Stormlover74 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well I remember in '96 places like Pittsburgh and State College getting hammered when they were supposed to be more in the 4 to 8" range, northern fringe. Of course the insane sharp cutoff gave Erie and Albany next to nothing. That could also be that the track ended up further north and closer to the coast. But again it depends on development. That storm was loaded with moisture. This one won't be until it hits the coast. I know this is weenie-ish...but how often do we get storms of this magnitude that track just inside the benchmark that don't manage to get sig precip back to i-95 and slightly west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Damn.. a faster solution wouldn't be that good I assume, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Damn.. a faster solution wouldn't be that good I assume, right? No not at all you want it to be slower so the northern stream can phase and turn the trough negative in time southern wave being too quick will allow it to escape to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 GFS coming in a lot slower than 0z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 out to 66.. nothing much different.. vorticity is all sheared out like the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I know this is weenie-ish...but how often do we get storms of this magnitude that track just inside the benchmark that don't manage to get sig precip back to i-95 and slightly west? I honestly don't know. Its not easy to research non events. Ray Martin was going to try to look into it, which I would think is a very worthwhile study, non events that were forecast to be events at one (reasonable) time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Still looks like the northern stream is not digging far enough S and is more like SE Gotta get this to swing negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 it's headed northeast, out to sea... the trough is still too open. It needs to close off.. the vorticity is too sheared out all over place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 As with all storms of this magnitude, heavy snow to nearly no snow within 60 miles. My WAG would be a final track that will come in just inside of the benchmark. OP models aside, that is where all the ensemble noise is pointing toward. Happy Holidays Everyone! That's quite a narrow cutoff and doesn't seem reasonable, especially based on what is currently being discussed. Any reason for your thought? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Someone in the other thread mentioned how the wx in Cali sounds more like an el-nino......that's not necessarily true considering el-nino winters arent wet in southern cali. It's def between a nino and a nina -- weak nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This is going to be east of 6z, probably not by a lot, but some. Trough is broader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Trough is broader than 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 at 81 now.. it's going to graze southeastern new england with a moderate snowfall most likely EDIT: Perhaps with only a light snowfall.. it is rather east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hr 81 ots......the trough seems to be a bit further east this run...not good at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 it's headed northeast, out to sea... the trough is still too open. It needs to close off.. the vorticity is too sheared out all over place. this really is beginning to feel like last week.. I know the run hasn't finished... We have to all remember there is a reason why trying to predict weather beyond 4 days out is so difficult.. In any event hoping for the best!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The only one seeing moderate snowfall this run is the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It could become like 0z last night where the operational was east of the ensembles. Surely, the euro is superior at this range and the GFS and Euro should compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If the Euro shifts east again today, we're in serious trouble, probably the same for most locales west of the outer Cape. The whole trough just looks broad, sheared out and weak until it's past us and it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Once again people that wanna jump off the bridge due to the gfs are not thinking clearly because the gfs is known for not being too good with southern stream events and the euro is much better than it. Id appreciate some met support here but the gfs and nam have in the past when the euro showed an east coast storm as it got closer to the event the gfs trended to it which is what its done lately. Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 6z GFS closed off at 500mb east of LI 12z GFS closes off at 500mb east of Maine. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 there's 2 types of vorticity... curvature and shear.. it's very obvious looking at the 500 mb GFS that it is going nuts on creating shear vorticity due to the extreme gradient of the height contours with respect to the large open trough with basically little wind. We need a consolidated area of curvature vorticity in a wave pattern that is a bit tighter than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 12Z UKMET is on par with the 12Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I have to say..this last week has been a total waste of my time..I think I should face facts that this is a strong Nina..and this winter will probably suck..listen it's gonna snow this winter..but I think to save myself stress and wait maybe 48 hours away..and maybe take a rest from this board..I need some sleep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 guess there is a reason why there's never been a KU in a strong nina...models really struggling this year whatever the end outcome is here..all over the place.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I have to say..this last week has been a total waste of my time..I think I should face facts that this is a strong Nina..and this winter will probably suck..listen it's gonna snow this winter..but I think to save myself stress and wait maybe 48 hours away..and maybe take a rest from this board..I need some sleep! This is exactly what happened during the winters of the late 1980's and early 1990's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 the 500 mb setups on the gfs and nam at 48 hours are very different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This solution looks quite familiar. In these types of winters, you want the models to have the storm to be progged to bomb off the Fla coast in the day 5-7 range, and even then it may develop too far north for this region, as remembered from a certain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Bad trends today. One difference between GFS and Euro has been trailing piece of vorticity that dives from Dakotas. Was very sharp on Euro and dove all the way to gulf to phase with southern stream but trended flatter on Euro ast night.. Has never been very sharp on GFS leading to flatter overall trough and slower phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 12z UKIE hour 72: Precip: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I have to say..this last week has been a total waste of my time..I think I should face facts that this is a strong Nina..and this winter will probably suck..listen it's gonna snow this winter..but I think to save myself stress and wait maybe 48 hours away..and maybe take a rest from this board..I need some sleep! A total waste of time? You're free to throw in the towel if you wish, but did you at least learn something from watching the runs and reading some good analysis? I know I did. While I of course would love a crushing blow, you still have to try an take away some positives if it doesn't pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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