Upstate/Eastern New York

[BuffaloWeather]

5 hours ago, WNash said:

Same, absolutely disgusting. This is the most miserable weather we get IMO. I’d rather live through three months of those cold, damp springs that everyone hates because they get in the way of our great early summers rather than put up the grueling, soupy misery we get every few years in July and/or August. I spent about ten minutes doing yard work yesterday morning and I had to take a second shower. My three year old cried when I suggested we play outdoors - she has respiratory problems and this weather makes outdoor activity a challenge for her. What’s worse, it’s so continuously humid that my central a/c unit is having trouble keeping up, and it feel sticky inside and outside. Absolutely cannot wait for this to break for good.

Well I just wanted the storms. I love this weeks weather, has been perfect pool day pretty much everyday the last week. I would take this year long.

[lakeeffectkid383]

31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Well I just wanted the storms. I love this weeks weather, has been perfect pool day pretty much everyday the last week. I would take this year long.

This weeks weather is gross. Can’t even swim as I’m going to have to spend hours cleaning the pool after yesterday’s storms knocked literally thousands of leaves into it. Only good thing about this weather is tracking some big thunderstorms but as we saw last night that was a bust. We shall see how today goes. 

[TugHillMatt]

6 hours ago, WNash said:

Same, absolutely disgusting. This is the most miserable weather we get IMO. I’d rather live through three months of those cold, damp springs that everyone hates because they get in the way of our great early summers rather than put up the grueling, soupy misery we get every few years in July and/or August. I spent about ten minutes doing yard work yesterday morning and I had to take a second shower. My three year old cried when I suggested we play outdoors - she has respiratory problems and this weather makes outdoor activity a challenge for her. What’s worse, it’s so continuously humid that my central a/c unit is having trouble keeping up, and it feel sticky inside and outside. Absolutely cannot wait for this to break for good.

 

5 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

This weeks weather is gross. Can’t even swim as I’m going to have to spend hours cleaning the pool after yesterday’s storms knocked literally thousands of leaves into it. Only good thing about this weather is tracking some big thunderstorms but as we saw last night that was a busy. We shall see how today goes. 

No surprise...I agree with both of you. Lol 

Today will be day 16 of stupid Syracuse hitting the 90s and having this awful soup weather. The sauna of New York state...

Some relief (albeit temporary) this weekend!

 

 

 

 

[wolfie09]

As per SPC..."The new model data suggests that a line segment will
form during the early afternoon across western and northern New
York, with this line moving east-southeastward into central New York
and western New England during the late afternoon. RAP forecast
soundings at 21Z from central New York into Vermont have veered low-
level winds to the southwest with speed shear in the mid-levels.
This combined with steep low-level lapse rates will aid downdraft
acceleration, making damaging winds possible with the stronger parts
of the line."

The very high Tds will also allow apparent temps to climb to between
95 and 100 for the bulk of the region...despite the cloud cover.
Heat advisories will remain in place for all but the Srn Tier and
Lewis county where higher terrain will offer some relief from the
sweltering heat.

The convection will quickly die off after sunset this evening...
leaving behind only widely separated showers and weaker thunderstorm
activity. Temps will once again hold well abv normal with readings
only bottoming out in the lower 70s for the bulk of the region.

[Syrmax]

15 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I visited Siracusa back in the day when my submarine pulled in there for several days of R&R in Sicilia (great place BTW and trip up to Mt Aetna was fabulous, esp as it wasn't erupting ).  Now we need to be channeling the REAL SizzleCuse!  BTW, pool temp was up to 86F yesterday, tying my all time high pool temp record.  Another few days month or so of oppressive heat & humidity would be nice.

[Syrmax]

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

 

No surprise...I agree with both of you. Lol 

Today will be day 16 of stupid Syracuse hitting the 90s and having this awful soup weather. The sauna of New York state...

Some relief (albeit temporary) this weekend!

 

 

 

 

Sizzle Sizzle!  Can't wait for new ALL TIME HIGH TEMPS throughout Winter.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Well I just wanted the storms. I love this weeks weather, has been perfect pool day pretty much everyday the last week. I would take this year long.

That’s about the only way this weather is nice is if you have a pool.  Saving all my outdoor errands and activities for the weekend.  Sun upper 70s and low dews.  

[BuffaloWeather]

49 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

That’s about the only way this weather is nice is if you have a pool.  Saving all my outdoor errands and activities for the weekend.  Sun upper 70s and low dews.  

Yeah I love it. Went for a 3 mile run yesterday. The more humid the better.

[BuffaloWeather]

2 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Sizzle Sizzle!  Can't wait for new ALL TIME HIGH TEMPS throughout Winter.

It's coming. I would take last winter over again though, lots of good LES bands over WNY. The year before had none whatsoever.

[BuffaloWeather]

[wolfie09]

Last few runs of the HRRR keeps everything south for today..

