JTA66 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Day 3 QPF. Seriously ... someone along the I-95 corridor has angered the snow gods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 just saw the euro ensembles. the op is definitely on the far right side of the spaghetti plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 just saw the euro ensembles. the op is definitely on the far right side of the spaghetti plots. Thanks for the update.. if the GFS can come in better, maybe there's slim hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 just saw the euro ensembles. the op is definitely on the far right side of the spaghetti plots. The Euro ensembles have been the most consistent of any model/ensemble mean, but we saw how consistency killed the Euro last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 So...HPC and OKX are still giving the storm a shot...I know I will be here for the 0z runs, who else will be? Also, our shortwave is becoming more neutrally tilted. I'll be here from now until 12z tomorrow at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 In case people didn't see it in the other thread... Because the models have shifted east, I am forced to move my axis of heaviest snow about 100-150 miles further east. This storm has been a major dissapointment. That is one colorful picture of a duck. Nice work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I wonder what happened to Ekster? He usually has some great commentary on these threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The 18z GFS may be enough to sucker us back in. S/w energy is much slower than 12z and the energy coming down the backside of the trough is also stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The 18z GFS may be enough to sucker us back in. S/w energy is much slower than 12z and the energy coming down the backside of the trough is also stronger. IMO a lot now hangs in how broad the trough becomes and how fast we can get it to go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 One thing I don't like in the 18z GFS is that the ridge out west is farther east, which may prevent a snowstorm this run. Both the northern and southern streams look better, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The 18z GFS may be enough to sucker us back in. S/w energy is much slower than 12z and the energy coming down the backside of the trough is also stronger. Watch the feature running out ahead of the diving northern stream over around DC at 48. That feature is broadening the trough out and preventing it from pivoting around to a better configuration. That feature has to weaken or get out of the way sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hmmmm. You know. This 18z run is looking a bit interesting here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I've still have yet to have measured a true 24" event in all my life in western suffolk.. You should of in Jan. 1996. Not necessarily. Biggest I have measured here was 22.3" in January 1996. The only 24" storm I have measured was the blizzard of 1978, but that was in Northeast Nassau. I kinda wish I'd been here for that one...but I didn't exactly miss out where I was. I had only 17" for the December 2009 storm. I missed the best stuff by less than 10 miles . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I wonder what happened to Ekster? He usually has some great commentary on these threats. He was amazing.. Last I remember, he was up at BOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 One thing I don't like in the 18z GFS is that the ridge out west is farther east, which may prevent a snowstorm this run. Both the northern and southern streams look better, though. If you actually compare it to 6z it's pretty much the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hmmmm. You know. This 18z run is looking a bit interesting here Yeah, 500mb closing off, trying to go negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It does look better than 12z, I will say that. Hopefully it's enough for most of us to get back in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Its at 78 hours. It's offshore but really not by much and it's a powerhouse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Wow at hour 81. Big hit I think coming to new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Its at 78 hours. It's offshore but really not by much and it's a powerhouse How far back does precip. extend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It seems like it's trying to hook back in at 78... Edit: Should give the big cities light snow, but won't be enough for the heavy snow, except in BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Very strong closed low... Massive blizzard cape cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I don't think we'll have this pinned down for a couple more model cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Eastern long island does pretty well but still under a tenth I think in NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Oh come on guys - stop looking at 18z's and 6z's -- we all know that they're trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I don't think we'll have this pinned down for a couple more model cycles. Any one who that we would 3 days from the storm aren't thinking right if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Just saw it - wow, not perfect, but even SE PA gets some action. Good step forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Man, if only this wasn't kicked out right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At least we get some snow this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Eastern long island does pretty well but still under a tenth I think in NYC metro Looks like maybe 2-3" in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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