Roger Smith Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 In past years I have added a seasonal max challenge to the ongoing temperature forecast contest. This year just to shake things up a bit, I am going to open this separate contest in the hopes of attracting a larger field of entries. The contest asks you to predict the 2021 annual maximum temperature (F) at ten locations. The contest winner will be the person with the smallest total departure from these outcomes. Make your forecast in whole numbers please, any decimal entries will be converted to whole numbers. The ten locations are: DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ BIS _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (up to you to research what has already happened at these locations, BIS hit 106 yesterday). Deadline is end of Sunday 13th (Mon 14th 06z) with late penalties as follows: number of days (by hourly time stamp) squared. 2.5 days late gets a late penalty of 6.25 points ... etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 I'll take the first leap... DCA: 103 NYC: 100 BOS: 101 ORD: 99 BIS: 108 ATL: 99 IAH: 104 DEN: 104 PHX: 117 SEA: 96 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 8, 2021 Author Share Posted June 8, 2021 101 _ 99 _ 100 _ 98 _ 110 _ 101 _ 106 _ 107 _ 119 _ 99 dca nyc bos ord bis atl iah den phx sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 9, 2021 Share Posted June 9, 2021 DCA: 100 NYC: 98 BOS: 98 ORD: 101 BIS: 107 ATL: 101 IAH: 104 DEN: 101 PHX: 121 SEA: 98 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 10, 2021 Share Posted June 10, 2021 DCA: 100 NYC: 100 BOS: 99 ORD: 100 BIS: 106 ATL: 99 IAH: 103 DEN: 103 PHX: 120 SEA: 99 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted June 10, 2021 Share Posted June 10, 2021 DCA 99 NYC 96 BOS 98 ORD 99 BIS 108 ATL 101 IAH 99 DEN 104 PHX 116 SEA 94 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted June 10, 2021 Share Posted June 10, 2021 DCA 100 NYC 98 BOS 98 ORD 98 BIS 109 ATL 99 IAH 98 DEN 106 PHX 119 SEA 95 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted June 10, 2021 Share Posted June 10, 2021 DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ BIS _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 104 101 998 97 106 105 109 97 117 92 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted June 10, 2021 Share Posted June 10, 2021 That seems a tad warm for Boston there @Scotty Lightning lol!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 11, 2021 Author Share Posted June 11, 2021 He does have a flame thrower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ BIS _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 102 96 98 97 106 99 103 102 119 94 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 DCA 101 NYC 96 (102 at LGA) BOS 99 ORD 100 BIS 106 ATL 99 IAH 102 DEN 101 PHX 119 SEA 94 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxallannj Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 DCA 98 NYC 96 BOS 97 ORD 96 BIS 106 ATL 97 IAH 99 DEN 103 PHX 121 SEA 92 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 Table of forecasts __ Seasonal Max 2021 FORECASTER ________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _BIS _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning ______________ 104 _ 101 __ 98 __ 97 _ 106 _ 105 _ 109 ____ 97 _ 117 __ 92 wxdude64 ____________________ 103 _ 100 _ 101 __ 99 _ 108 __ 99 _ 104 ___ 104 _ 117 __ 96 DonSutherland 1 ______________ 102 __ 96 __ 98 __ 97 _ 106 ___99 _ 103 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 94 Roger Smith __________________ 101 __ 99 _ 100 __ 98 _ 110 _ 101 _ 106 ___ 107 _ 119 __ 99 RJay __________________________101 __ 96 __ 99 _ 100 _ 106 ___99 _ 102 ___ 101 _ 119 __ 94 hudsonvalley21 _______________ 100 _ 100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 106 ___99 _ 103 ___ 103 _ 120 __ 99 Tom __________________________ 100 __ 98 __ 98 _ 101 _ 107 _ 101 _ 104 ___ 101 _ 121 __ 98 BKViking ______________________100 __ 98 __ 98 __ 98 _ 109 ___99 __ 98 ___ 106 _ 119 __ 95 so_whats_happening ___________ 99 __ 96 __ 98 __ 99 _ 108 _ 101 __ 99 ___ 104 _ 116 __ 94 wxallannj _______________________98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 96 _ 106 __ 97 __ 99 ___ 103 _ 121 __ 92 ___ consensus (mean) _________ 101 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 107 _ 100 _ 103 ___ 103 _ 119 __ 95 Highest to date __ (updated Jul 31) _____________ 97 __ 98 __100 __ 94 _ 107 __ 95 __ 99 ____102 __118 _ 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 I will be super impressed by Seattle if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 26, 2021 Author Share Posted June 26, 2021 13 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: I will be super impressed by Seattle if that verifies. By the consensus or the max forecast? It is super hot out this way right now, all SEA is going to need to break 100 is a land breeze. Highs in the 105-110 range are going to be widespread in the Pac NW and s BC this weekend and most of the following week. I am at nearly 4,000' elevation but right now it's close to 98F and heading for the 103-105 range. Valleys will be hotter. But SEA can hold on to a weak seabreeze, right now I see it is 88 there with a northerly breeze. Probably tops out at 95 today, maybe higher in coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 26, 2021 Author Share Posted June 26, 2021 Well anyway it's now 101 F at SEA, case closed (ended up 102). (104 Sunday all time SEA record) (105 hourly 