chubbs Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow back from dead. A nice step to the big Euro runs. This is the run I was expecting last night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 After what happened last week and after what the GFS just did, it wouldn't shock me at all now if the EC went right back to a MECS. Thanks again. Are you back home for the holiday's to possibly enjoy in person what we are seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 After what happened last week and after what the GFS just did, it wouldn't shock me at all now if the EC went right back to a MECS. Is that based in science or is it your inner weenie talking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 After what happened last week and after what the GFS just did, it wouldn't shock me at all now if the EC went right back to a MECS. If the 00Z GEM shows a MECS/HECS this board is going to go into armaggedon mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 A little deatil would help pallie, since the UK was half way to the Azores. Well west. Not quite a scenario like the GFS, but a tremendous shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 So who's staying up for the Euro tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Thanks again. Are you back home for the holiday's to possibly enjoy in person what we are seeing? Not yet, but I will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Is that based in science or is it your inner weenie talking? There is some "crude observation" behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well west. Not quite a scenario like the GFS, but a tremendous shift west. Thanks snow. If you get a map - please post. The UK usual updates at 1:00 on the metro site but ive seen other maos prior. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If the 00Z GEM shows a MECS/HECS this board is going to go into armaggedon mode. When does the GEM start to roll out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The NOGAPs now crosses 40N/74W with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GGEM to 12 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/527_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 is TOTALLY different than the 00z RGEM ______ is totally different from the _______ how many times have we heard that in the last 4 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 And look at all the moisture in the Gulf. 0z UKMET is out - it's still east for everybody but looks west of 12z, and it digs WAY more. I don't know. Could that be a negative ... "robbing" energy? Just wondering. I think I remember a near miss a few years ago that was a result of convection in the gulf. Hope I'm wrong about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 72hrs UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 So who's staying up for the Euro tonight? Man I would but I gotta get up and go christmas shopping tomorrow. Rofl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The NOGAPs now crosses 40N/74W with the low. Keansburg, NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If the 00Z GEM shows a MECS/HECS this board is going to go into armaggedon mode. Might need to bring some weenies back from the dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I meant 40N/66w!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GGEM - 36 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/530_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Thanks snow. If you get a map - please post. The UK usual updates at 1:00 on the metro site but ive seen other maos prior. T No problem! I'll try to get graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Not yet, but I will be. Great - I hope you bring us good tidings and a big snowstorm. Merry Christmas, Happy Holiday's & Happy New Year to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow, the NOGAPS shifted way west and stronger. At 12z it crossed 40N at 60W! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 72hrs UKMET Darn ukmet hasnt been within 300 miles of a hit once. A UK track like the gfs would have been a 'trend' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This has been the most up and down roller coaster ride I have ever seen. I posted after the 12z runs that we were all finaly put out of our misery after the 12z euro finaly caved. This storm simply won't die....I hate to use this phrase but it almost seems as if its destiny that this will be a MECS. If that second S/W dropping down through the midwest manages to phase in time the old euro run MECS are definitly on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow, the NOGAPS shifted way west and stronger. At 12z it crossed 40N at 60W! And NOGAPS is almost always the farthest east. That is a good sign to see it move so far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow, the NOGAPS shifted way west and stronger. At 12z it crossed 40N at 60W! That might actually be the best news of the night so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The NOGAPs now crosses 40N/74W with the low. More good news and let us salute all our service men and women for their efforts to defend the U.S. and our national security interests as member of our armed forces.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 More good news and let us salute all our service men and women for their efforts to defend the U.S. and our national security interests as member of our armed forces.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 You aint kidding, normally youd think a slight nw correction was almost likely. I dont get that feeling lately, even with the gfs. Last week the models were bias west and the storm corrected east. Hoping this is not the case in 3 days. GGEM in a few then the ensembles, uk, ecm.......... I think it will edge back to the east. My unscientific reasoning is that the modeled upper levels look pretty good to me. And yet the SLP still takes an offshore track, especially with respect to the mid-Atlantic. This has been modeled as an offshore storm for almost a week, so the tendency is clearly in that direction. It's hard for me to believe the ultimate upper level evolution will look as great as tonight's GFS run, which is why I believe this will track slightly further offshore. But I'm definitely intrigued by this moderate hit. Particularly because my expectations have been low all along and we are now entering the short term with a big storm within striking distance. I have to remind myself, however, that it's not uncommon for an operational run to resemble any of the previous run's individual ensemble members. Until the ensemble spread (as well as inter-model spread) decreases, I cannot take any operational run too seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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