TugHillMatt Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 4 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Chilly afternoon for CNY on the gfs once the rain arrives.. Currently 62° and cloudy.. Feels refreshing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 14 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Feels refreshing! Feels like my pool temp is collapsing instead of people in the streets from the Sizzle! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 45 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Feels like my pool temp is collapsing instead of people in the streets from the Sizzle! Don't you fret. As soon as the sun comes out, it will warm up 15 degrees in 5 minutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 15, 2021 Author Share Posted June 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Don't you fret. As soon as the sun comes out, it will warm up 15 degrees in 5 minutes. Happening here 76 and full sun. Never trust a summer cool down with peak sun strength, very rare. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 18 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Another one WOW....That's poster sized frame worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 Latest CPC medium-long range.. Gfs brings some more below average temps D 7+ behind a CF.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Latest CPC medium-long range.. Gfs brings some more below average temps D 7+ behind a CF.. Beautiful, LOCK IT IN for rest of the summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 16, 2021 Author Share Posted June 16, 2021 Insane, its only June, July/August are warmer out there then June is. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 43.9° for the low, feels like mid October lol Currently sunny and 56°.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 10 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Insane, its only June, July/August are warmer out there then June is. Where is that for? June is the hottest month in southern Arizona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 14 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Latest CPC medium-long range.. Gfs brings some more below average temps D 7+ behind a CF.. Loving it, we are going hiking in the Adirondacks the last 5 days of the month. Brisk, glorious bike ride to work this morning. 48F when I left home under clear skies and early sunshine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 16, 2021 Author Share Posted June 16, 2021 25 minutes ago, cny rider said: Loving it, we are going hiking in the Adirondacks the last 5 days of the month. Brisk, glorious bike ride to work this morning. 48F when I left home under clear skies and early sunshine. I'll be there hiking June 24-27! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 16, 2021 Author Share Posted June 16, 2021 29 minutes ago, cny rider said: Where is that for? June is the hottest month in southern Arizona. Oh I thought July/August were hotter. I just read something that its never been this hot this early in Phoenix. Figured July/Aug were warmer based on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 16, 2021 Author Share Posted June 16, 2021 I think July/Aug are the warmest months in Phoenix. Month Low High Jan 43.4°F 65.0°F Feb 47.0°F 69.4°F Mar 51.1°F 74.3°F Apr 57.5°F 83.0°F May 66.3°F 91.9°F Jun 75.2°F 102.0°F Jul 81.4°F 104.2°F Aug 80.4°F 102.4°F Sept 74.5°F 97.4°F Oct 62.9°F 86.4°F Nov 50.0°F 73.3°F Dec 43.5°F 65.0°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 I was thinking of this map, showing when the hottest day of the year is likely to occur: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/warmest-day-of-the-year I am fascinated by how different the timing is for different areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, cny rider said: That’s interesting! I think of July & August as the classic summer months (probably due to the school schedule), but it does seem that June & July are the really hot months around here. By August the really hot spells are *generally* shorter in duration and the nights are usually cooling off better, especially by late August. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 Hottest temp here is between July 21st-july 26th, we start dropping in temp on the 27th and lose about 4° in August, this is according to NOAA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 16, 2021 Author Share Posted June 16, 2021 July 14th-22nd Buffalo is warmest for Buffalo, starts dropping on July 23rd. Overall August is a much warmer month than June is. Early June can still be quite chilly, pretty rare in August. Early June averages here are comparable to Mid September. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 Friday likely starts out dry, but remaining ridging influence will fade through the day as height falls begin to work into western New York as an upper wave drifts southeast through Ontario. This system will draw moisture northward into the eastern Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley by late Friday into Friday night as surface dewpoints climb into the lower 60s. This will bring an increasing risk for convection as we move through the day Friday and into Friday night. Fairly impressive shear profiles develop with a nearly 50 kt low level jet punching into western New York by Friday evening. Resulting bulk shear (0-6 km) tops out near 50 kts overnight Friday night. Cold front timing is still in question but looking to be later Friday night which may overtake an unstable airmass expected to be still in place, bringing at least some severe weather potential before Saturday morning. SPC has placed all of western and north central New York in a marginal risk in their latest day 3 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 Pretty much a second straight 66° max, "officially" 65.7° on the day, we have since dropped a couple degrees...NWS forecast for the last 2 days had 66° and 67°, so spot on for the most part.