BuffaloWeather Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 Clouds will increase across the Northern Rockies from the north tonight, ahead of a slow moving low pressure circulation that will bring rain to the area and clear much of the wildfire smoke over Tuesday and Wednesday. Most model guidance currently favor rainfall in the 0.50"+ along the Continental Divide, plus from the Bitteroot Crest and points east (much of west central and southwest Montana). For some locations, temperatures will cool more than 30 degrees from today to Wednesday. There may be a healthy dusting of snow for peaks over 8000 feet on Wednesday morning. North winds are anticipated to gust to 30 mph on both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Most global models suggest that a series of cool and marginally wet storm systems will cycle over the Northern Rockies Thursday through the middle of next week. Temperatures will remain a bit cooler than the seasonal average during this time, however a warming trend will slowly materialize by early next week. The most encouraging news related to this change in pattern is much less wildfire smoke in the air for most locations (away from active fires). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 12 August 2021 ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January). Recently, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were near-to-below average in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, with above-average SSTs in the far eastern Pacific [Fig. 1]. In the last week, most Niño indices were slightly negative (-0.2°C to -0.3°C) except for the Niño-1+2 index, which was +0.7°C [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures cooled considerably in July, becoming quite negative (averaged from 180-100°W; [Fig. 3]), reflecting the emergence of below-average subsurface temperatures east of the Date Line [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly across the eastern Pacific. Tropical convection was suppressed over the western Pacific Ocean and enhanced over a small region near Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Given the surface conditions, the ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral. Compared to last month, forecasts from the IRI/CPC plume are generally cooler in the Niño-3.4 SST region during the fall and winter 2021-22 [Fig. 6]. Recent model runs from the NCEP CFSv2 and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble suggest the onset of a weak La Niña in the coming months, persisting through winter 2021-22. The forecaster consensus continues to favor these models, which is also supported by the noticeable decrease in the observed subsurface temperature anomalies this past month. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 September 2021. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 12 August 2021 ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January). Recently, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were near-to-below average in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, with above-average SSTs in the far eastern Pacific [Fig. 1]. In the last week, most Niño indices were slightly negative (-0.2°C to -0.3°C) except for the Niño-1+2 index, which was +0.7°C [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures cooled considerably in July, becoming quite negative (averaged from 180-100°W; [Fig. 3]), reflecting the emergence of below-average subsurface temperatures east of the Date Line [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly across the eastern Pacific. Tropical convection was suppressed over the western Pacific Ocean and enhanced over a small region near Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Given the surface conditions, the ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral. Compared to last month, forecasts from the IRI/CPC plume are generally cooler in the Niño-3.4 SST region during the fall and winter 2021-22 [Fig. 6]. Recent model runs from the NCEP CFSv2 and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble suggest the onset of a weak La Niña in the coming months, persisting through winter 2021-22. The forecaster consensus continues to favor these models, which is also supported by the noticeable decrease in the observed subsurface temperature anomalies this past month. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 September 2021. Lets hope for a weak nina/neutral Enso conditions for winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 19 hours ago, champy said: In mid-August 2005 we tent camped with my parents in the mountains in Jasper National Park in Alberta. We had rain all day and went to our campsite at about 6000' where it turned to straight up slush snow. First time experiencing snow in August - awesome experience...for me at least. Not sure everyone else in camp appreciated it lol Do you think I should bring my micro-spikes just in case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Do you think I should bring my micro-spikes just in case? You're so privileged... Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 Euro with some significant rain for parts of C/E NY due to tropical moisture streaming north..The western Atlantic ridge will have a lot to say on where the heaviest tropical moisture persist.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 51 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro with some significant rain for parts of C/E NY due to tropical moisture streaming north..The western Atlantic ridge will have a lot to say on where the heaviest tropical moisture persist.. I’m hoping it’s not where that map shows it…my back yard. It has taken us 2 weeks of dry weather for the ground to start to firm up and I’m really hoping we don’t go back to soft summer mud, again….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 This section from the AFD is a little odd. The remnants of Fred appear to be ancient history by the time the weekend rolls around. I mean even by Thursday its pretty much spun out to absolutely nothing (not that it was even much to start with). Strange to see them think it would have any sort of effect by the weekend. The Buffalo NWS certainly makes me scratch my head sometimes. ".LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Unsettled conditions continue into the weekend as remnants of Tropical Storm Fred track into southern New England. It remains undetermined whether remnants of Fred will stay east of the forecast area. A closed low over the Great Lakes may draw some moisture back into the region. Either way, weak forcing and diurnal heating will lead to the chance for showers and storms Friday-Friday night. The cut-off low will merge with an approaching trough over the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms are possible. A cold front will track across the region associated with a surface low well to the north. Little change in temperatures as an upper level ridge builds back into the region Sunday-Monday. Temperatures stay above normal through the weekend. A slightly stronger ridge might bring even warmer temperatures into the region early next week." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 Warm front this evening/early morning.. 3k wants to bring the remnants through W/C PA and into NY state.. Albeit LR 3k NAM.