wolfie09 Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 Well we clearly need a -nao lol Overall not terrible.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 Could be a decent contrast wrt to thermal profile tomorrow afternoon as a CF pushes south..High temps would come early with a slow cooling trend during the afternoon, according to the NAM.. " Main upper trough sharpens a bit Tuesday into Tuesday night as a potent shortwave dives southeast down the back side of the trough. An associated surface cold front will push into the region on Tuesday as well." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 9:49am AFD from BUF… Some mesoscale guidance shows a few showers across the Southern Tier and in Niagara County(north of the lake breeze) but 12Z Buffalo sounding shows dry air in place and a cap at around 650mb so it will be a struggle for any convection to get going. yup… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 A cold front will drop across the region on Tuesday, with most model guidance showing at least some precipitation with this frontal passage. Timing is a bit early to take advantage of diurnally driven instability, which will be limited since cloud cover will move in ahead of the front. However most of the morning will be rainfree which will allow some instability to develop. Additionally, there will be a fair amount of mid-level wind shear with 700 mb winds increasing to 45 kts. This could support some stronger storms with both gusty winds and hail possible. SPC introduced a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for most of our area. The time for the greatest risk would roughly be between 2 p.m. and 9 p.m. on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 Lake enhancement? Now we're talking lol The added convergence and increase in moisture will keep the likelihood of showers and storms Thursday night. Cool northwest flow will filter into the region with 850mb temperatures falling to +6C by Friday morning. Daytime heating and steepening low- level lapse rates will allow for some showers to form. Lake enhancement might also increase shower chances through Friday afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 Made it up to 84° Imby, 4th 80° day of the month... Decided to take a stroll and cool down, dropped about 8° on my 4 mile journey to Ontario..lol You can see nine mile point nuclear plant off in the distance in Oswego NY.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 10 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Well we clearly need a -nao lol Overall not terrible.. The avg isn't terrible for us but...look like very binary outcomes hinging on NAO state for winter. Ugh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 27, 2021 Author Share Posted July 27, 2021 June was a good pool month but July has been pretty terrible, today was nice. I wish the cool weather was coming 2nd half of August when I'm away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Looks like summer is pretty much over for us. Average temperature is starting to go down soon and we are starting to lose daylight faster now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Anyone else seen this from History Channel? Thought it was really good. Told my kids were watching something “educational” and this was my pick tonight. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: June was a good pool month but July has been pretty terrible, today was nice. I wish the cool weather was coming 2nd half of August when I'm away. Today was the best summer day we’ve had since July 4th. Finishing up a Wednesday-Wednesday vacation week and can’t complain the weather has been pretty close to perfect. Little cooler first couple days but I’m not a huge hot and humid fan and then good pool days past 2 days. Still a whole month of summer weather left! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 27, 2021 Author Share Posted July 27, 2021 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Ok… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 9 hours ago, brentrich said: Looks like summer is pretty much over for us. Average temperature is starting to go down soon and we are starting to lose daylight faster now. While I find August a reliable summer month, July is the main one in most of Canada. August is mostly deep summer for only Southern Ontario, Nova Scotia, BC The rest of Canada starts experiencing what I typically associate with September, especially mid-late August. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Looks like the front arrives around 2pm which is probably why the majority of guidance keeps storms to my south in the warm sector.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 27, 2021 Author Share Posted July 27, 2021 2 hours ago, mississaugasnow said: While I find August a reliable summer month, July is the main one in most of Canada. August is mostly deep summer for only Southern Ontario, Nova Scotia, BC The rest of Canada starts experiencing what I typically associate with September, especially mid-late August. August and September have been much warmer than average here. Usually those 2 months are warmer than June/July, at least the last few years. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from midday through early this evening. The severe weather risk is expected to be greatest with the first round of thunderstorms from about noon through 4pm. A few storms may produce damaging winds, with a lower risk of isolated large hail and heavy rainfall. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 It’s coming!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Watch issued until 6pm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Just had a nice breezy storm roll through - as I was finishing mowing. Nothing bad, but could see the winds off the deck really moving. Could see 60+ gusts today with the stronger cells. Not convinced were gonna warm up enough before this 2nd line gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: It’s coming!!! Fizzeled right out not even any lightning. Light shower. Weak sauce. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Not expecting much severe here but we do have a couple of moderate showers heading this way.. Should give me the 0.02" I need for 10" on the month lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 We hit 80° today which was a couple degrees warmer than forecasted but already down 10° with clouds and showers moving in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 23 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Fizzeled right out not even any lightning. Light shower. Weak sauce. Freaking lake breeze holding strong yet again today…. Storms were trying but once they hit that shadow they got shredded… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 50 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Freaking lake breeze holding strong yet again today…. Storms were trying but once they hit that shadow they got shredded… Yup, look what happens to the line once it gets away from LO... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BUF-N0Q-1-24 On one hand, it's nice to live in an area that doesn't get lots of severe weather, but on the other, it would be more 'fun' if we did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Yup, good stuff heading towards syracuse.. Just some light steady rain here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Raining pretty good here right now but the rain is coming straight down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 From BUF AFD… An outflow boundary from convection which passed to the north pushed across the Niagara Frontier, roughly to I-90 from Buffalo to Rochester. This helped weaken convection with the initial line, however mesoscale guidance shows a secondary line of storms developing along this boundary this afternoon. With wind shear still in place, there could be a second round of strong to severe storms along and to the south of this boundary. How strong depends in large part how much destabilization occurs behind this initial outflow during this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect for the cwa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Finally popped the warning for that one. Looks like some strong winds building in that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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