3 pm Monday, could be 106 for the max?) 108 where I live, probably also all-time record or close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 29, 2021 Author Share Posted June 29, 2021 On 6/25/2021 at 10:12 PM, so_whats_happening said: I will be super impressed by Seattle if that verifies. Well now 108 has replaced the previous all-time record set the previous day. I am super depressed because I am under the same heat dome with the same temperature here. (Canadian all-time record fell yesterday, now 47.9 C which is 118 F, mind you it's a dry heat, dew points in the 50s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 4 hours ago, Roger Smith said: Well now 108 has replaced the previous all-time record set the previous day. I am super depressed because I am under the same heat dome with the same temperature here. (Canadian all-time record fell yesterday, now 47.9 C which is 118 F, mind you it's a dry heat, dew points in the 50s). Wow overall max temps have been very impressive to say the least! Stay safe I know many dont have ac to deal with stuff like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 30, 2021 Author Share Posted June 30, 2021 The humidity levels are tolerable, so it's just a case of waiting it out. A cold bath helps too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 23, 2021 Author Share Posted August 23, 2021 Contest standings (Aug 25th 2021) __ declared final Sep 26th 2021 __ FORECASTER ________________DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _BIS _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA__ Total dep wxallannj _______________________98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 96 _ 106 __ 97 __ 99 ___ 103 _ 121 __ 92 __ departures __________________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 _____ 1 ___ 3 ___ 16 ____ 30 hudsonvalley21 _______________100 _ 100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 106 ___99 _ 103 ___ 103 _ 120 __ 99 __ departures __________________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 5 ___ 1 ____ 4 ____ 4 _____ 1 ___ 2 ____ 9 ____ 32 BKViking ______________________100 __ 98 __ 98 __ 98 _ 109 ___99 __ 98 ___ 106 _ 119 __ 95 __ departures __________________ 3 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 3 ___ 2 ____ 4 ____ 1 _____ 4 ___ 1 ___ 13 ____ 33 ___ consensus (mean) _________101 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 107 _ 100 _ 103 ___ 103 _ 119 __ 95 __ departures __________________ 4 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 4 ___ 0 ____ 5 ____ 4 _____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 13 ____ 33 DonSutherland 1 ______________102 __ 96 __ 98 __ 97 _ 106 ___99 _ 103 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 94 __ departures __________________ 5 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ____ 4 ____ 4 _____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 14 ____ 35 so_whats_happening __________ 99 __ 96 __ 98 __ 99 _ 108 _ 101 __ 99 ___ 104 _ 116 __ 94 __ departures __________________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 4 ___ 1 ____ 6 ____ 0 _____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 14 ____ 35 RJay __________________________101 __ 96 __ 99 _ 100 _ 106 ___99 _ 102 ___ 101 _ 119 __ 94 __ departures __________________ 4 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 5 ___ 1 ____ 4 ____ 3 _____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 14 ____ 36 Tom __________________________ 100 __ 98 __ 98 _ 101 _ 107 _ 101 __ 104 ___ 101 _ 121 __ 98 __ departures __________________ 3 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 6 ___ 0 ____ 6 ____ 5 _____ 1 ___ 3 ___ 10 ____ 36 wxdude64 ____________________103 _ 100 _ 101 __ 99 _ 108 __ 99 _ 104 ___ 104 _ 117 __ 96 __ departures __________________ 6 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 4 ___ 1 ____ 4 ____ 5 _____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 12 ____ 38 Roger Smith __________________101 __ 99 _ 100 __ 98 _ 110 __ 101 _ 106 ___ 107 _ 119 __ 99 __ departures __________________ 4 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 3 ___ 3 ____ 6 ____ 7 _____ 5 ___ 1 ____ 9 ____ 39 Scotty Lightning ______________104 _ 101 __ 98 __ 97 _ 106 _ 105 _ 109 ____ 97 _ 117 __ 92 __ departures __________________ 7 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 10 ___ 10 _____ 5 ___ 1 ___ 16 ____ 57 Highest to date __ (updated Aug 25) _____________ 97 __ 98 __100 __ 95 _ 107 __ 95 __ 99 ____102 __118 _ 108 _______________________________________________________________________________________ Scores for SEA are no doubt final with the all-time record high set (108F) well above all forecasts. There is probably a slight chance that any other location could edge higher, although PHX and DEN are probably done. This is therefore not the final order of the contest, and the standings are quite close near the top. (Sep 26 ... no hotter days occurred at any locations so the contest is being declared final, see next post) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 26, 2021 Author Share Posted September 26, 2021 This contest is now declared final, congrats to ** wxallannj in first place (total 30 error points) ** hudsonvalley21 in second (total 32 error points) ** BKViking in third (total 33 error points) (Tom only forecaster to have two of the ten locations without error points, most of us had one). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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