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 If euro is to be believed on Tuesday we should max out early before a CF pushes through, several comfortable days to follow...(Tues, Wed, Thursday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 Sunday will be dry before the next potential for rain. An area of low pressure will track northeast across the Great Lakes and into Quebec on Monday, causing increased POPs starting early Monday morning for WNY. As this sfc low tracks northeast, its widespread shield of rain will approach and go mostly over and north of Lake Ontario, but the southern and eastern portion of the area of showers will overspread WNY. As the sfc low tracks northeast, the trailing cold front will cross the area, extending the potential for showers. As the area of low pressure takes a more northerly oriented track, the frontal passage will slow down some over the area, increasing the potential for a more prolonged shower/rain event. Some guidance is suggesting, with the slower frontal passage, an additional wave of low pressure will track northeast along the boundary, bringing the potential for another round of rain Tuesday morning continuing through most of the day. High pressure over the center of the country should start to approach the region on Wednesday, providing a dry day. Temperatures during the long term period will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s Sunday and Monday. Behind the passing front, temps on Tuesday and Wednesday will drop to the mid 60s over the higher elevations to the low 70s for the lower elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 8 hours ago, winter_rules said: That’s interesting! I think of July & August as the classic summer months (probably due to the school schedule), but it does seem that June & July are the really hot months around here. By August the really hot spells are *generally* shorter in duration and the nights are usually cooling off better, especially by late August. I work seasonal construction and I can start to notice subtle changes before most (helps I also enjoy weather haha) I think you pretty much nailed august. I wake up at 5am daily and currently dont need any lights on by the time im downstairs. It will stay this way for a few more weeks until I realize I need the kitchen light on ect.. August is the first subtle hints at fall approaching. Toronto rarely sees 40s or even lower 50s for about 45-60 days in mid summer. Most nights from now until Mid august is 55-60F and above. After mid August though is when we get that first 49F and you can feel it in the air that the seasons are getting ready to change. Mid August-Mid October is one of my favourite times of the year for that. Still summer type weather most days but the first cool shots and leaves changing begins 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 35° this morning with frost on a couple lawns and roofs. My neighbor on the hill above me had 46°. I'm curious how CNY riders bike ride to work this morning was. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 Brisk! I left the house at 43F; I would guesstimate it was in the upper 30's down in the valley below. I was in a double layer top, light thermal cap under my helmet, and light gloves. No the usual June attire but a spectacular morning nonetheless. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 On 6/15/2021 at 11:13 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Insane, its only June, July/August are warmer out there then June is. This is the type of Sizzle we need in the Cuse! Sadly, we only get this type of warmup during midwinter. Going to run my Planet Killing SUV continuously the rest of summer to help pump up the CO2! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 17, 2021 Author Share Posted June 17, 2021 Freezing this morning. Got offered a position in west palm beach through my employer. Going back and forth on taking it. Have to take care of my mom or I think I would be a Floridian right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 Focus for this period will be on convection/severe weather potential. Although it looks like Friday will start out dry, models suggesting a decaying convective complex will start to ride into western New York later in the morning. The ability for this complex to maintain itself as it moves east across the area will likely have a lot to say about convective potential later in the afternoon and into the evening. The expectation is that at least several hours of insolation will be needed for the atmosphere to recover and destabilize sufficiently. By late in the day Friday and into Friday evening, the area will be in the midst of a surge of moist/warm advection in a strengthening southwest flow. Although the better instability is expected to remain south of the area across the Ohio Valley, wind fields begin to ramp up with favorable shear profiles developing by Friday evening with 0-6 km bulk shear values climbing to over 50 kts. This will bring at least some severe weather potential late Friday/Friday evening and possibly into the overnight hours with southwest portions of the area now outlooked in a slight risk by SPC with the remainder of the area remaining outlooked in a marginal risk. With the larger scale trough still hanging over the region and a surface cold front crossing the region, convection will remain possible during the day Saturday before tapering down Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 17, 2021 Author Share Posted June 17, 2021 5% tornado pretty close in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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