A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'll take a look at this later this evening, if UncleW doesn't chime in first. Thanks, Ray! And I meant where would 50% of normal snowfall for December lead to for the season in non el nino years. Looks like the analyses that Ryan put out for BDL and Will put out for ORH showed that even 70% of normal snowfall in December lead to significantly less than average snowfall for the season (around 50%). The sample size was fairly large too-- 40 seasons or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I alluded to this possible non event early this morning and it was dismissed, That post was around 2 am, I knew we where in trouble when the GEM pulled off the storm, I guess some will also look at the GFS differently now as well the GFS never had a storm in the first place for the NYC Metro area, The trend is not our friend if you love snow. another disappointment in the making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 <br />I was just thinking Sunday into Monday everyone was worried that Christmas travel would be effected than Tues into Wed it looked like More of a Sun into Mon Event and now maybe nothing.This is a roller coaster ride that may still not be over yet however...<br /><br /><br /><br /> The only thing im concerned about on my drive back from jersey to Scranton are the drunks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 la ninas sometimes are cold but sometimes with little snow, maybe that's where we will end up after all is said and done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Honestly if there wasn't such a build-up the past few days with the Euro runs, most would probably think we're not in a bad position right now at 78-84 hours out. The storm is progged just to our SE and we've got 3 more days of model variations to go wrt deciphering the phase timing and evolution. Perhaps its the snow weenie in me, but I feel like there is a lot if not some truth to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 TWC is obsolete now its ridiculous. I remember as a kid when that's all we had outside the nightly local newscasts. A few inches would still be nice, More than a dusting would be nice. I am trying to be a bit positive, TWC keeps talking about the Euro and GFS not agreeing.. Unless TWC is an hour behind the times and can't get their act together. They keep saying, we will see, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Of course it did. In fact it consistently put out major snows for NYC from last friday at least through Monday before losing the storm. I alluded to this possible non event early this morning and it was dismissed, That post was around 2 am, I knew we where in trouble when the GEM pulled off the storm, I guess some will also look at the GFS differently now as well the GFS never had a storm in the first place for the NYC Metro area, The trend is not our friend if you love snow. another disappointment in the making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishIwas Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 TWC is obsolete now its ridiculous. I remember as a kid when that's all we had outside the nightly local newscasts. Very True, However I don't get NJ channels or phila so we are always in with NYC - Fios needs to pick up some nj channels.. I am tired of watching NYC forcasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well I say bring on the temperature moderation now. This cold weather is useless without snow. Bring me at least some 40's so my kids can get outside for a while on the weekends. I'm welcoming torch now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well I say bring on the temperature moderation now. This cold weather is useless without snow. Bring me at least some 40's so my kids can get outside for a while on the weekends. I'm welcoming torch now. Let's go for recordbreaking warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well I say bring on the temperature moderation now. This cold weather is useless without snow. Bring me at least some 40's so my kids can get outside for a while on the weekends. I'm welcoming torch now. I'd take a 2 week torch now...this strech has been brutal--cold and dry-wasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 anyobdy got the 12z EC ensembles yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 anyobdy got the 12z EC ensembles yet? They do not come out until 3 or 3:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 That's correct. Decembers with 3" or greater in NYC generally feature near or above normal snowfall winters, and vice versa. So if we get nothing out of this event, well, let's put it this way, that aint too good. lol. this has the feeling of one of those years where february 1 dawns with a season total of under 2" in central park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Man, I really thought the immediate coast would see enough to atleast shovel out of this...I hope it somehow finds a way to happen. I've given up hope here, well inland....I atleast have videos and pictures from last year to browse through from last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well, maybe we'll get a few inches out of this. That'd be nice at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I hate it when the models tease you with snow then take it away at the last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Very True, However I don't get NJ channels or phila so we are always in with NYC - Fios needs to pick up some nj channels.. I am tired of watching NYC forcasts You can get an inexpensive antenna and pick them up in HD... though I hear 6abc is very difficult to pick up on antenna since the DTV transition. When I lived in the Trenton area I found the NYC station forecasts to be very unhelpful for anything outside of NYC. We always watched the Philly stations for forecast info. They are A LOT better these days than when I was growing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 honestly, i think the best route may be to route for the overunning to get stronger on each run. That would bring some lgt snow to the area on christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Very True, However I don't get NJ channels or phila so we are always in with NYC - Fios needs to pick up some nj channels.. I am tired of watching NYC forcasts NJ only has one major affiliate, WMGM (NBC 40), which only covers AC and the small surrounding area- you either have to watch NYC or Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 In case people didn't see it in the other thread... Because the models have shifted east, I am forced to move my axis of heaviest snow about 100-150 miles further east. This storm has been a major dissapointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 In case people didn't see it in the other thread... Because the models have shifted east, I am forced to move my axis of heaviest snow about 100-150 miles further east. This storm has been a major dissapointment. simply epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 In case people didn't see it in the other thread... Because the models have shifted east, I am forced to move my axis of heaviest snow about 100-150 miles further east. This storm has been a major dissapointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 honestly, i think the best route may be to route for the overunning to get stronger on each run. That would bring some lgt snow to the area on christmas I'm with you on this one. The coastal chance is kaput so give me some over-running. The sad thing is is that is what the models were originally advertising with this threat. Over-running is a lot simpler of a scenario in which we can squeeze out a light to maybe moderate event. Once everything kicked over to this phase situation I knew we were in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 :lol: ROFL... oh man... that had to be the greatest snowfall map of all time. I love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I do not usually kid around with my personal independent snow forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This is the first thing that has made me laugh all day. Glorious. In case people didn't see it in the other thread... Because the models have shifted east, I am forced to move my axis of heaviest snow about 100-150 miles further east. This storm has been a major dissapointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm with you on this one. The coastal chance is kaput so give me some over-running. The sad thing is is that is what the models were originally advertising with this threat. Over-running is a lot simpler of a scenario in which we can squeeze out a light to maybe moderate event. Once everything kicked over to this phase situation I knew we were in trouble. unfortunately, this type of wind profile is not very condcive of an overrunning situation. You'd need to see better veering of winds with height and much stronger winds at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Who would have known that last weeks 10-12 hour light snow surprise of 2-3" of snow on Long Island would have been the only snow we would have seen over the next week or so.. (remember, the stretch of time that has TONSSSS OF POTENTIAL..." It's funny b/c right about now, a nice event like that (1-3"), christmas eve into christmas would be deemed amazing at this point... P.S. Remember 5-6 days ago how we were talking about a "christmas eve inot christmas" day event, which then kept getting pushed further out, well it's now "out of commission" Oh well jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 In case people didn't see it in the other thread... Because the models have shifted east, I am forced to move my axis of heaviest snow about 100-150 miles further east. This storm has been a major dissapointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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