WeatherFox Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This is why no storm should be written off a this range! I knew DT's defeat post tonight would help us. DT will get an attaboy if NYC and vicinity verifies. For our section of the world he called it in his probability map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I can't believe what the GFS just shot out. The weather god's want to keep everybody on the hook for at least another 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 realistically how far west could this trend? the damn thing is still roughly 70 hours away. IF the GFS is right with the northern stream digging into OK that creates a slingshot scenario io the seaboard. Then it could hypothetically come west and wrap up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Hey guys, the 00z RGEM @ 48 hours looks VERY good for a possible phase. Note the backside energy really digging southward. Compare that to the 12z GGEM @ 60 hours which looks nothing similar!!! http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_060.jpg Wow huge trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NJ is on the razors edge, literally a 50 mile shift west over the next 2 days would put most of NJ into a SECS+ situation. The back edge of these types storms can be brutal. Im sure E PA remembers Dec 2000. You aint kidding, normally youd think a slight nw correction was almost likely. I dont get that feeling lately, even with the gfs. Last week the models were bias west and the storm corrected east. Hoping this is not the case in 3 days. GGEM in a few then the ensembles, uk, ecm.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow. RGEM looks really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Either the NAM or GFS is astonishingly wrong right now. I think it's the NAM, as it is known to be horribly inaccurate more than 48 hours out. What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray8002 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Just took a look at the RGEM and it looks real interesting folks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Hey guys, the 00z RGEM @ 48 hours looks VERY good for a possible phase. Note the backside energy really digging southward. Compare that to the 12z GGEM @ 60 hours which looks nothing similar!!! http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_060.jpg Wow huge trends. Interesting stuff! Will be quite interested in the 0Z Ukie and ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 IF the GFS is right with the northern stream digging into OK that creates a slingshot scenario io the seaboard. Then it could hypothetically come west and wrap up. Got to love the 100+ knot jet streak coming due south out of Central Canada heading to the base of that trough!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The RGEM looks good, I definitely noticed that, for the first time it differs from the NAM in probably about a 6-8 run sequence...be wary of the GFS though guys, it was wrong being too far east on the last system for the Cape and Islands...it may be wrong this time being west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Hey guys, the 00z RGEM @ 48 hours looks VERY good for a possible phase. Note the backside energy really digging southward. Compare that to the 12z GGEM @ 60 hours which looks nothing similar!!! http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_060.jpg Wow huge trends. And look at all the moisture in the Gulf. 0z UKMET is out - it's still east for everybody but looks west of 12z, and it digs WAY more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Does anyone else hate the word "trend"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Got to love the 100+ knot jet streak coming due south out of Central Canada heading to the base of that trough!! it wants to get the GOM involved seemingly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow. RGEM looks really good. tonights GFS run was as pleasant a surprise as the 6 runs of the EC earlier this week....I am quite surprised that it has turned....lets hope the GGEm and EC follow suit.... I also think there is a lot of room for the GFS to bring this further west and slow down considering how big that 50/50 low is and how string the block is.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Does anyone else hate the word "trend"? It's your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 RGEM is still a hair too far east for me..That energy needs to be in Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I can't believe this... the king might not be dead after all... but it definitely seems to have big problems with systems coming ashore on the west coast because this would be the second week, the second system, in a row where it had a major flux as the system came ashore and then (possibly) went right back to the solution it had before it was ashore. Eagerly awaiting the EC to see if the king has been resuscitated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Ray Martin, please tell us what you think. Thanks a lot. edited: you beat me to the punch . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Does anyone else hate the word "trend"? Yes Im trending that way too . The only trend with this storm was the time variance and phasing. Perhaps the trend will be to catch things at the right time to salvage some white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 LOL this board just lit up in the last 60 minutes.. Love it. Now I am resigned to another late night euro showdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I don't know if I have the heart to stay up until the Euro, maybe I will play some PS3 or watch Christmas Vacation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray8002 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Did anyone see what Glenn "Hurricane" said on NBC10?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Whaaa? I just got back home and took peek at the 500mb at 62 and nearly ***** myself. .5 - .75 back on the table IMBY. Gonna be a long Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Just got back and looked at the 18z and 0z GFS. There's... hope?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 0Z Ukie is west of 12Z. Another good sign... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Did anyone see what Glenn "Hurricane" said on NBC10?? He is smart can u link it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Ray Martin, please tell us what you think. Thanks a lot. edited: you beat me to the punch . After what happened last week and after what the GFS just did, it wouldn't shock me at all now if the EC went right back to a MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Earthlight, maybe true, but the RGEM is a huge change from its 12z and 18z runs, and the 12z ggem is TOTALLY different than the 00z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 0Z Ukie is west of 12Z. A little deatil would help pallie, since the UK was half way to the Azores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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