Summer 2021 maximum temperature forecast contest _ results posted

[tplbge]

7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Unbelievable that RIC is letting me down.

Me too, but I'm looking good at the other stations. 

[WxWatcher007]

Soooo…I lost?

[Roger Smith]

Contest now declared final, order of finish as follows ...

(note rules to break ties as announced June 12th)

 

Scoring:

same as other years, the sum of your departures from final seasonal max numbers. 

However, I will announce in advance that in the case of a tie (for any position) the order will be determined as follows:

(a) smallest maximum error (separates 3rd, 4th; 5th, 6th; 7th and 8th below, also 13th-14th from 15th-16th, then also 19th and 20th, and 21st from 22nd-23rd, finally 24th and 25th.)

(b) if necessary, second smallest error (defined as smallest of three errors left to separate after (a) eliminated) _ was required to separate 9th and 10th, and 15th, 16th.

(c) if still tied, earliest entry (regardless of edit times if applicable since not visible to readers) _ required to separate 13th and 14th which were identical entries, and 17th, 18th as well as 22nd, 23rd which were not identical but survived both (a) and (b) tests.  

 

CONTEST RESULTS 

_ ties broken as per rules above, showing which rule applied in each tiebreaker

 

Rank __ FORECASTER _________ DCA _IAD _BWI _ RIC _______ Total error 

 

_________ Outcome ______________ 97 _ 100 __ 99 _ 96 

 

_ 1 ___ tplbge (19) ______________ 98 _ 100 __ 99 _ 100

__________________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 4 ____________ 5

_ 2 ___ biodhokie (17) ___________ 97 _ 100 __ 99 _ 102

___________________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 6 ___________ 6

_ 3 ___ GATech (23) _____________ 98 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99

___________________________________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 3 ____________ 7

 

_ 4 ___ mattie g (4) ______________98 _ 100 __ 98 _ 101

__________________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 5 _____________ 7 

_ 5 ___ nw baltimore wx (8) ______98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 99

___________________________________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 3 ____________ 8 

_ 6 ___ A777 (21) _______________ 100 _ 100 _ 100 _ 100

__________________________________ 3 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 4 _____________ 8

_ 7 ___ MNTransplant (19) ______ 99 __ 99 _ 101 _ 101

__________________________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 5 _____________ 10

_ 8 ___ Roger Ramjet (22) ______ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 102

___________________________________2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 6 ____________ 10

 

_ 9 ___ WxWatcher007 (20) ____ 99 __ 97 _ 100 _ 101 

__________________________________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 5 _____________ 11

_10 ___Wxdavis5784 (11) _______ 99 _ 100 _ 103 _ 101

__________________________________ 2 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 5 ____________ 11

_11 ___GramaxRefugee (12) ____ 101 _ 102 _ 102 _ 100

___________________________________4 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 4 ____________ 13

_12 ___storm pc (9) ____________ 101 __ 99 _ 103 _ 101

__________________________________ 4 ___ 1 ___ 4 ___ 5 _____________ 14

 

(13) _ Consensus (mean of 26) _101 _ 101 _ 102 _ 102

___________________________________ 4 ___ 1 ___ 3 ___ 6 ____________ 14

 

_13 ___CAPE (1) ________________ 102 _ 100 _ 103 _ 103

__________________________________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 7 ___________ 16

_14 ___WxUSAF (7) _____________102 _ 100 _ 103 _ 103

__________________________________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 7 ___________ 16

_15 ___NorthArlington101 (14) _ 101 _ 100 _ 103 _ 104

_________________________________ 4 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 8 ____________ 16

_16 ___yoda (15) _______________ 102 _ 100 _ 102 _ 104

_________________________________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 3 ___ 8 ____________ 16

_17 ___toolsheds (16) __________ 104 _ 100 _ 104 _ 101

__________________________________ 7 ___ 0 ___ 5 ___ 5 ____________ 17

_18 ___Weather53 (25) __________102 _ 101 _ 103 _ 103

___________________________________ 5 ___ 1 ___ 4 ___ 7 ___________ 17

_19 ___Roger Smith (--) _________101 _ 102 _ 103 _ 104

__________________________________ 4 ___ 2 ___ 4 ___ 8 ___________ 18

 

_20 ___Rhino16 (3) _____________ 103 _ 101 _ 101 _ 105

__________________________________ 6 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 9 ____________ 18

 

_21 ___SnowenOutThere (24) ___101 _ 104 _ 103 _ 103

__________________________________ 4 ___ 4 ___ 4 ___ 7 ___________ 19

_22 ___wxdude64 (5) ___________ 103 _ 101 _ 103 _ 104

__________________________________ 6 ___ 1 ___ 4 ___ 8 ___________ 19

_23 ___Prince Frederick Wx (10)_ 102 _ 100 _ 105 _ 104

___________________________________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 6 ___ 8 __________ 19

 

_24 ___H2O (13) ________________102 _ 103 _ 104 _ 103

__________________________________ 5 ___ 3 ___ 5 ___ 7 ___________ 20

_25 ___MillvilleWx (6) ___________105 _ 102 _ 102 _ 103

__________________________________ 8 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 7 ____________ 20

_26 ___vastateofmind (11) ______104 _ 102 _ 104 _ 103

__________________________________ 7 ___ 2 ___ 5 ___ 7 ____________ 21

_27 ___George BM (2) __________107 _ 106 _ 107 _ 108

__________________________________10 ___ 6 ___ 8 ___ 12 ___________ 36

___________________________________________________________________

(Numbers in brackets after forecaster name indicate order of entry). 

=====================================================

Congrats to tplbge (or as I cannot pronounce your name and need something familiar, triple bogey).

Brave try for second place biodhokie who got three of four right on. 

Tiebreaker required to establish third place (GA tech) and fourth (mattie g).

_ until next summer, stay cool _ 

 

[WxWatcher007]

All my picks suck  

[tplbge]

My 2nd Summer heat title! 

[H2O]

I would have won if it was dew points.  My guesses were dead on

[Roger Smith]

George would have won if it was where I live (112F June 30th). 

[George BM]

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

George would have won if it was where I live (112F June 30th). 

One of these years...

[Roger Smith]

The max of only 96 at RIC must rank in their top ten all-time lowest values, anyone know what their lowest max on record is? I know that NYC is 90 for that statistic. 

[MN Transplant]

I figured that the ridge out west would hold and we wouldn't go super-high this year, but the final numbers are shockingly low, especially RIC.