wolfie09 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Seeing some lightning off in the distance but looks to miss here just to the north..More convection in Canada probably weakens before getting here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Better chance for convection tomorrow afternoon/evening.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 34 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Seeing some lightning off in the distance but looks to miss here just to the north..More convection in Canada probably weakens before getting here.. I feel like EVERY time I look at the radar this summer Southern Ontario is getting thunderstorms. It's about as guaranteed as Sizzlercuse making it 5 degrees above forecasted highs every day... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Ida is now a cat 3 major hurricane. 1:00 AM CDT Sun Aug 29Location: 27.6°N 88.7°WMoving: NW at 15 mphMin pressure: 955 mbMax sustained: 115 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 New update 935 150mph New Orleans Webcam https://www.earthcam.com/usa/louisiana/neworleans/bourbonstreet/?cam=catsmeow2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 I thought you Syracuse sizzle guys would enjoy this, from today's BGM forecast discussion: Another big temperatures gradient expected today, from east to west: ranging from 70-75 across the Catskills/Poconos, around 80 for the I- 81 corridor from Cortland south to Binghamton and Wilkes- Barre...with low to mid-80s expected across the valleys of the central souther tier, Finger Lakes and Syracuse area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 9 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said: With all eyes on Ida thought I would post a pic of tropical BUF…Taken this evening from top of break wall at Outer Harbor (I paddle boarded out to it). Water temp very warm in this area of the lake, must be upper 70’s. Beautiful....and think how beautiful it could be in 3 months when a sharp cold front crosses and there's cold unstable air rushing over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Alot of rising water already in Grand Isle https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/john.humphress2.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 29, 2021 Author Share Posted August 29, 2021 30 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Alot of rising water already in Grand Isle https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/john.humphress2.html I expect storm surge to be 15-20 feet with this one which will really test the levee system. High Tide 12:59 PM(Sun 29 August) 0.76 ft (0.23 m) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 29, 2021 Author Share Posted August 29, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 29, 2021 Author Share Posted August 29, 2021 Crazy to watch the eye clear out on radar 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Some incredible imagery of IDA this morning from the visible sat, wow! Very bad situation down there and not just for NO but for pretty much everyone in the path and to the East with lots of tornadoes and water spouts so theres not much more to say other than what the Mayor just said, Shelter in Place!!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 29, 2021 Author Share Posted August 29, 2021 @Luke_Mages That new levee system will be getting the test of all tests today 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 9AM update still 150 mph winds but pressure dropped another 5mb to 930mb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 29, 2021 Author Share Posted August 29, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: 9AM update still 150 mph winds but pressure dropped another 5mb to 930mb.. Bayou just read 122...absolute insanity. Didn't think that low of a pressure was possible that far north in gulf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 29, 2021 Author Share Posted August 29, 2021 Looks like faulty equipment with that reading. Still around 930. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 As the day progresses the warm front will continue to push through the remainder of our region. Instability will increase through the afternoon hours, likely reaching 1000 to 1500 J/KG of SBCAPE. PWATS remain high 1.5 to 2.0 inches, and winds aloft are slightly stronger than previous days. This may bring enough storm motion to limit higher end precipitation totals from drenching storms. Still the threat for flooding from training storms or backbuilding storms will need to be monitored within this very humid airmass. Will include heavy rain from thunderstorms within the forecast. The other concern today will be heat index values. Dewpoints will rise into the lower 70s for our region...to even mid 70s near Lake Ontario. However surface temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than recent days as we should have a fair amount of clouds around during the day. These clouds, keeping the region generally in the 80s may be enough to keep heat index values from reaching advisory criteria for areas along the southern Lake Ontario shoreline. None the less, today will be again very warm and humid. Tonight convection will briefly wane with the setting sun. A surface low crossing central Quebec tonight will push a cold front towards our region late tonight. Ahead of this cold front showers and thunderstorms are expected to form with this line of storms reaching much of the region in the last few hours of the night. The 0-6 km bulk wind shear vectors continue to remain weak within this near zonal flow aloft...and the primary threat for storms late tonight will again be heavy rainfall. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A mid level trough and associated surface low will move eastward across central and northern Quebec Monday, with a trailing surface cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes. The passage of the cold front and the southern tail of the mid level trough will still support a likelihood of showers and scattered thunderstorms early Monday morning across much of the area. Rain will then end from northwest to southeast from mid morning through mid afternoon as mid level drying and subsidence moves into the eastern Great Lakes in the wake of the trough passage. Expect at least partial sunshine to develop in the afternoon with the arrival of drier air. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s on the lake plains and upper 70s across higher terrain. Dewpoints may still be in the lower 70s early in the morning, then start to drop back into the 60s in the afternoon as the first installment of somewhat drier air arrives. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 First batch of convection firing up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: First batch of convection firing up.. Got a 2 minute downpour as those were forming. Quite dry here again. My Tempest didn't record that rainfall...something ain't right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 3 hours ago, cny rider said: I thought you Syracuse sizzle guys would enjoy this, from today's BGM forecast discussion: Another big temperatures gradient expected today, from east to west: ranging from 70-75 across the Catskills/Poconos, around 80 for the I- 81 corridor from Cortland south to Binghamton and Wilkes- Barre...with low to mid-80s expected across the valleys of the central souther tier, Finger Lakes and Syracuse area. Haha...I fully expect mid to upper 80s for the Hellmouth known as Syracuse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 SUPER dark outside as this moves in: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Yeah heading down towards the sizzle sizzle and it's starting to pour on 81, looks like a second line developed just behind which should give pulaski a little rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Latest update from the NHC.. Ida still a high end CAT 4.. Speed has slowed down a couple mph.. 11:00 AM CDT Sun Aug 29Location: 28.9°N 90.1°WMoving: NW at 13 mphMin pressure: 933 mbMax sustained: 150 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: That is freakin amazing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 29, 2021 Author Share Posted August 29, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/john.humphress2.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Great footage but a dumb caption. The backside is pretty much never worse. There is nothing logical that could ever back up that statement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Here comes another round of convection.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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