[Syrmax]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah I love it. Went for a 3 mile run yesterday. The more humid the better.

weak sauce heat wave, if that's what this is.  Still just mid 80s around here.  KSYR actually hit 90 the past couple of days for a cup of coffee each day (one reporting hour each day).  Granted, very humid, which is lousy for outdoor workers, but the cloudiness is keeping a lid on things.  The hype over heat index is overdone yet again.  No surprise.  We're used to this with Winter Storm Warnings underperforming.  It keeps us in good practice.

 

[wolfie09]

The potential for severe weather continues to diminish for our
forecast area, with a limited risk for strong thunderstorms
through early evening.

Remnants of a convective complex across Western New York will
continue to help suppress convection across the area.
Impressive wind fields are still in place, and this will likely
support strong storms to our south and east. Following this, SPC
has updated its slight risk area to only include far southern
and eastern portions of our cwa. For the Buffalo and Rochester
metro areas, this means scattered thunderstorms may develop this
afternoon, but the risk for severe weather is low but non-zero.
There still remains a decent risk for gusty winds and heavy
rain in the slight risk area, but the time window for these
areas is closing also, with most of the showers and storms
expected to be out of the forecast area around 6 p.m.

[DeltaT13]

The weather has been absolutely perfect this week, straight up tropical with these dp's.  The air feels like a soft warm blanket especially with these overnight lows in the mid 70's.  I laid out watching the perseid meteors at 3am and it was 75!  I wouldn't want this for months on end, but a couple weeks is absolutely glorious.  I'll be sad to see it go.  

As for the storms, yeah that was a disappointment.  I feel like immediately after my post yesterday saying that the HiRes NAM had been doing well lately it has completely shit the bed the last 24 hours with completely bogus outputs. Ugh.. 

[DeltaT13]

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It's coming. I would take last winter over again though, lots of good LES bands over WNY. The year before had none whatsoever.

Those 6 weeks from the last week of January to the first week of March were incredible.  I think we will look back on that run in a few years and realize it was under appreciated.  And yes, Lake Erie brought the goods a few times as well.  That day after Christmas chase was epic.  I gave last winter a solid B even though it all came in one 6 week period.

[BuffaloWeather]

I knew the roads have been getting busier but did not expect that big of an increase. The traffic in Hamburg is insane lately.

From April 1, 2010, to April 1, 2020, the population in Erie County increased by 35,196 people, from a total of 919,040 people in 2010 to 954,236 in 2020.

The news is even better for adults. According to the new data, the population in Erie County of people 18 and older increased by 42,024, a 5.8% change from 10 years ago.

In addition, the population in the City of Buffalo grew by 6.5% in the last ten years. Increasing from 261,310 people in 2010 to 278,349 in 2020, according to the new U.S. Census data. 

Erie County is the only county in the Western New York area with a total population increase in the last ten years. Niagara and Genesee counties, however, did see small increases in people 18 and over, but the total population in those counties is down from 10 years ago.

https://www.wgrz.com/article/news/local/erie-county-population-grew-for-first-time-in-decades/71-84df3983-72c5-4fce-b804-2c727219ea37?fbclid=IwAR1uBe25EznKzBgjCX6Km_cgxqMTrStRgBoCV8Z1cPn6kpiJqx-iyEXMxHo

[DeltaT13]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I knew the roads have been getting busier but did not expect that big of an increase. The traffic in Hamburg is insane lately.

From April 1, 2010, to April 1, 2020, the population in Erie County increased by 35,196 people, from a total of 919,040 people in 2010 to 954,236 in 2020.

The news is even better for adults. According to the new data, the population in Erie County of people 18 and older increased by 42,024, a 5.8% change from 10 years ago.

In addition, the population in the City of Buffalo grew by 6.5% in the last ten years. Increasing from 261,310 people in 2010 to 278,349 in 2020, according to the new U.S. Census data. 

Erie County is the only county in the Western New York area with a total population increase in the last ten years. Niagara and Genesee counties, however, did see small increases in people 18 and over, but the total population in those counties is down from 10 years ago.

https://www.wgrz.com/article/news/local/erie-county-population-grew-for-first-time-in-decades/71-84df3983-72c5-4fce-b804-2c727219ea37?fbclid=IwAR1uBe25EznKzBgjCX6Km_cgxqMTrStRgBoCV8Z1cPn6kpiJqx-iyEXMxHo

That's really impressive and encouraging for good ol Buf!    I think Monroe county and Rochester has lost residents every year for 2 decades straight.  We are the poorest city in America for our size and have one of the highest crime rates in the nation.  Rochester is barely treading water these days....eek..  

[wolfie09]

A full 2000 people here 

I think the high was 2300 in 2010..

With that being said it usually feels like a whole lot more..Who knew the area could be such a tourist attraction? Lol

Every fall the Salmon River is a magnet for anglers across the Northeast and beyond.

Studies conducted by the state Department of Environmental Conservation have indicated more 1.1 million angler hours are spent on this waterway each year -- more than all the other Lake Ontario tributaries combined.

The DEC estimates some 200,000 anglers fish the river throughout the year (many in the fall) and that 62 percent are from out of state. The top 10 states of residency of those out-of-state anglers are Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maryland, Virginia and Maine.

