event and leave less than expected.

[tombo82685]

I don't have access to that, I'm just going based on what other people described.

islp- .15-.2

gon- .25-.5

[famartin]

Gibbs pointed out to me (not on here) that only one ensemble member is more amplified than the GFS op. We're getting close enough so that's almost a red flag.

[Collegestudent11]

Gibbs pointed out to me (not on here) that only one ensemble member is more amplified than the GFS op. We're getting close enough so that's almost a red flag.

I would assume that the others are somewhere south and east of the OP, or in line with the OP?

[Absolute Humidity]

If a model has a seasonal trend, say 2009 euro favored and stronger SW ridge than theGFS NAM and euro prevailed that year, is it possible that the euro is losing its 100hr deadly zone around 72hr only to bring back its former solutions that were at 100hr +? Perhaps not as robust,but some form of a re-correction back, much like last weeks blurp runs that gave us a SECS and MECS then back to nothing at 60hr. Just wondering as the 48hr upper levels of tonights run sounded a bit better that the GFS's yet the result was less stellar. Perhaps EC will make a bigger improvement tomorrow 12Z. Any Mets care to elaborate?