The Rule of "11's" in New York City Summers - Bake-offs

[JBG]

1 hour ago, JBG said:

1977 had a very hot period but I doubt that overall it was anywhere near a record. June and August were not hot.

Even 1977's hottest day, 104°, was followed by an 87° day, the only cooldown that I know of (may one in 1995) that wen from 100+ to under 90 in a day. 1995, however, was a proper roaster of a summer.

[LibertyBell]

On 8/3/2021 at 6:14 PM, JBG said:

1977 had a very hot period but I doubt that overall it was anywhere near a record. June and August were not hot.

weird that it had the hottest week in NYC history and then all of a sudden the heat went away?

[LibertyBell]

On 8/3/2021 at 7:22 PM, JBG said:

Even 1977's hottest day, 104°, was followed by an 87° day, the only cooldown that I know of (may one in 1995) that wen from 100+ to under 90 in a day. 1995, however, was a proper roaster of a summer.

But weren't there three 100+ days out of 4 in 1977? Thats amazing.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 8/3/2021 at 7:22 PM, JBG said:

Even 1977's hottest day, 104°, was followed by an 87° day, the only cooldown that I know of (may one in 1995) that wen from 100+ to under 90 in a day. 1995, however, was a proper roaster of a summer.

2010 was much hotter than 1995, didn't even get to 100 at JFK in 1995.

 

[JBG]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

weird that it had the hottest week in NYC history and then all of a sudden the heat went away?

 

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But weren't there three 100+ days out of 4 in 1977? Thats amazing.

 

1977 was one of those rare El Niño summers with big heat. 2002 is the only other one I can think of.  El Niño is usually a cool signal for summers. Think 1969 (one four-day heat wave, a fair number of individual hot days but lots of cool weather and rain), 1972 (June and early-mid August very cool though July and September each had hot weeks), 1979 (one three-day heat wave in May), 1982 (one very hot week in July, otherwise cool), 1992 (historically cool, three-day waves in May and July, with some cooling help from Pinatubo), 2003, 2004, and 2009 (June and July historically cool, three-day heat waves in April and August). 1977 was in many ways a lot like 1969 and 1982, just with a bigger temperature spike. That is why we remember 1977 as a hot summer even though it really wasn't.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, JBG said:

 

1977 was one of those rare El Niño summers with big heat. 2002 is the only other one I can think of.  El Niño is usually a cool signal for summers. Think 1969 (one four-day heat wave, a fair number of individual hot days but lots of cool weather and rain), 1972 (June and early-mid August very cool though July and September each had hot weeks), 1979 (one three-day heat wave in May), 1982 (one very hot week in July, otherwise cool), 1992 (historically cool, three-day waves in May and July, with some cooling help from Pinatubo), 2003, 2004, and 2009 (June and July historically cool, three-day heat waves in April and August). 1977 was in many ways a lot like 1969 and 1982, just with a bigger temperature spike. That is why we remember 1977 as a hot summer even though it really wasn't.

Right and also that horrendous power outage in 1977, which was timed right around that big heatwave.

2002 was wall to wall hot, beginning in April and lasting through September.  Droughty too, I remember yellow grass here.

Those were the el nino exceptions.  I think 1994 was too, but early on.  It started out as hot as 1993 was but then it cooled off later on, except Philly had a historically hot summer like the previous year.

I believe 1993 was the hottest summer out of the 90s, three straight days above 100 and a 10 day super heatwave.

 

[JBG]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

2010 was much hotter than 1995, didn't even get to 100 at JFK in 1995.

 

1995 had a few hot days in advance of a back-door cold front in July, and a substantially above-normal August and early September.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, JBG said:

1995 had a few hot days in advance of a back-door cold front in July, and a substantially above-normal August and early September.

Yes we had the big wild fires and drought in August.  I was highly disappointed we did not have the extreme hot temperatures Chicago had, but I guess that was 1993 for us in that decade.

 

[JBG]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Right and also that horrendous power outage in 1977, which was timed right around that big heatwave.

2002 was wall to wall hot, beginning in April and lasting through September.  Droughty too, I remember yellow grass here.

Those were the el nino exceptions.  I think 1994 was too, but early on.  It started out as hot as 1993 was but then it cooled off later on, except Philly had a historically hot summer like the previous year.

I believe 1993 was the hottest summer out of the 90s, three straight days above 100 and a 10 day super heatwave.

