Isotherm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If the Euro shifts east again today, we're in serious trouble, probably the same for most locales west of the outer Cape. The whole trough just looks broad, sheared out and weak until it's past us and it's over. I've got to say, the past 2 weeks has been the most annoying, frustrating model tracking I've ever weathered. Honestly even in the La Nina winter of 2007-08, I don't recall this much model waffling, but maybe that's just because we started tracking these threats from day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I have to say..this last week has been a total waste of my time..I think I should face facts that this is a strong Nina..and this winter will probably suck..listen it's gonna snow this winter..but I think to save myself stress and wait maybe 48 hours away..and maybe take a rest from this board..I need some sleep! I agree to a point..been following this storm since Sunday and I am hoping the Euro just didn't lead everyone down the primrose path only to lead to disappointment..With that said it has been on its own showing big hit so anyone believing that all along and disregarding other models will be more disappointed then everyone else if this storm doesn't at least give a little snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Ouch, not what I was anticipating for the 12z on the NAM and GFS. Based on what occured last week, I'm probably more nervous for the East Coast getting the shaft then I would be normally. Hopefully NYC/Long Island can squeeze out a nice snowfall still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 As I pointed out in a previous thread, if it weren't for the ECMWF, the forecasts would be for this to slide out to sea rather harmlessly and nobody would think twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Once again people that wanna jump off the bridge due to the gfs are not thinking clearly because the gfs is known for not being too good with southern stream events and the euro is much better than it. Id appreciate some met support here but the gfs and nam have in the past when the euro showed an east coast storm as it got closer to the event the gfs trended to it which is what its done lately. Correct? Only it isn't just the GFS. Euro is the only one with any real hope (others have fleeting hope), and it trended the wrong way last night. Coupled with the fact most mets and experts have already said over the past few days a major storm would go against all logic due to nina, expect the worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 So Dr. No is an outlier now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 the 500 mb setups on the gfs and nam at 48 hours are very different yet, the same solution? imo, it seems like the gfs and euro are trending towards a GEM like solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 this December reminds me of a colder version of Dec 88..strong nina year..storms just missing to our east..and then the pattern flipped around Christmas..at least Feb and March were not bad..and we were almost clocked in late feb..oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Only it isn't just the GFS. Euro is the only one with any real hope (others have fleeting hope), and it trended the wrong way last night. Coupled with the fact most mets and experts have already said over the past few days a major storm would go against all logic due to nina, expect the worse. I'm pretty sure only the weeniest of people were buying the Euro runs verbatim, with a foot plus from RDU-PWM. DCA-LGA was always the corridor with biggest chance to be screwed because of the reliance on the timing of the phase to bring the surface low back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I've got to say, the past 2 weeks has been the most annoying, frustrating model tracking I've ever weathered. Honestly even in the La Nina winter of 2007-08, I don't recall this much model waffling, but maybe that's just because we started tracking these threats from day 8. I keep telling myself not to take models serious until 72 hrs and within..of course those Full blown Blizzards the Euro has been showing for the past few days makes it hard to ignore the model runs until u get within 3 days..If this storm misses I wont make that mistake agin.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 So Dr. No is an outlier now? For another hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 yet, the same solution? imo, it seems like the gfs and euro are trending towards a GEM like solution. And Tony (Rainshadow) said the best model this month has been the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 So Dr. No is an outlier now? Yea i'll laugh so hard if it still gives us a nice storm at 12z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm hoping the GGEM somehow sees something the NAM and GFS don't in the next 1/2 hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm hoping the GGEM somehow sees something the NAM and GFS don't in the next 1/2 hour. UKIE is also like the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 And Tony (Rainshadow) said the best model this month has been the GEM. It definitely has, it had maybe 1-2 poor runs with each system and that was it as opposed to most others which were too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm hoping the GGEM somehow sees something the NAM and GFS don't in the next 1/2 hour. Don't see how, it started trending this way at 00Z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm pretty sure only the weeniest of people were buying the Euro runs verbatim, with a foot plus from RDU-PWM. DCA-LGA was always the corridor with biggest chance to be screwed because of the reliance on the timing of the phase to bring the surface low back west. Well, agreed, but at the same time board usage only spiked to all time records because the Euro showed a bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 As I pointed out in a previous thread, if it weren't for the ECMWF, the forecasts would be for this to slide out to sea rather harmlessly and nobody would think twice. Pretty much since Tues aside from the GGEM 3 runs - all other guidance was out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It definitely has, it had maybe 1-2 poor runs with each system and that was it as opposed to most others which were too far west. UKIE never showed a hit with the last storm and this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Don't see how, it started trending this way at 00Z last night. Yeah, it appears that way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 UKIE never showed a hit with the last storm and this storm. It was WAYYYY too far east though, its been overly suppressed for both events, the last even was way closer than it indicated and this one will probably be west of what it has shown on many of its runs as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Opinions please? I think it would be wise to wait till the 12z euro comes out to make any statements like bad trends jumping the boat this early still I think would be premature don't you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Bottom line here is this - don't rely on models 3+ days i out... Extreme solutions 4-5 days out withe shaky support will usually fail.. If you want to stay sane just deal with trying to forecast 3 to perhaps 4 days out.. Anything beyond that is just unrealistic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Cue up the weenie phrases now....."Its still 72 hrs away", "The Euro is King", "The GFS is garbage" I take a lot of my cues from the red taggers here. They are generally very conservative for obvious reasons but will get bullish when things look right........I haven't seen a real bullish post by hardly any of them in the past 48 hrs. Nail in the coffin comes in T-minus 100 minutes give or take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Cue up the weenie phrases now....."Its still 72 hrs away", "The Euro is King", "The GFS is garbage" I take a lot of my cues from the red taggers here. They are generally very conservative for obvious reasons but will get bullish when things look right........I haven't seen a real bullish post by hardly any of them in the past 48 hrs. Nail in the coffin comes in T-minus 100 minutes give or take You will know if the 12z GFS is garbage when the ensembles come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well, one positive we can take from this...we now see the trend that's setting up for the season. Also, better to have guidance lose this all in one shot like now than at the last second. It sucks but what can we do? Someone take a boat out to the ENSO region and drop a few million gallons of boiling water? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Cue up the weenie phrases now....."Its still 72 hrs away", "The Euro is King", "The GFS is garbage" I take a lot of my cues from the red taggers here. They are generally very conservative for obvious reasons but will get bullish when things look right........I haven't seen a real bullish post by hardly any of them in the past 48 hrs. Nail in the coffin comes in T-minus 100 minutes give or take I honestly just want to see it go 150 miles east, just end this now so I can start sleeping and not waking up early and what not......I don't expect it will do that though but it will likely go east again, even if its slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 UKIE had an upgrade recently no? That may explain why it's performing ok lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Bottom line here is this - don't rely on models 3+ days i out... Extreme solutions 4-5 days out withe shaky support will usually fail.. If you want to stay sane just deal with trying to forecast 3 to perhaps 4 days out.. Anything beyond that is just unrealistic... Agree, or if you like bridge jumping ,buy what their showing the 4-5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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