2021 seasonal max contest _ final results posted

[Roger Smith]

In past years I have added a seasonal max challenge to the ongoing temperature forecast contest. This year just to shake things up a bit, I am going to open this separate contest in the hopes of attracting a larger field of entries. 

The contest asks you to predict the 2021 annual maximum temperature (F) at ten locations. The contest winner will be the person with the smallest total departure from these outcomes. Make your forecast in whole numbers please, any decimal entries will be converted to whole numbers. 

The ten locations are:

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ BIS _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(up to you to research what has already happened at these locations, BIS hit 106 yesterday). 

Deadline is end of Sunday 13th (Mon 14th 06z) with late penalties as follows: number of days (by hourly time stamp) squared. 

2.5 days late gets a late penalty of 6.25 points ... etc. 

[wxdude64]

I'll take the first leap...

DCA:  103

NYC:  100

BOS:  101

ORD:  99

BIS:  108

ATL:  99

IAH:  104

DEN:  104

PHX:  117

SEA:  96

[Roger Smith]

101 _ 99 _ 100 _ 98 _ 110 _ 101 _ 106 _ 107 _ 119 _ 99

dca nyc bos ord bis atl iah den phx sea

[Tom]

DCA:  100

NYC:  98

BOS:  98

ORD:  101

BIS:  107

ATL:  101

IAH:  104

DEN:  101

PHX:  121

SEA:  98

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA:  100

NYC:  100

BOS:  99

ORD:  100

BIS:  106

ATL:  99

IAH:  103

DEN:  103

PHX:  120

SEA:  99

[so_whats_happening]

DCA 99

NYC 96

BOS 98

ORD 99

BIS 108

ATL 101

IAH 99

DEN 104

PHX 116

SEA 94

[bkviking]

 

DCA 100

NYC 98

BOS 98

ORD 98

BIS 109

ATL 99

IAH 98

DEN 106

PHX 119

SEA 95

 

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ BIS _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

104     101     998      97      106    105    109   97       117     92   

[wxdude64]

That seems a tad warm for Boston there @Scotty Lightning lol!!

[Roger Smith]

He does have a flame thrower. 

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ BIS _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

102     96       98        97      106    99     103     102    119     94   

[Rjay]

DCA 101

NYC 96 (102 at LGA)

BOS 99

ORD 100

BIS 106

ATL 99

IAH 102

DEN 101

PHX 119

SEA 94

[wxallannj]

DCA 98

NYC 96 

BOS 97

ORD 96

BIS 106

ATL 97

IAH 99

DEN 103

PHX 121

SEA 92

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts __ Seasonal Max 2021

 

FORECASTER ________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _BIS _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

Scotty Lightning ______________ 104 _ 101 __ 98 __ 97 _ 106 _ 105 _ 109 ____ 97 _  117 __ 92   

wxdude64 ____________________ 103 _ 100 _ 101 __ 99 _ 108 __ 99 _ 104 ___ 104 _ 117 __ 96

DonSutherland 1 ______________ 102 __ 96 __ 98 __ 97 _ 106 ___99 _ 103 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 94   

Roger Smith __________________ 101 __ 99 _ 100 __ 98 _ 110 _ 101 _ 106 ___ 107 _ 119 __ 99

RJay __________________________101 __ 96 __ 99 _ 100 _ 106 ___99 _ 102 ___ 101 _ 119 __ 94 

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 100 _ 100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 106 ___99 _ 103 ___ 103 _ 120 __ 99

Tom __________________________ 100 __ 98 __ 98 _ 101 _ 107 _ 101 _ 104 ___ 101 _ 121 __ 98

BKViking ______________________100 __ 98 __ 98 __ 98 _ 109 ___99 __ 98 ___ 106 _ 119 __ 95

so_whats_happening ___________ 99 __ 96 __ 98 __ 99 _ 108 _ 101 __ 99 ___ 104 _ 116 __ 94 

wxallannj _______________________98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 96 _ 106 __ 97 __ 99 ___ 103 _ 121 __ 92

___ consensus (mean) _________ 101 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 107 _ 100 _ 103 ___ 103 _ 119 __ 95

 

Highest to date

__ (updated Jul 31) _____________ 97 __ 98 __100 __ 94 _ 107 __ 95 __ 99 ____102 __118 _ 108

[so_whats_happening]

I will be super impressed by Seattle if that verifies.

[Roger Smith]

13 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I will be super impressed by Seattle if that verifies.

By the consensus or the max forecast? It is super hot out this way right now, all SEA is going to need to break 100 is a land breeze. Highs in the 105-110 range are going to be widespread in the Pac NW and s BC this weekend and most of the following week. I am at nearly 4,000' elevation but right now it's close to 98F and heading for the 103-105 range. Valleys will be hotter. But SEA can hold on to a weak seabreeze, right now I see it is 88 there with a northerly breeze. Probably tops out at 95 today, maybe higher in coming days. 

