Dsnowx53 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The only good thing that seemed to come from this are the beautiful ECMWF maps... for now I will just wish that these maps will come true... That image is old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 That image is old. I know. I just wish that the 4 day old ECMWF maps would come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Trying to be an optimist can this system come back west? What needs to happen for this system to shift back west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 By the way, I figured I would say this much before I take a few days off for the holidays. It's been great tracking the past few potential systems with all of you guys. This thread gets a bit of a bad rep but I think it has improved dramatically over the past year or so; and it has been a real treat watching all of the model guidance and analyzing the synoptic evolution of this pattern with everybody in these threads and subforum. You guys should be real proud of yourselves as most of you have come a long way. Also a shout out to all of the moderators who have helped keep everything clean and flowing well in the active periods. Wishing everybody here a blessed holiday with plenty of snow in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 By the way, I figured I would say this much before I take a few days off for the holidays. It's been great tracking the past few potential systems with all of you guys. This thread gets a bit of a bad rep but I think it has improved dramatically over the past year or so; and it has been a real treat watching all of the model guidance and analyzing the synoptic evolution of this pattern with everybody in these threads and subforum. You guys should be real proud of yourselves as most of you have come a long way. Also a shout out to all of the moderators who have helped keep everything clean and flowing well in the active periods. Wishing everybody here a blessed holiday with plenty of snow in the future. Thanks for all your great analysis earthlight. Wishing a wonderful holiday season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Trying to be an optimist can this system come back west? What needs to happen for this system to shift back west? It would need a HUGE shift west. Given that the models are in their accurate range, that just does not seem likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 18z nam will have a better solution than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 18z nam will have a better solution than 12z. For who....Moby Dick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I may be wrong but the 18z nam looks a lot better than the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 By the way, I figured I would say this much before I take a few days off for the holidays. It's been great tracking the past few potential systems with all of you guys. This thread gets a bit of a bad rep but I think it has improved dramatically over the past year or so; and it has been a real treat watching all of the model guidance and analyzing the synoptic evolution of this pattern with everybody in these threads and subforum. You guys should be real proud of yourselves as most of you have come a long way. Also a shout out to all of the moderators who have helped keep everything clean and flowing well in the active periods. Wishing everybody here a blessed holiday with plenty of snow in the future. Thanks, John! I hope you have a wonderful xmas and new years too! All those late nights of tracking and analysis definitely were not wasted, as tracking is 50% of the fun. I've always thought the actual storm is a letdown even if it does happen (unless its a megastorm of long duration like Jan 96)-- because the end is on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 There is a better chance of a phase on the 18z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 There is a better chance of a phase on the 18z nam. why and how ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 18Z NAM at h5 at 36 hours. h5 has a closed low... this didn't open back up, after it formed a closed area of Low P. which is different than the 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 By the way, I figured I would say this much before I take a few days off for the holidays. It's been great tracking the past few potential systems with all of you guys. This thread gets a bit of a bad rep but I think it has improved dramatically over the past year or so; and it has been a real treat watching all of the model guidance and analyzing the synoptic evolution of this pattern with everybody in these threads and subforum. You guys should be real proud of yourselves as most of you have come a long way. Also a shout out to all of the moderators who have helped keep everything clean and flowing well in the active periods. Wishing everybody here a blessed holiday with plenty of snow in the future. Well said John. Even though it's frustrating if we don't get the result we wanted, but it's certainly been fun nonetheless. I also think we do pretty well here in the NYC thread. Sure, there are some off posts occasionally, but every region has those. We've got a great group of people and posters in here. Merry Christmas to everyone in the tristate area and let's all try to enjoy the holidays with or without snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 at 42hr the south s/w is much further northeast than 12z and the northern stream is further south. also the trough is winging more neutral now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 why and how ? northern and southern streams are much closer to each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 By the way, I figured I would say this much before I take a few days off for the holidays. It's been great tracking the past few potential systems with all of you guys. This thread gets a bit of a bad rep but I think it has improved dramatically over the past year or so; and it has been a real treat watching all of the model guidance and analyzing the synoptic evolution of this pattern with everybody in these threads and subforum. You guys should be real proud of yourselves as most of you have come a long way. Also a shout out to all of the moderators who have helped keep everything clean and flowing well in the active periods. Wishing everybody here a blessed holiday with plenty of snow in the future. Have a great holiday John! It's been fun and definitely a lot of laughs in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 h5 low opens up again. 42 Hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I just drowned my sorrow for the storm that won't be in a big McDonald's chocolate shake. I suggest you all do something similar That's where supper is tonight..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hale to the new King......Oh Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 In this neck of the woods POPs have now been brought down for Sunday / Monday... but they did introduce slight chance for Christmas day and night. Some white scenery on Christmas would be kinda cool... right guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I may be wrong but the 18z nam looks a lot better than the 12z. Nice early call! NAM looks like it is trying to phase the two energies together. Not sure if it will save the storm or not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This is going to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Nice early call! NAM looks like it is trying to phase the two energies together. Not sure if it will save the storm or not... unfortunately, it's not gonna go our way.. this too, is already headed out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I know. I just wish that the 4 day old ECMWF maps would come true. Its been deleted...please don't post old maps unless you are providing analysis...would be very confusing to someone at work just logging on and bactracking through the thread. Feel free to post it in one of the OT disappointment threads in the Off Topic forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 18Z NAM is OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 In this neck of the woods POPs have now been brought down for Sunday / Monday... but they did introduce slight chance for Christmas day and night. Some white scenery on Christmas would be kinda cool... right guys? Right,, but I think the more closer you are to the OV and SW, the better you are off with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This is done for folks. If 0Z Models support 12Z, then I'm throwing in the towel for this storm. Mt. Holly gave up on the storm. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH THE THREAT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY CONTINUES TO DWINDLE...AS THE LAST HOLDOUT FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM HAS JOINED THE MODEL CONSENSUS THIS AFTERNOON. THE 1200 UTC ECMWF RUN HAS JOINED THE MODEL CONSENSUS THIS AFTERNOON IN ALLOWING THE MID LEVEL PHASING TO OCCUR TOO LATE FOR MUCH OF AN IMPACT WITH REGARD TO SNOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT...A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR AT LEAST A PART OF THE AREA. THIS COULD BE DUE TO A BRUSH WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM (LESS LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THIS IS HINTED AT BY THE 1200 UTC GFS/ECMWF) OR THE PASSAGE OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM (A BIT MORE LIKELY). http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I was just thinking about this past decade and its truly amazing how we've been so spoiled. 10 years and 10 12"+ events. December 2000, February 2003, December 2003, January 2005, February 2006, March 2009, December 2009, February 2010 6th, February 2010 10th, February 2010 25th-26th. What's the normal around here - a 12" storm every 4 years or so? We've seen one on average every single year since 2000, at least in my area. Who knows, if this threat doesn't produce, we may have better luck getting snow w/ moderating temps. At least then we'll probably see the gradient move north w/ overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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