Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Potential - Part 4


am19psu

Recommended Posts

I'll take a look at this later this evening, if UncleW doesn't chime in first.

Thanks, Ray! And I meant where would 50% of normal snowfall for December lead to for the season in non el nino years.

Looks like the analyses that Ryan put out for BDL and Will put out for ORH showed that even 70% of normal snowfall in December lead to significantly less than average snowfall for the season (around 50%). The sample size was fairly large too-- 40 seasons or so.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I alluded to this possible non event early this morning and it was dismissed, That post was around 2 am, I knew we where in trouble when the GEM pulled off the storm, I guess some will also look at the GFS differently now as well the GFS never had a storm in the first place for the NYC Metro area, The trend is not our friend if you love snow. another disappointment in the making.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

<br />I was just thinking Sunday into Monday everyone was worried that Christmas travel would be effected than Tues into Wed it looked like More of a Sun into Mon Event and now maybe nothing.This is a roller coaster ride that may still not be over yet however...<br />
<br /><br /><br /> The only thing im concerned about on my drive back from jersey to Scranton are the drunks
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Honestly if there wasn't such a build-up the past few days with the Euro runs, most would probably think we're not in a bad position right now at 78-84 hours out. The storm is progged just to our SE and we've got 3 more days of model variations to go wrt deciphering the phase timing and evolution.

Perhaps its the snow weenie in me, but I feel like there is a lot if not some truth to this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

TWC is obsolete now its ridiculous. I remember as a kid when that's all we had outside the nightly local newscasts.

A few inches would still be nice, More than a dusting would be nice. I am trying to be a bit positive, TWC keeps talking about the Euro and GFS not agreeing.. Unless TWC is an hour behind the times and can't get their act together. They keep saying, we will see,

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Of course it did. In fact it consistently put out major snows for NYC from last friday at least through Monday before losing the storm.

I alluded to this possible non event early this morning and it was dismissed, That post was around 2 am, I knew we where in trouble when the GEM pulled off the storm, I guess some will also look at the GFS differently now as well the GFS never had a storm in the first place for the NYC Metro area, The trend is not our friend if you love snow. another disappointment in the making.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's correct. Decembers with 3" or greater in NYC generally feature near or above normal snowfall winters, and vice versa. So if we get nothing out of this event, well, let's put it this way, that aint too good.

lol.

this has the feeling of one of those years where february 1 dawns with a season total of under 2" in central park.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very True, However I don't get NJ channels or phila so we are always in with NYC - Fios needs to pick up some nj channels.. I am tired of watching NYC forcasts

You can get an inexpensive antenna and pick them up in HD... though I hear 6abc is very difficult to pick up on antenna since the DTV transition.

When I lived in the Trenton area I found the NYC station forecasts to be very unhelpful for anything outside of NYC. We always watched the Philly stations for forecast info. They are A LOT better these days than when I was growing up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very True, However I don't get NJ channels or phila so we are always in with NYC - Fios needs to pick up some nj channels.. I am tired of watching NYC forcasts

NJ only has one major affiliate, WMGM (NBC 40), which only covers AC and the small surrounding area- you either have to watch NYC or Philly

Link to comment
Share on other sites

honestly, i think the best route may be to route for the overunning to get stronger on each run. That would bring some lgt snow to the area on christmas

I'm with you on this one. The coastal chance is kaput so give me some over-running. The sad thing is is that is what the models were originally advertising with this threat. Over-running is a lot simpler of a scenario in which we can squeeze out a light to maybe moderate event. Once everything kicked over to this phase situation I knew we were in trouble.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm with you on this one. The coastal chance is kaput so give me some over-running. The sad thing is is that is what the models were originally advertising with this threat. Over-running is a lot simpler of a scenario in which we can squeeze out a light to maybe moderate event. Once everything kicked over to this phase situation I knew we were in trouble.

unfortunately, this type of wind profile is not very condcive of an overrunning situation. You'd need to see better veering of winds with height and much stronger winds at that.

barb.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Who would have known that last weeks 10-12 hour light snow surprise of 2-3" of snow on Long Island would have been the only snow we would have seen over the next week or so.. (remember, the stretch of time that has TONSSSS OF POTENTIAL..."

It's funny b/c right about now, a nice event like that (1-3"), christmas eve into christmas would be deemed amazing at this point...

P.S. Remember 5-6 days ago how we were talking about a "christmas eve inot christmas" day event, which then kept getting pushed further out, well it's now "out of commission"

Oh well

jeff

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...