[wolfie09]

Sizzle Sizzle wise we hit 88, 88 and 85 the last 3 days, as Max alluded to they didn't last for long, most of today has been in the upper 70, low 80s with cloud cover, DPs suck though lol

[Buckeyes_Suck]

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I knew the roads have been getting busier but did not expect that big of an increase. The traffic in Hamburg is insane lately.

From April 1, 2010, to April 1, 2020, the population in Erie County increased by 35,196 people, from a total of 919,040 people in 2010 to 954,236 in 2020.

The news is even better for adults. According to the new data, the population in Erie County of people 18 and older increased by 42,024, a 5.8% change from 10 years ago.

In addition, the population in the City of Buffalo grew by 6.5% in the last ten years. Increasing from 261,310 people in 2010 to 278,349 in 2020, according to the new U.S. Census data. 

Erie County is the only county in the Western New York area with a total population increase in the last ten years. Niagara and Genesee counties, however, did see small increases in people 18 and over, but the total population in those counties is down from 10 years ago.

https://www.wgrz.com/article/news/local/erie-county-population-grew-for-first-time-in-decades/71-84df3983-72c5-4fce-b804-2c727219ea37?fbclid=IwAR1uBe25EznKzBgjCX6Km_cgxqMTrStRgBoCV8Z1cPn6kpiJqx-iyEXMxHo

I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the population of Erie county doubled in the next 30 years due to global warming. 

[BuffaloWeather]

4 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

That's really impressive and encouraging for good ol Buf!    I think Monroe county and Rochester has lost residents every year for 2 decades straight.  We are the poorest city in America for our size and have one of the highest crime rates in the nation.  Rochester is barely treading water these days....eek..  

I wish there were less people. The roads are so crowded compared to when I first moved here. I swear 50% of that population increase is in Hamburg. They've been building nonstop in any possible vacant land for the last 10 years straight.

[tim123]

Actually roc and monroe county gained past 10 years

[DeltaT13]

4 hours ago, tim123 said:

Actually roc and monroe county gained past 10 years

Aside from a tiny little gain from 2008-2010 (because of the crash) it’s been all downhill since the 50s

[Syrmax]

13 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I wish there were less people. The roads are so crowded compared to when I first moved here. I swear 50% of that population increase is in Hamburg. They've been building nonstop in any possible vacant land for the last 10 years straight.

I'm going to suspect that pop trends are largely continuing as they have, meaning urban areas probably static at best and the more "successful/desirable" burbs growing. I know we are seeing increased development, and road traffic, in Clay. 

[wolfie09]

With the anticipation of isolated strong to severe storms
today...12z Buffalo sounding shows a moist airmass still in
place with a PWAT of 1.72in. Effective and 0-6km bulk shear
around 20-25kts with forecast surface based CAPE around 1000
J/kg. Dry in the mid-levels and DCAPE around 800 J/kg shows the
risk of downburst potential in growing thunderstorms this
afternoon into this evening. As of 11am, CIN is diminishing
across the region.

While the VAST majority of today will feature rain free weather...
a warm humid airmass lies in wait for a cold front that will press
through the region late this afternoon and evening. This will
encourage increasing pops through the course of the day...with the
most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity coming after 3 PM
when synoptic lift and diurnal instability will be at their
greatest. Td`s in the lower 70s for the bulk of the region with PWAT
values of 1.75 to 2" will nearly guarantee torrential downpours
with convection...so have continued mention of heavy rain. Bulk
shear only in the ballpark of 25kts...so not as confident with
potential for severe storms. Regardless...forecast area is in a
marginal risk area as deemed by SPC.

[vortmax]

14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

With the anticipation of isolated strong to severe storms
today...12z Buffalo sounding shows a moist airmass still in
place with a PWAT of 1.72in. Effective and 0-6km bulk shear
around 20-25kts with forecast surface based CAPE around 1000
J/kg. Dry in the mid-levels and DCAPE around 800 J/kg shows the
risk of downburst potential in growing thunderstorms this
afternoon into this evening. As of 11am, CIN is diminishing
across the region.

While the VAST majority of today will feature rain free weather...
a warm humid airmass lies in wait for a cold front that will press
through the region late this afternoon and evening. This will
encourage increasing pops through the course of the day...with the
most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity coming after 3 PM
when synoptic lift and diurnal instability will be at their
greatest. Td`s in the lower 70s for the bulk of the region with PWAT
values of 1.75 to 2" will nearly guarantee torrential downpours
with convection...so have continued mention of heavy rain. Bulk
shear only in the ballpark of 25kts...so not as confident with
potential for severe storms. Regardless...forecast area is in a
marginal risk area as deemed by SPC.

Would be nice to get some rain here as we've got nothing over the past couple of days.

[wolfie09]

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Was hoping to go to the fair tonight if no rain. Hopefully hits farther east. 

[lakeeffectkid383]

5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

 

BuffaloWeather we need to buy a whole fleet of drones and line them up between Toledo and Cleveland come mid to late November when a SW wind is present

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

BuffaloWeather we need to buy a whole fleet of drones and line them up between Toledo and Cleveland come mid to late November when a SW wind is present

Yes please. I will one day get my waterspout and shelf cloud.