[Roger Smith]

Well anyway it's now 101 F at SEA, case closed (ended up 102). 

(104 Sunday all time SEA record) (105 hourly 3 pm Monday, could be 106 for the max?) 

108 where I live, probably also all-time record or close to it. 

 

[Roger Smith]

On 6/25/2021 at 10:12 PM, so_whats_happening said:

I will be super impressed by Seattle if that verifies.

Well now 108 has replaced the previous all-time record set the previous day. I am super depressed because I am under the same heat dome with the same temperature here. (Canadian all-time record fell yesterday, now 47.9 C which is 118 F, mind you it's a dry heat, dew points in the 50s).

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Well now 108 has replaced the previous all-time record set the previous day. I am super depressed because I am under the same heat dome with the same temperature here. (Canadian all-time record fell yesterday, now 47.9 C which is 118 F, mind you it's a dry heat, dew points in the 50s).

Wow overall max temps have been very impressive to say the least! Stay safe I know many dont have ac to deal with stuff like this.

[Roger Smith]

The humidity levels are tolerable, so it's just a case of waiting it out. A cold bath helps too. 

[Roger Smith]

Contest standings (Aug 25th 2021) 

__ declared final Sep 26th 2021 __

 

 

FORECASTER ________________DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _BIS _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA__ Total dep

 

 

wxallannj _______________________98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 96 _ 106 __ 97 __ 99 ___ 103 _ 121 __ 92

__ departures __________________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 _____ 1 ___ 3 ___ 16 ____ 30   

 

hudsonvalley21 _______________100 _ 100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 106 ___99 _ 103 ___ 103 _ 120 __ 99

__ departures __________________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 5 ___ 1 ____ 4 ____ 4 _____ 1 ___ 2 ____ 9 ____ 32

BKViking ______________________100 __ 98 __ 98 __ 98 _ 109 ___99 __ 98 ___ 106 _ 119 __ 95

__ departures __________________ 3 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 3 ___ 2 ____ 4 ____ 1 _____ 4 ___ 1 ___ 13 ____ 33   

 

 

___ consensus (mean) _________101 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 107 _ 100 _ 103 ___ 103 _ 119 __ 95

__ departures __________________ 4 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 4 ___ 0 ____ 5 ____ 4 _____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 13 ____ 33 

 

DonSutherland 1 ______________102 __ 96 __ 98 __ 97 _ 106 ___99 _ 103 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 94

__ departures __________________ 5 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ____ 4 ____ 4 _____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 14 ____ 35

so_whats_happening __________ 99 __ 96 __ 98 __ 99 _ 108 _ 101 __ 99 ___ 104 _ 116 __ 94

__ departures __________________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 4 ___ 1 ____ 6 ____ 0 _____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 14 ____ 35    

RJay __________________________101 __ 96 __ 99 _ 100 _ 106 ___99 _ 102 ___ 101 _ 119 __ 94 

__ departures __________________ 4 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 5 ___ 1 ____ 4 ____ 3 _____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 14 ____ 36   

Tom __________________________ 100 __ 98 __ 98 _ 101 _ 107 _ 101 __ 104 ___ 101 _ 121 __ 98

__ departures __________________ 3 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 6 ___ 0 ____ 6 ____ 5 _____ 1 ___ 3 ___ 10 ____ 36   

wxdude64 ____________________103 _ 100 _ 101 __ 99 _ 108 __ 99 _ 104 ___ 104 _ 117 __ 96

__ departures __________________ 6 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 4 ___ 1 ____ 4 ____ 5 _____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 12 ____ 38

Roger Smith __________________101 __ 99 _ 100 __ 98 _ 110 __ 101 _ 106 ___ 107 _ 119 __ 99

__ departures __________________ 4 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 3 ___ 3 ____ 6 ____ 7 _____ 5 ___ 1 ____ 9 ____ 39   

Scotty Lightning ______________104 _ 101 __ 98 __ 97 _ 106 _ 105 _ 109 ____ 97 _  117 __ 92

__ departures __________________ 7 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 10 ___ 10 _____ 5 ___ 1 ___ 16 ____ 57   

 

Highest to date

__ (updated Aug 25) _____________ 97 __ 98 __100 __ 95 _ 107 __ 95 __ 99 ____102 __118 _ 108

_______________________________________________________________________________________

Scores for SEA are no doubt final with the all-time record high set (108F) well above all forecasts.

There is probably a slight chance that any other location could edge higher, although PHX and DEN are probably done.

This is therefore not the final order of the contest, and the standings are quite close near the top. 

(Sep 26 ... no hotter days occurred at any locations so the contest is being declared final, see next post)

 

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[Roger Smith]

This contest is now declared final, congrats to 

** wxallannj in first place (total 30 error points)

** hudsonvalley21 in second (total 32 error points)

** BKViking in third (total 33 error points)

(Tom only forecaster to have two of the ten locations without error points, most of us had one).