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 Midday sfc analysis shows high holding over New England with sfc low over eastern Ohio and inverted trough extending from the low to LE and southwest NYS. Showers, no thunder, with pockets of moderate rain is arriving over southwest NYS, west of a line from DKK to JHW. Elsewhere, clouds will continue to thicken from the south, though skies will stay mostly sunny east of Lake Ontario the rest of today. Initial band of showers will lift across rest of western NY to Genesee Valley by late afternoon into early evening. Thunder chances for rest of today look minimal, but will increase tonight as stronger lift/moisture advection takes shape as sfc low and warm front approach. PWATs increase to 1.8 to 2 inches tonight into Tuesday as sfc low and warm front lift northward into our area, so heavy downpours will eventually become a hazard tonight in the stronger showers and storms. Bulk of troposphere becoming saturated tonight into Tuesday morning with upslope flow into the terrain of Southern Tier to east of Lake Ontario will result in some fog as well. Warm front continues to lift across our region on Tuesday. Along and ahead of the front is where the most widespread shower/thunderstorm activity will be found. Initially that will be southeast and east of Lake Ontario, then with increased heating and resulting instability during the day, showers or a thunderstorm will increase in coverage in the afternoon. Showers and storms on Tuesday will be slow moving and warm rain processes will be dominant. A bit of a signal for heavier rain is showing up in various high res guidance and HREF probabilities near the warm front southeast and east of Lake Ontario on Tuesday afternoon. Latest WPC excessive rainfall outlook now includes a slight risk of exceeding FFG for this area on to the south and east with marginal risk elsewhere. Will continue the mention of heavy rain where pops are likely or higher and keep mention in the HWO as well. If area of expected rain was larger and/or FFG was lower would have considered a Flood Watch. Right now held off on that though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Warm front this evening/early morning.. 3k wants to bring the remnants through W/C PA and into NY state.. Albeit LR 3k NAM.. Would love to see this verify! Thats a solid hit for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Had some nice downpours here last night. 0.79 inch in the rain gauge this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Picked up 1.24" overnight, rain has pretty much stopped for the time being, currently 67°.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 We could see some decent rains from Fred if it takes this kind of track.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Picked up 1.24" overnight, rain has pretty much stopped for the time being, currently 67°.. Man, we only got a 0.10"... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 The remnants of Fred a little stronger and a touch NW on the GFS but keeps the bulk of the heavy rain off to the the south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: The remnants of Fred a little stronger and a touch NW on the GFS but keeps the bulk of the heavy rain off to the the south and east. A low pressure going west of Syracuse? A precursor to winter? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 More convection starting to fire up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 A warm front remains across Lake Ontario to between SYR and RME so all but northern sections of North Country are in the warm sector. Earlier moderate to heavy rain over North Country has ended. Totals with the first round of rain since last night exceeded 1.8 inches over northern Lewis county with amounts over 1.25 from Watertown to Old Forge per NY Mesonet site. Attention is now turning to scattered showers developing in the heat/humidity of the day as convective temps were only in the mid 70s per 12z BUF sounding. PWAT on that sounding was 1.89 or almost 175 pct of normal. Shear is weak today less than 25 kts, but that also means individual cells are not moving very fast. Given the slow storm motion, warm cloud processes dominating, and small MBE vectors in forecast soundings, all storms could produce heavy downpours and there could be training storms as well. Thus far, limited instability and weak shear is not allowing for strong convective activity, though it is early in the afternoon still. Signal still there in recent high res guidance and HREF for swath of heavier rain to develop southeast of Lake Ontario into Oswego and Lewis county. As of now though, latest indications are that this may end up missing area in northern Lewis that saw the heaviest rain last night and fall over areas that saw under an inch of rain last night. So, will hold off on issuing a watch for the convection this afternoon and early evening. Lack of synoptic forcing and removal of daytime heating will allow convection to diminish in coverage later tonight. A warm and muggy day is guaranteed for Wednesday. Remnants of once TS Fred are forecast to track across central Pennsylvania to upper Genesee valley later Wednesday into Wednesday night which is a westward trend, though still trying to assess exactly how far west into our forecast area the remnants and associated heavy rain will track. Initially could see heavy downpours into Southern Tier as early as Wednesday morning before the remnants of Fred fully arrive by later afternoon. Where the remnants track on Wednesday night, widespread heavy rain will occur. Right now, best chance of that will be Allegany county to Finger Lakes eastward. Given the trends, likely will eventually need watches for part of our area due to the heavy rain from the remnants of Fred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Euro makes a right turn sparring us from the worst.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Convection finally made it here and it's pouring.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Flood watch issued.. Flood Watch National Weather Service Buffalo NY 259 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 NYZ004>006-008-013-014-020-021-180300- /O.NEW.KBUF.FF.A.0003.210818T1200Z-210819T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Lewis-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus- Allegany- Including the cities of Geneseo, Oswego, Olean, Newark, Lowville, Wellsville, Fair Haven, and Canandaigua 259 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of central and western New York, including the following counties, in central New York, Lewis, Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Livingston, Ontario and Wayne. * From Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. * Widespread heavy rain of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 4 inches is expected as the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred impact the Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes and into the North Country Wednesday through Wednesday night. * Runoff from heavy rain may cause rapid rises on creeks and streams, leading to flash flooding. The heavy rain may also result in flooding of poor drainage areas and low-lying areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 The Southerly wind kicked in, putting Syracuse 6 degrees warmer than the forecasted high and yet again making it the hottest location in the state at 83 degrees today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Rates nearing 3" per hour, nearing an additional inch so far this afternoon.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Getting good rains here right now as well. Looks like we have some training setting up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Getting good rains here right now as well. Looks like we have some training setting up. We need this in Dec/Jan. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Moisture slowly moving out of the area, right around 2.30" on the day, still raining albeit lightly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Nam pretty much dry slots us tomorrow, not that we need the rain..(Imby) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 17, 2021 Author Share Posted August 17, 2021 Just south of Syracuse BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Binghamton NY 627 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Cayuga County in central New York... Southern Onondaga County in central New York... Southern Seneca County in central New York... Southeastern Yates County in central New York... * Until 930 PM EDT. * At 627 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain training across the warned area. Between 3 and 3.5 inches of rain has already fallen in some locations. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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