NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Potential - Part 4

[tombo82685]

what is kind of interesting, is the upper level low that generates snow. That could be a surprise in future runs to some locations maybe getting an inch or so from that.

[tombo82685]

I'm seeing that. Is there anything that can narrow the trof? Earlier phase?

you need the northern stream to dig further, its just out running the southern stream i believe.

[THEREALTOR1]

Just to ask a dumb question that may be obvious to others, but i'm curious, if that L off the NW pacific coast were weaker than indicated or positioned more to the west, would that allow the ridge to build more to the west, and in doing so allow the L in the SE to potentially dig further S? If so wouldn't that essentially "slow" the eastward progression down, and possibly allow more of a neutral/negative tilt to our trough? Is it possible that the NW pac "L" is what the Euro was keying in on being weaker and/or positioned more westwardly, hence allowing our storm to come up the coast? I honestly am just trying to learn, and am just wondering if I have any sort of clue what i'm looking at.

[Absolute Humidity]

Interesting to see some precip at 78, I wonder if there is surprise under that Newly formed ULL

[Parsley]

what is kind of interesting, is the upper level low that generates snow. That could be a surprise in future runs to some locations maybe getting an inch or so from that.

yup, that may be what we have to "hope" for.

[NorthShoreWx]

Huge hit for Nova Scotia

[Isotherm]

Just to ask a dumb question that may be obvious to others, but i'm curious, if that L off the NW pacific coast were weaker than indicated or positioned more to the west, would that allow the ridge to build more to the westerly, and in doing so allow the L in the SE to potentially dig further S? If so wouldn't that essentially "slow" the eastward progression down, and possibly allow more of a neutral/negative tilt to our trough? Is it possible that the NW pac "L" is what the Euro was keying in on being weaker and/or positioned more westwardly, hence allowing our storm to come up the coast? I honestly am just trying to learn, and am just wondering if I have any sort of clue what i'm looking at.

The ridge axis out West was always depicted on modelling to be a bit east of the classic postion, i.e. Boise ID, which put this event at high risk of being a near miss to the SE. If the low in the NE PAC was further west, yes the ridge would also be further west and would likely allow more time at least for the nern stream to dive into the southern s/w, thereby phasing and tilting the trough negative in time for the east coast. But with the orientation we've got, we really need that northern stream to dive in quickly and far south in order to pick up this southern wave before it reaches the SE coast. Otherwise it'll be too little too late and the phasing of the branches will occur SE of us.

[forkyfork]

it would be nice if e-wall's SREF page would update the other panels besides the 500mb charts... some of them are showing a huge it

at least it's an increase from 0 to 3 showing hits

[tmagan]

Henry Marguisity thinks this could be a nice surprise snowfall for Philly and NYC from the ULL.

It would be what today is, a coating. The only thing is if you want snow, I still don't trust the NAM in this anomalous flow pattern, but other than that I said a couple of days ago that this was going to take a track nearly exactly to the last storm, so today's happenings do not surprise me.

[TropicalWX]

weather channel just called dusting to 2 inches for philly

[Ridingtime]

Henry Margusity is one of the worst professional weather mets I've ever encountered in my history of keeping up with weather. Just sayin

[famartin]

what is kind of interesting, is the upper level low that generates snow. That could be a surprise in future runs to some locations maybe getting an inch or so from that.

For this reason, I will keep watching the model runs. There's hope for a small accumulation. A SECS is off the table, though.

[tombo82685]

it would be nice if e-wall's SREF page would update the other panels besides the 500mb charts... some of them are showing a huge it

at least it's an increase from 0 to 3 showing hits

heres the tot pcn

[CooL]

[tombo82685]

For this reason, I will keep watching the model runs. There's hope for a small accumulation. A SECS is off the table, though.

if i recall correctly, for the best shot you need it to track over or just south of you correct?

[forkyfork]

heres the tot pcn

i am not on board for a big storm anymore, but at least this is the first sref run with at least one member showing 1" LE

[David Reimer]

If you're going to post dynamic images it's better to save them and upload them to a hosting service. Otherwise down the road all you will see is a live image for that date.

[LVblizzard]

The common theme in the 2 SREF members with a hit is the lead northern stream wave. That wave, as mentioned before, doesn't allow the heights to rise on the east coast. Those 2 SREF members have a very weak reflection of that, much weaker than any other model.

[mattinpa]

Should be an interesting 00z GFS run. I don't think a light-moderate snow is out of the question. And we've seen models trend towards SECS in two days - granted last year was a different pattern, but it can be done. Just not likely.

[famartin]

if i recall correctly, for the best shot you need it to track over or just south of you correct?

Generally speaking, yes.

[ChescoWx]

Bad news Matt...JB has been keying on this the last couple days....with his recent medium term forecasts....this might be in trouble.

Should be an interesting 00z GFS run. I don't think a light-moderate snow is out of the question. And we've seen models trend towards SECS in two days - granted last year was a different pattern, but it can be done. Just not likely.

[mattinpa]

Bad news Matt...JB has been keying on this the last couple days....with his recent medium term forecasts....this might be in trouble.

Oh, no doubt about that. We need one of those Christmas miracles or something like that Eagles' comeback over the Giants.

[ChescoWx]

I see Henry M is focusing like JB on an "artic front" that they see may be a focus for "enhanced" snows over SE PA. Will that help hits to the website??

quote name='mattinpa' timestamp='1293160884' post='167152']

Oh, no doubt about that. We need one of those Christmas miracles or something like that Eagles' comback over the Giants.

[lman]

Oh, no doubt about that. We need one of those Christmas miracles or something like that Eagles' comeback over the Giants.

Yes - I feel like that is possible for some reason. A sudden change on all the models to the Euro (965 mb stall over the Delmarva coast depiction) of a few days ago would be equivalent to the DJax walk off punt return. I can only wish! It is Christmas....

[WeatherFox]

For this reason, I will keep watching the model runs. There's hope for a small accumulation. A SECS is off the table, though.

Just a trace on the 00Z NAM for KLGA

[ARyan]

GFS has initialized. Shortwave is slightly weaker.

[ARyan]

Northern shortwave is *slightly* stronger through hr9.

[Snow_Miser]

GFS has initialized... good luck folks.

[ARyan]

Northern shortwave is stronger at hr12.

[Snow_Miser]

0Z GFS at 12 hours out. h5 has a closed low... but will likely re-open as past model runs suggest.