am19psu Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Let's try to make higher quality posts here than the last 3 pages of the Part 3 thread. 12z GFS starts in 15ish minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What was the reasoning behind using the 6z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 What was the reasoning behind using the 6z GFS? It's a middle of the road solution based on the ensemble guidance. It's the "most likely" scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's a middle of the road solution based on the ensemble guidance. It's the "most likely" scenario. I see, now has the upper air maps matched the surface? It does seem that the ensembles were further west, so something of western solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Can someone quickly summerize the 12z NAM.. The previous thread was a mess, as indicated above.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 6z GFS spits out .03" qpf for PHL and .25" for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Can someone quickly summerize the 12z NAM.. The previous thread was a mess, as indicated above.. From the one panel i saw it was weak storm, with no surface reflection about a few hundred miles over the atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Everyone is bitching about the NAM because its solution looks earily similar to last weeks swing and a miss...but you really can't compare one or two runs last week showing a hit with this system. The GFS had a hit for a few runs and then jumped way out south east. Nobody seems to remember the bowling ball scenario it advertised for days before trending towards a miller A type scenario. The EC has been fairly consistent for many runs now and if a total miss verified it would be a much bigger fail. With that being said...we have known all along that the euro has been on the western strong side of things for days and rarely do the outliers verify. I trully think however considering the GFS ensembles are continuing to shift west that a track west of its 06z op run is a good way to go. I also think considering the strength of the system and proximity to the coast as shown on the 00z EC that QPF from PHI northward was underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Can someone quickly summerize the 12z NAM.. The previous thread was a mess, as indicated above.. Nam looked good in the beginning but fell apart in the middle.. The pros have said the later half of the nam run is junk anyway.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 just an fyi on the OKX totals. As you can see, the heavy snowfall is not too far away from NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 just an fyi on the OKX totals. As you can see, the heavy snowfall is not too far away from NYC metro. The gradient on this storm is going to cause much consternation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The gradient on this storm is going to cause much consternation Did you mean constipation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 folks.. back to the task at hand now.. the mod is deleting the responses to that as you can tell. the 12Z has started. Time for some analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The gradient on this storm is going to cause much consternation Wouldn't surprise me if Reading PA sees nothing and Trenton's got 6"+ or Trenton gets nothing and Toms River gets 6"+ -- Millennium storm II? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The gradient on this storm is going to cause much consternation As with all storms of this magnitude, heavy snow to nearly no snow within 60 miles. My WAG would be a final track that will come in just inside of the benchmark. OP models aside, that is where all the ensemble noise is pointing toward. Happy Holidays Everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 RGEM seems to foolow the NAM thru 48 to a tee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Wouldn't surprise me if Reading PA sees nothing and Trenton's got 6"+ or Trenton gets nothing and Toms River gets 6"+ -- Millennium storm II? Me neither. Millennium storm keeps on coming up as number 1 on the CIPs hit list. Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 GFS out to 18 and things look the same as 06Z thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Could end up that way. Was thinking it reminded me of the Feb '96 storm (the 1st of 2 that month) where the big cities got a 6-10" storm but the coast got hammered, particuarly AC and down the delmarva. Many coastal locales did much better than the Jan blizzard where they changed to rain. Out at State college we got nada. Wouldn't surprise me if Reading PA sees nothing and Trenton's got 6"+ or Trenton gets nothing and Toms River gets 6"+ -- Millennium storm II? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 at 27, the position of the southern vort is further north and east and a bit stronger.. it's closed off a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 at 33 hours, things have synched back up again with 06Z and look very similar still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 As with all storms of this magnitude, heavy snow to nearly no snow within 60 miles. My WAG would be a final track that will come in just inside of the benchmark. OP models aside, that is where all the ensemble noise is pointing toward. Happy Holidays Everyone! Me neither. Millennium storm keeps on coming up as number 1 on the CIPs hit list. Merry Christmas! If you could shift that track about another 50 miles west...thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 As with all storms of this magnitude, heavy snow to nearly no snow within 60 miles. My WAG would be a final track that will come in just inside of the benchmark. OP models aside, that is where all the ensemble noise is pointing toward. Happy Holidays Everyone! I know this is weenie-ish...but how often do we get storms of this magnitude that track just inside the benchmark that don't manage to get sig precip back to i-95 and slightly west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 at 45, the southern stream is about 50 miles faster, but the northern stream has weaker energy than the last run, at this particular time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The storm looks like it is matching up to prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 at 45, the southern stream is about 50 miles faster, but the northern stream has weaker energy than the last run, at this particular time. I think the interaction between the two streams is slightly earlier when compared to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I bet it happens more often than you think especially in Miller B type of scenarios. This could be that case where the low tracks OTS are a fairly southerly point and then gets captured and moves dead N over the BM which would miss DC-PHL and only really graze NYC. I know this is weenie-ish...but how often do we get storms of this magnitude that track just inside the benchmark that don't manage to get sig precip back to i-95 and slightly west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 we're out to 54 now and the only thing not in synch at this juncture with 06Z is that the southern wave is a bit faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 looks pretty similiar to me through hr 54 compred to the 06z......nothing like the nam....so get that out of ur head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Gotta get this to swing negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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