Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,597
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    DAinDC
    Newest Member
    DAinDC
    Joined

Summer Banter 2021


doncat
 Share

Recommended Posts

A recurring issue I have raised in the past:

NYC-06092021.jpg

I have recently started tracking this problem and will post the average daily error (30-day average). There is a persistent disconnect between the guidance and the posted current day forecast number. I am not sure what the problem is.

As noted previously, I don't think the NWS forecast is the issue. Today's AFD states:

Ahead of the front a warm and humid airmass remains in place.While temperatures will be near 90 degrees once again with dew points in the upper 60s to around 70, widespread heat indices in the mid 90s are not expected.

I suspect that there is an issue that results in an inaccurate display (used broadly) of the entered numbers e.g., a "90" might be entered but the website result is quite a bit lower.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Unofficially, the temperature fell to 82° at Phoenix's Sky Harbor Airport this morning at 6:04 am MST. Phoenix will likely approach or break its daily record of 115°, which was set in 1987. If the temperature reaches 116° or above, that would be the highest temperature so early in the season. The existing record earliest 116° or above temperature occurred on June 19, 2016 when the temperature topped out at 118°. The temperature again reached 118° on June 19, 2017. One factor that could inhibit the heat would be smoke from the Telegraph wildfire that could dim the sun if it drifts over the Phoenix area.

Elsewhere, Casper could make a run at its earliest 100° reading on record today or tomorrow. That record was set on June 21, 2016 when the temperature reached a high of 100°.

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Unofficially, the temperature fell to 82° at Phoenix's Sky Harbor Airport this morning at 6:04 am MST. Phoenix will likely approach or break its daily record of 115°, which was set in 1987. If the temperature reaches 116° or above, that would be the highest temperature so early in the season. The existing record earliest 116° or above temperature occurred on June 19, 2016 when the temperature topped out at 118°. The temperature again reached 118° on June 19, 2017. One factor that could inhibit the heat would be smoke from the Telegraph wildfire that could dim the sun if it drifts over the Phoenix area.

Elsewhere, Casper could make a run at its earliest 100° reading on record today or tomorrow. That record was set on June 21, 2016 when the temperature reached a high of 100°.

 

Don do you think Phoenix could hit 120 during this torrid stretch?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This morning, the preliminary low temperature at Phoenix was 85°. The temperature should reach 115° or above this afternoon, but there remains a risk that smoke from the Telegraph fire could trim temperatures by 1°-2°.

Meanwhile, the final high temperature at Medicine Hat, AB was 100° yesterday.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This morning, the preliminary low temperature at Phoenix was 85°. The temperature should reach 115° or above this afternoon, but there remains a risk that smoke from the Telegraph fire could trim temperatures by 1°-2°.

Meanwhile, the final high temperature at Medicine Hat, AB was 100° yesterday.

wow how often does Medicine Hat reach 100?  I'm familiar with the region from Calgary to Medicine Hat to Brooks to Red Deer up to Edmonton, can't say I've seen it reach 100 there much.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At 3 pm MDT, Casper had a temperature of 101°. That smashed the daily record of 93°, which was set in 1946 and tied in 1959 and 1987. It is also Casper's earliest 100° temperature on record. The prior earliest such temperature occurred on June 21, 2016. Summer records go back to 1940.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow how often does Medicine Hat reach 100?  I'm familiar with the region from Calgary to Medicine Hat to Brooks to Red Deer up to Edmonton, can't say I've seen it reach 100 there much.

 

It has happened there a number of times.. Yesterday's was the earliest on record, though.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The preliminary low temperature at Phoenix was 90°. That would surpass the daily record of 86°, which was set in 1988. It would also be the second earliest 90° minimum temperature on record. The earliest such reading occurred on June 14, 2018 when the minimum temperature was 90°. All 90° minimum temperatures prior to June 23 have occurred 2000 or later and 5 of the 6 such readings (including today's preliminary figure) occurred 2010 or later.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The preliminary low temperature at Phoenix was 91°. That would break the daily highest minimum temperature record of 88°, which was set in 1986 and tied in 2008. It would also be the earliest 91° minimum temperature on record. The existing record was set on June 22, 2017 when the minimum temperature was 91°.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Phoenix had a preliminary low temperature of 92°. That would easily surpass the existing record high minimum temperature of 88°, which was set in 2008. That would be the earliest 92° minimum temperature on record. The existing record was set on June 25, 2017. It would also be the 3rd consecutive 90° low temperature and the first 3-day stretch entirely in June. The earliest such streak occurred during June 29-July 1, 2013.

Death Valley had a preliminary low temperature of 101°. That would smash the existing mark of 94°, which was set in 1961.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...