LVblizzard Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 3:36 AM, ARyan said: Northern shortwave is stronger at hr12. Not good, but 2 things are positive about this run so far, the s/w is a little slower and there's more ridging out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 3:37 AM, LVblizzard said: Not good, but 2 things are positive about this run so far, the s/w is a little slower and there's more ridging out west. I really can't tell. These details are slight, and will probably not impact the eventual outcome of the GFS which is OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 IS it just me or does the ridging look farther west on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 3:37 AM, LVblizzard said: Not good, but 2 things are positive about this run so far, the s/w is a little slower and there's more ridging out west. Yes. Even more so compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 it seem like the north stream is digging in more and sharper...also a bit higher hgts along the east coast at hr 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Southern s/w is still slower through hr21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 3:39 AM, goldstar said: IS it just me or does the ridging look farther west on this run? It looks slightly east to me. Also, s/w is slower than 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 3:42 AM, ARyan said: Southern s/w is still slower through hr21. i dont think the speed is the issue anymore with the s/w. The problem is it just gets sheared out as it progresses east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Any bit of higher heights along the east coast is important. That's what allows the storm to amplify and move up the coast. However I still don't think this run will do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 sorry still looks west, even your line suggests it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 3:44 AM, Snowlover123 said: It looks slightly east to me. for one thing..it does look like the ridge axis has more of a neutral tilt this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow. At 42 hours the GFS is really, really trying. This is going to be exceptionally close. At the very least...the ups and downs/drama the first few weeks of winter have been awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 More digging this run, especially with the northern stream. 546dm contour is in NE Iowa at 24 hours on 0z GFS compared to central Wisconsin at 30 hours on 18z GFS. Still might not be enough but this threat is not over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 3:46 AM, goldstar said: sorry still looks west, even your line suggests it Use Montana and Arizona as reference points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 3:44 AM, tombo82685 said: i dont think the speed is the issue anymore with the s/w. The problem is it just gets sheared out as it progresses east. The situation looks like it's improved a little bit but I think this one is over anyway. Too little too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 3:47 AM, earthlight said: Wow. At 42 hours the GFS is really, really trying. This is going to be exceptionally close. At the very least...the ups and downs/drama the first few weeks of winter have been awesome. Do you see that vorticity over Kansas? wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 45 hrs the northern stream has dug as far southwest as Oklahoma. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 3:48 AM, Riptide said: Do you see that vorticity over Kansas? wow Yeah, its a significant feature. How irritating it will be if the models trend just enough west to scrape the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 wow at hr 48 this trough is trying so hard to go negative..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 3:48 AM, earthlight said: 45 hrs the northern stream has dug as far southwest as Oklahoma. Wow. Heights are definitely lower on the East Coast, though, which may be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 A neutral trough? At this time on the 18Z, it was still positively tilted. 0Z at 36 hours. Neutral Trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 3:49 AM, earthlight said: Yeah, its a significant feature. How irritating it will be if the models trend just enough west to scrape the coast. Possible, it happened on 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 At 48, the orientation and sharpness of the trough looks much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Closed off H5 over Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Looks like it will dig all the way to the gulf and phase with the southern stream. Will be interesting to see where it ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 That piece of northern stream energy squashing all the heights on the east coast needs to get the hell out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 3:52 AM, LVblizzard said: That piece of northern stream energy squashing all the heights on the east coast needs to get the hell out of the way. Oh. I see what you're talking about now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 3:50 AM, nzucker said: Heights are definitely lower on the East Coast, though, which may be a problem. Funny as I thought they looked slightly higher but that is with my untrained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On 12/24/2010 at 3:48 AM, ARyan said: The situation looks like it's improved a little bit but I think this one is over anyway. Too little too late. How about we wait until the run is over to say it's over, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Precip shield looks very slightly west of 18z at 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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