 

2002 did not, from what I remember, have a hot September. I remember August being hot, until a rainy and cool last week. I agree with you about April, late June, July and most of August. 1994 was quite hot through the end of July; as if the weather G-ds had access to a calendar. The cooldown actually signaled the 1994-5 El Niño, and 1996's cool summer presaged the super El Niño of 1997-8. Second La Niña summers are also frequently hot in May or early June, cool thereafter. Examples of this are 1974, 1984, 1989 (though with one July and one September heat wave), 1990, 2000 (brrrr), and 2008 (almost a match with 1925 and 1984 for the big June heat wave). 2011 kept the heat going a while longer than most second-summer La Niñas. 

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, JBG said:

2002 did not, from what I remember, have a hot September. I remember August being hot, until a rainy and cool last week. I agree with you about April, late June, July and most of August. 1994 was quite hot through the end of July; as if the weather G-ds had access to a calendar. The cooldown actually signaled the 1994-5 El Niño, and 1996's cool summer presaged the super El Niño of 1997-8. Second La Niña summers are also frequently hot in May or early June, cool thereafter. Examples of this are 1974, 1984, 1989 (though with one July and one September heat wave), 1990, 2000 (brrrr), and 2008 (almost a match with 1925 and 1984 for the big June heat wave). 2011 kept the heat going a while longer than most second-summer La Niñas. 

What made years like 1980, 1991 and 1993 so hot? 1983 which was the hottest here until 2010 was I understand because of a significant la nina just like 2010 was?

1980s heat had some amazing longevity.

[JBG]

43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What made years like 1980, 1991 and 1993 so hot? 1983 which was the hottest here until 2010 was I understand because of a significant la nina just like 2010 was?

1980s heat had some amazing longevity.

From what I remember Joseph D'Aleo has said, 1980 and 1991 were "failed El Niños." 1993 was a crumbling El Niño leading to a "cold-neutral" for 1993-4, which is short of a La Niña. I personally think the trend, i.e. with cooling in Niñ0 is more important than the actual state. For example 1973 and 2010 were rapid plunges from fairly significant El Niños to significant La Niñas, as was one summer we haven't discussed, 1970. 1970 was a drop, not plunge, from a moderate El Niño to a moderate La Niña. During periods when the Pacific is warming, though still at Niña levels the summers are not back-to-back hot. Examples are 1974, 1984 and 2008. Niño 3.4 temperatures were quite "droppy" during 1980, though not to Niña levels.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, JBG said:

From what I remember Joseph D'Aleo has said, 1980 and 1991 were "failed El Niños." 1993 was a crumbling El Niño leading to a "cold-neutral" for 1993-4, which is short of a La Niña. I personally think the trend, i.e. with cooling in Niñ0 is more important than the actual state. For example 1973 and 2010 were rapid plunges from fairly significant El Niños to significant La Niñas, as was one summer we haven't discussed, 1970. 1970 was a drop, not plunge, from a moderate El Niño to a moderate La Niña. During periods when the Pacific is warming, though still at Niña levels the summers are not back-to-back hot. Examples are 1974, 1984 and 2008. Niño 3.4 temperatures were quite "droppy" during 1980, though not to Niña levels.

so 1993 reminds me of 1966.....

[uncle W]

Extreme heat days 95 or higher in NYC.....
16 in 1955*
13 in 1988*
12 in 1953
12 in 1993
12 in 1999*
12 in 2002
10 in 1944*
10 in 1980
9.. in 2005
9.. in 1983
9.. in 1966*
8.. in 1963
8.. in 1991
8.. in 2010*
 

[LibertyBell]

On 8/5/2021 at 8:22 PM, uncle W said:

Extreme heat days 95 or higher in NYC.....
16 in 1955*
13 in 1988*
12 in 1953
12 in 1993
12 in 1999*
12 in 2002
10 in 1944*
10 in 1980
9.. in 2005
9.. in 1983
9.. in 1966*
8.. in 1963
8.. in 1991
8.. in 2010*
 

That sensor went bad for 2010 lol.  I know JFK had 10 95 degree days in 2010.  Do you have the JFK list too?

 

[JBG]

On 8/8/2021 at 2:10 PM, LibertyBell said:

That sensor went bad for 2010 lol.  I know JFK had 10 95 degree days in 2010.  Do you have the JFK list too?

 

From my memory eight sounds about right. We had the 100+ wave in early July, another intensely hot spell in late July and another in late August/early September.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, JBG said:

From my memory eight sounds about right. We had the 100+ wave in early July, another intensely hot spell in late July and another in late August/early September.

the dry heat was a real blessing

 

[JBG]

On 8/16/2021 at 5:32 PM, LibertyBell said:

the dry heat was a real blessing

 

The early July and the August/September heat waves were dry. The late July one, not so much. And this summer's warmth (very little heat) were humid.