JonClaw Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I have the strangest feeling this will be a nowcasting event. Or at the very least, a very, very rough 24 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GGEM to 48 - way south, looks like 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I have the strangest feeling this will be a nowcasting event. Or at the very least, a very, very rough 24 hours... It will definitely come down to the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 21Z SREFs are also well west of the 15Z SREF. These mean that the NAM is likely a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The GGEM will still miss but at least it's digging more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 And look at all the moisture in the Gulf. 0z UKMET is out - it's still east for everybody but looks west of 12z, and it digs WAY more. I'm not amped about the RGEM. The gulf moisture is sliding east off the coast. Any eventual coastal low - probably well offshore - will incorporate primarily Atlantic moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The GGEM will still miss but at least it's digging more. Trending is key. If it comes west, improvements were made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The GGEM will still miss but at least it's digging more. i rarely post at these hours but you all need to let these runs finish and stop saying its gonna do this and that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I have the strangest feeling this will be a nowcasting event. Or at the very least, a very, very rough 24 hours... NWS-NYC has held off and not yet updated their evening forecasts. Maybe when they do they will up slightly their PoPs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hohnywx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It will be interesting to see. My guess is that NYC could wind up in a 3"-6"/4"-8" snowfall (similar amounts along the Jersey shore and perhaps down the Delmarva) with parts of southern New England having the best chance for 10" or more. That's not yet assured, but my confidence has increased with respect to the possibility of a moderate snowfall. Hopefully, the trough will be sharper so that more of the Middle Atlantic region can get into the snowfall. Just posted by Don in the main thread...coming from him, that is some of the best news all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 i rarely post at these hours but you all need to let these runs finish and stop saying its gonna do this and that. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Does that look like light snow with the northern stream by 48 hrs. on the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Just posted by Don in the main thread...coming from him, that is some of the best news all night. That's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NWS-NYC has held off and not yet updated their evening forecasts. Maybe when they do they will up slightly their PoPs. Because they don't update it until 4am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GGEM so far has much higher heights along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GGEM is quite a bit closer. And at least its basic evolution matches the other models. Still far offshore however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GGEM is still a whiff it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Here's the QPF map...definitely quite a bit improved. Last three runs of the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NWS-NYC has held off and not yet updated their evening forecasts. Maybe when they do they will up slightly their PoPs. Generally, updates to NWS forecasts beyond the first 24 hours are limited to the standard packages issued around 4AM and 4PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GFS ensembles actually shifted east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GGEM is still a whiff it looks like yeah closer than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GEFS means are a big, big whiff too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GGEM is OTS, but it is quite a bit west of 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Another broad/weak/sheared apart piece of crap solution from the GGEM. Hopefully the Euro amplifies back west and the GFS ensembles agree with this solution, or I have to think it's overcorrecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GEFS means are a big, big whiff too. Hey! They finally shifted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GEFS means are a big, big whiff too. not saying they are right or wrong, but the 18z gfs ens were well east to and look what the 0z gfs did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 yeah closer than 12z The storm is much stronger at 72 hours 993mb vs. (12z)1000mb and maybe 25-50 miles further west at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GEFS means are a big, big whiff too. Seems like a product of lower resolution. I noticed it is also slower than the 18z ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GEFS means are a big, big whiff too. :axe: Horrible news. I'm starting to think this GFS op run was just a fluke run now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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