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NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Potential - Part 4


am19psu

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And look at all the moisture in the Gulf.

0z UKMET is out - it's still east for everybody but looks west of 12z, and it digs WAY more.

I don't know. Could that be a negative ... "robbing" energy? Just wondering. I think I remember a near miss a few years ago that was a result of convection in the gulf. Hope I'm wrong about that.

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This has been the most up and down roller coaster ride I have ever seen. I posted after the 12z runs that we were all finaly put out of our misery after the 12z euro finaly caved. This storm simply won't die....I hate to use this phrase but it almost seems as if its destiny that this will be a MECS.

If that second S/W dropping down through the midwest manages to phase in time the old euro run MECS are definitly on the table.

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You aint kidding, normally youd think a slight nw correction was almost likely. I dont get that feeling lately, even with the gfs. Last week the models were bias west and the storm corrected east. Hoping this is not the case in 3 days.

GGEM in a few then the ensembles, uk, ecm..........

I think it will edge back to the east. My unscientific reasoning is that the modeled upper levels look pretty good to me. And yet the SLP still takes an offshore track, especially with respect to the mid-Atlantic. This has been modeled as an offshore storm for almost a week, so the tendency is clearly in that direction. It's hard for me to believe the ultimate upper level evolution will look as great as tonight's GFS run, which is why I believe this will track slightly further offshore.

But I'm definitely intrigued by this moderate hit. Particularly because my expectations have been low all along and we are now entering the short term with a big storm within striking distance. I have to remind myself, however, that it's not uncommon for an operational run to resemble any of the previous run's individual ensemble members. Until the ensemble spread (as well as inter-model spread) decreases, I cannot take any operational run too seriously.

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