RowanBrandon Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Thanks for sucking me back in for a few more runs GFS, even though I know you are just setting me up for heartbreak in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 made things very interesting, if we tighten up the trough a bit should get close enough to give NYC plowable snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well, we're still 84 hours out. We all know how much can change in the "NAM range". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At least we get some snow this run. just when I thought I was out..they keep pulling me in... Michael Coleone Godfather 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At least we get some snow this run. Look, is there any chance, that this thing comes back by 100-150 miles and produces something like the EURO was depicting yesterday?? I mean, if that were to happen, the KING would be back, no? haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If that whole setup was like 100 - 200 miles west, that would have been golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Look, is there any chance, that this thing comes back by 100-150 miles and produces something like the EURO was depicting yesterday?? I mean, if that were to happen, the KING would be back, no? haha There is certainly the chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not necessarily. Biggest I have measured here was 22.3" in January 1996. The only 24" storm I have measured was the blizzard of 1978, but that was in Northeast Nassau. I kinda wish I'd been here for that one...but I didn't exactly miss out where I was. I had only 17" for the December 2009 storm. I missed the best stuff by less than 10 miles . I guess you missed out on our 28 inches in PD2 also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Can we mention a west trend now? I think we panicked a little early maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I wonder what happened to Ekster? He usually has some great commentary on these threats. He is up at GYX now. Got a better job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The low tracks just a Tick east of the Benchmark...Thats enough to keep me interested for a few more sets of model runs (maybe the QPF shield is underdone?)...Remember, a 50 mile shift west and NYC gets a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm not throwing in the towel yet since I keep seeing varying solutions. Hey, you really never know what could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Totals. Not like it matters at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If that whole setup was like 100 - 200 miles west, that would have been golden Wasn't it the case with one of last years storms (forgot which one) where the 18z's set the trend for the better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Very strong closed low... Massive blizzard cape cod Does it look like March 1960 to you? Cant wait for the ensembles lol, maybe this has room to come back a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Totals. Not like it matters at this point. H5 is much better than that shows, the entire H5 setup was more amplified and phased better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Totals. Not like it matters at this point. That keeps me interested- that's a solid 2-5" for Western Suffolk... I'm game!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm not sure what storm it looks like. I haven't been looking at any analogs or anything like that. I'll have to look at the KU book later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Oh come on guys - stop looking at 18z's and 6z's -- we all know that they're trash. The general consensus is that they aren't trash anymore. A certain met mentioned earlier in this thread says he treats them a little like an ensemble member of the previous 0z or 12z run. Basically there are some updates to the starting conditions from the previous runs which theoretically should yield a more accurate solution. There is probably more to it than that (more aircraft obs,, etc ingested) but the point is it isn't garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The complete phase cycle, or lack of is not quite yet inside the 48h time frame, not sure if all North stream data is in yet so tonight will be telling to say the least. That being said, if tonights is similar or better, just a few dozen miles of a jog west with the precip field, and were in for a 3 to 5 event. I think most of LI is already there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not too bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Ehh. The number of GFS and Euro ensembles suggesting a strong and further west low suggest that it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility it could lurch back to the west enough to at least sideswipe a lot of us. Again, we don't need it to be as perfect a setup as DC does. I'll take a few or several inches-hey, it's a lot better than zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The idea that people have wrote this storm off is mind boggling to me. What is it about this storm should make it any different than other storms we have all tracked together where changes still occur within the 3 day time range? Especially with a set up like this, where one small deviation can make drastic changes for the final outcome. That point, and the fact that really all of the model output from all of the 12z models and ensembles were still not in complete agreement should prevent anyone from thinking they for sure know what's going to happen with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Wasn't it the case with one of last years storms (forgot which one) where the 18z's set the trend for the better? it was the NAM for dec 19. at 84h, it never wavered except 1 6z run just 18hrs before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not too bad! Doesn't that RH field scream Virga? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I guess you missed out on our 28 inches in PD2 also 18.8" PDII. However, we had about 6" of solid (icy) snowpack on the ground before that one started...so we had our 2 feet on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm not sure what storm it looks like. I haven't been looking at any analogs or anything like that. I'll have to look at the KU book later I saw Jan 2000 being mentioned. Meanwhile, here is what Don said about lackluster Decembers leading to bad snow seasons overall. I agree. In 9/10 moderate-strong La Niña cases since 1871, NYC saw less than 20" seasonal snowfall when it received less than 2.5" in December. FWIW, at the Newx-forecasts seasonal snowfall contest, my seasonal snowfall estimate for NYC was 13.9". My guess for Boston was 33.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Doesn't that RH field scream Virga? Wow. We all know that lots of weenie suicides will happen because the radar will show it snowing over Central PA when it actually is just cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 18.8" PDII. However, we had about 6" of solid (icy) snowpack on the ground before that one started...so we had our 2 feet on the ground. Yes, there was a snow storm a few days before that, which gets forgotten about. I love those snow gradient maps on your site; 2002-03 has the weirdest snowfall gradient though-- basically there doesnt seem to be one lol. All of Long Island got hammered that season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Doesn't that RH field scream Virga? Wow. Yes... Virga storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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