wolfie09 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 We hit 89 sizzle degrees but clouds have knocked us back a few.. The end is near dear lol 5 Weeks from upper 60s on average.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 It’s freaking hot out! That’s all… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: We hit 89 sizzle degrees but clouds have knocked us back a few.. The end is near dear lol 5 Weeks from upper 60s on average.. Yes, but… that ridge showing up next on the models looks stout. Maybe snap right back to serious heat after weekend “cool” down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 13 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: It’s freaking hot out! That’s all… Hang in there, fall is coming. Let's hope this week is the last heat wave for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Power out in Clarence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Rgem with some decent convection tomorrow and again on Friday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Potential exist for really heavy rain although the rgem is most likely overboard.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 3k has some stronger storms moving through tomorrow evening as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 88 deg at BUF nearing 9pm!! Don’t know if stats are kept for “highest temp ever at 9pm” but this has to be close. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 10, 2021 Author Share Posted August 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: 88 deg at BUF nearing 9pm!! Don’t know if stats are kept for “highest temp ever at 9pm” but this has to be close. Takes my night walks to a new level, just fantastic humidity 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Damn that's crazy lol It's hot here but not that hot, 78.6°.. Dewpoints suck but I'll make it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 10, 2021 Author Share Posted August 10, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem with some decent convection tomorrow and again on Friday.. Is that a shelf cloud over the lake I see? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 6 hours ago, Syrmax said: I've got 85F here in the burbs. Helluva way to run a "deadly heatwave"...where the Sizzle? I'm back in Michigan visiting all of our friends and celebrating my 40th birthday (time goes sooo fast). Sorry (not sorry) for ruining your sizzle. You reported a cool breeze by your pool? I see my ice cubes are working... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 After that, strong storms still expected for afternoon and evening hours as shortwave on southern edge of mid-level trough currently driving storms northern IN to se MI arrives during peak heating with at least weak sfc troughing also noted moving into WNY this afternoon. Ample instability with MLCAPES 1500-2000J/kg and shear is coming up now, with at least 25-30kts, still weak, but more than it looked like a couple days ago. Low-level shear is stronger though at 30-35 kts. Risk of severe looks justified with multicell downbursts/wind damage the most likely mode. Heavy rain a hazard also with PWATS to 1.8 inches or closing in on 200 pct of normal so we remain under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall from WPC. SPC continues to keep our area in a marginal risk of severe. Some storms as well again on Wednesday with MLCAPES 2000-2500J/kg that is VERY impressive for our region. Given the instability alone, even though shear is lower, could see isolated downbursts and wind damage along with torrential downpours. Coverage of storms, at least most of Wednesday, looks a bit lower than what we we`ll see this afternoon. Coverage may increase late with approach of another shortwave trough in the quasi-zonal flow. SPC and WPC have marginal risks again for our area for severe and excessive rainfall. Attention will then turn to a weakening boundary that will approach the eastern Great Lakes during the afternoon and evening. While 0- 6km shear is unimpressive at 25-30 knots, forecast BUFKIT CAPE values are rather healthy and north of 2K J/KG. Furthermore, the environment is moisture laden with PW values around 2.0 inches. Taking all this into account, showers and thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage as the boundary approaches and then moves into the region. Any stronger storms will likely have the potential to produce torrential downpours and gusty winds. WPC has our region in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Also, SPC has the area in a Marginal Risk for SVR storms. The main threat being damaging wind gusts. This is highlighted in the HWO. Friday, another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible as a stronger front approaches and then moves through the area at some point Friday night. Although, there is some timing issues with the frontal passage. With that said, once the front moves through it will then likely bring about some much needed relief from the heat and lower humidity levels. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 WPC honing in on east of Ontario which is what the euro has been advertising the last several runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: WPC honing in on east of Ontario which is what the euro has been advertising the last several runs.. Not exactly what we need. Fortunately, its just a model. Cloud cover is keeping a lid on things here this a.m. Mid 80s and high dewpoint but so far... #SizzleFail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Sun just emerged here, temps soaring in response. Hoping for some storms to fire up this afternoon here but lake breeze will probably cap my area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 10, 2021 Author Share Posted August 10, 2021 Winter analogs very early from ohweather So this year I'm playing with cool ENSO - moderate La Ninas, and looking (if possible) for ones with an easterly QBO, a negative IOD and a warm west Pac. Also, the lower frequency forcing this summer so far has been most favored over the western Pacific. It's an interesting set of analogs, with years like 74-75, 00-01, 05-06, 12-13 and 17-18 showing up in there, but also a disaster like 11-12 hitting many of those too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 27 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Winter analogs very early from ohweather So this year I'm playing with cool ENSO - moderate La Ninas, and looking (if possible) for ones with an easterly QBO, a negative IOD and a warm west Pac. Also, the lower frequency forcing this summer so far has been most favored over the western Pacific. It's an interesting set of analogs, with years like 74-75, 00-01, 05-06, 12-13 and 17-18 showing up in there, but also a disaster like 11-12 hitting many of those too. I'm mentally preparing for a hat trick of 3 subpar winters in a row. Actually, subpar would be under par, which is good in golf. Wonder why it's a common expression to convey disappointment. Random thought as I gleefully await the Sizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Solid overcast and a steady SSW breeze keeping it relatively pleasant here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Cloud cover keeping the temps at bay for the time being, we did hit 87° earlier but back down to 83°.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 First batch of showers moving through.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 The main forecast concern is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms late this afternoon through early evening. Model guidance is not in good agreement with most mesoscale guidance generally more aggressive developing convection than the lower resolution guidance is today. Increasingly unstable this afternoon with ML CAPEs 1500-2000 J/Kg developing by late afternoon. There also be ample wind shear in place to support organized convection, with 700 mb winds increasing to 35-40 kts along with some directional shear this afternoon and early evening. Expect storms to start developing across Western New York this afternoon then expand in coverage, potentially developing into a line as the activity moves eastward across the area through around 9 p.m. Gusty winds would be the primary severe weather threat. There`s also a secondary threat of locally heavy rainfall and flooding today. Storms will be moving which could mitigate this risk some, but with the 12Z Buffalo sounding showing a precipitable water values of 1.84 inches locally heavy downpours are also a concern. Otherwise, today will be another hot day with heat index values rising into the 90s. Showers and storms may keep high temperatures cooler in some spots so it`s possible some areas may not quite hit the heat advisory criteria this afternoon. Even so, it will be hot and humid and at least very close to heat advisory criteria, with no changes in the headlines planned for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 5 hours ago, Syrmax said: Not exactly what we need. Fortunately, its just a model. Cloud cover is keeping a lid on things here this a.m. Mid 80s and high dewpoint but so far... #SizzleFail Syracuse, per usual, still managing to be hotter than every other city in New York state today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Warm humid yes. Heat wave no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Severe thunderstorm warning issued.. Picked up around 3/4" liquid so far, frequent lightning and some loud ass thunder lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 WoW… was not expecting that this morning. Lots of wind damage around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Neighbor had tree completely uprooted and fell directly onto their brand new Audi Q8. Branches down everywhere. What a storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Nice disco from BUF on the storms this morning… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Chase Mode activated! SPC added tornado risk for this afternoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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