NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Potential - Part 4

[LVblizzard]

Northern shortwave is stronger at hr12.

Not good, but 2 things are positive about this run so far, the s/w is a little slower and there's more ridging out west.

[Snow_Miser]

Not good, but 2 things are positive about this run so far, the s/w is a little slower and there's more ridging out west.

I really can't tell. These details are slight, and will probably not impact the eventual outcome of the GFS which is OTS.

[goldstar]

IS it just me or does the ridging look farther west on this run?

[ARyan]

Not good, but 2 things are positive about this run so far, the s/w is a little slower and there's more ridging out west.

Yes. Even more so compared to 12z.

[Allsnow]

it seem like the north stream is digging in more and sharper...also a bit higher hgts along the east coast at hr 27

[ARyan]

Southern s/w is still slower through hr21.

[Snow_Miser]

IS it just me or does the ridging look farther west on this run?

It looks slightly east to me.

Also, s/w is slower than 18Z.

[tombo82685]

Southern s/w is still slower through hr21.

i dont think the speed is the issue anymore with the s/w. The problem is it just gets sheared out as it progresses east.

[LVblizzard]

Any bit of higher heights along the east coast is important. That's what allows the storm to amplify and move up the coast.

However I still don't think this run will do it.

[goldstar]

sorry still looks west, even your line suggests it

[IsentropicLift]

It looks slightly east to me.

for one thing..it does look like the ridge axis has more of a neutral tilt this run

[earthlight]

Wow. At 42 hours the GFS is really, really trying. This is going to be exceptionally close.

At the very least...the ups and downs/drama the first few weeks of winter have been awesome.

[nzucker]

More digging this run, especially with the northern stream. 546dm contour is in NE Iowa at 24 hours on 0z GFS compared to central Wisconsin at 30 hours on 18z GFS. Still might not be enough but this threat is not over yet.

[Snow_Miser]

sorry still looks west, even your line suggests it

Use Montana and Arizona as reference points.

[ARyan]

i dont think the speed is the issue anymore with the s/w. The problem is it just gets sheared out as it progresses east.

The situation looks like it's improved a little bit but I think this one is over anyway. Too little too late.

[Riptide]

Wow. At 42 hours the GFS is really, really trying. This is going to be exceptionally close.

At the very least...the ups and downs/drama the first few weeks of winter have been awesome.

Do you see that vorticity over Kansas? wow

[earthlight]

45 hrs the northern stream has dug as far southwest as Oklahoma. Wow.

[earthlight]

Do you see that vorticity over Kansas? wow

Yeah, its a significant feature. How irritating it will be if the models trend just enough west to scrape the coast.

[Allsnow]

wow at hr 48 this trough is trying so hard to go negative.....

[nzucker]

45 hrs the northern stream has dug as far southwest as Oklahoma. Wow.

Heights are definitely lower on the East Coast, though, which may be a problem.

[Snow_Miser]

A neutral trough? At this time on the 18Z, it was still positively tilted.

0Z at 36 hours. Neutral Trough.

[Riptide]

Yeah, its a significant feature. How irritating it will be if the models trend just enough west to scrape the coast.

Possible, it happened on 18z.

[Radders]

At 48, the orientation and sharpness of the trough looks much better.

[earthlight]

Closed off H5 over Indiana

[chubbs]

Looks like it will dig all the way to the gulf and phase with the southern stream. Will be interesting to see where it ends up.

[LVblizzard]

That piece of northern stream energy squashing all the heights on the east coast needs to get the hell out of the way.

[ARyan]

That piece of northern stream energy squashing all the heights on the east coast needs to get the hell out of the way.

Oh. I see what you're talking about now...

[Bobby]

Heights are definitely lower on the East Coast, though, which may be a problem.

Funny as I thought they looked slightly higher but that is with my untrained eye.

[SmokeEater]

The situation looks like it's improved a little bit but I think this one is over anyway. Too little too late.

How about we wait until the run is over to say it's over, lol.

[LVblizzard]

Precip shield looks very slightly west of 18z at 54.