Syrmax Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 34 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Pouring out right now, I had to zoom to 800% just to see it lol Same here...pouring rain from brief shower. I can see blue sky nearby. When did I move to Florida? 5.66" rain for July as of this a.m. and we've had a couple tenths so far today. Guessing we'll be at 6" by tomorrow... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Sizzle Sizzlercuse. Forecasted high of 82...up to 84 with several warming hours to go. Should hit the normal 5 above forecast soon. Perhaps their sensor is wrong, as most wunderground sites around it are upper 70s to lower 80s. I wonder where it is located at their airport. Mid 70s here temporarily as we just had rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Yeah turned into a nice afternoon, mid-upper 70s, plenty of sun, DPs dropping in the 60s, west wind with a little breeze.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 I was wondering the same Matt, always seems the airport is the"hot spot", not always but more times than not.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah turned into a nice afternoon, mid-upper 70s, plenty of sun, DPs dropping in the 60s, west wind with a little breeze.. Is the front thru? Are the days of rain over? I have golf this eve so hoping it clears out in Oswego County at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 We should be good for a couple days lol Thursday night through Saturday may be a different story, depends what guidance is correct.. Euro leads the pack with rain amounts the last couple runs.. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms late Thursday and Thursday night. The primary threat is damaging wind gusts. Locally heavy rainfall may cause localized flooding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I was wondering the same Matt, always seems the airport is the"hot spot", not always but more times than not.. Thanks for the response. Even to its southeast where there hasn't been rain, it's 4 to 5 degrees "cooler." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 I have friends visiting starting tomorrow and we were going to try and go to Niagara Falls Friday pm/evening. This summer, I don't think there's any day to wait for a "dry day." Just have to expect raindrops and wok around it to get anything done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Training storms setting up along lake breeze boundary over southern Niagara County. Could be big time flood event if storms keep training along that boundary all afternoon. Setup much like Grand Island flood event last week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 14, 2021 Author Share Posted July 14, 2021 As long as it doesn't rain Friday 7-10 pm I'm fine going to first MLB game in Buffalo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Nice man!! I was hoping to go to the previous Yankees series in buffalo but couldn't go, now it might be to late as the jays may be back in Toronto by the end of the month..They play one more time, last series of the year.. Buffalo came out in support of the Yankees, probably about 80% even though they were the road team lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 14, 2021 Author Share Posted July 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Nice man!! I was hoping to go to the previous Yankees series in buffalo but couldn't go, now it might be to late as the jays may be back in Toronto by the end of the month..They play one more time, last series of the year.. Buffalo came out in support of the Yankees, probably about 80% even though they were the road team lol I'm a Yankees fan too but the prices of those games were insane. I got 6 tickets in a row for $40 each on a Friday night, going with some of my family. Can't beat a MLB game under the lights. This is once in a lifetime event for Buffalo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 2 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Training storms setting up along lake breeze boundary over southern Niagara County. Could be big time flood event if storms keep training along that boundary all afternoon. Setup much like Grand Island flood event last week. I was under said deluge…if Syrmax and Wolfie are channeling Florida for their showers then I’m going full Amazon for these cells…dumped over 2” in about 90 minutes. From dry to oh look a floating car… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'm a Yankees fan too but the prices of those games were insane. I got 6 tickets in a row for $40 each on a Friday night, going with some of my family. Can't beat a MLB game under the lights. This is once in a lifetime event for Buffalo. Went with my dad to the second game against the Rays last 2 weekends ago. Like you he’s a huge yanks fan but the thought of parting with 1/2 of my mortgage payment was the stopper. Taking the wife Saturday vs. the rangers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 We may make it through July without much"sizzle sizzle"(90s)..So far Zero on the month with 10 of the 14 days maxing out in the 70s.. Forecast after tomorrow (86°) is mainly upper 70s to around 80° aka average... Obviously we can thank the consistent showers and clouds for that lol CPC still showing neutral"ish" probabilities in the LR.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 Found this on social media.. "Shane Muckeys' photo of Nine Mile Point during last nights thunderstorm".. https://m.facebook.com/groups/1770384973265282/permalink/2740926392877797/?sfnsn=mo 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: We may make it through July without much"sizzle sizzle"(90s)..So far Zero on the month with 10 of the 14 days maxing out in the 70s.. Forecast after tomorrow (86°) is mainly upper 70s to around 80° aka average... Obviously we can thank the consistent showers and clouds for that lol CPC still showing neutral"ish" probabilities in the LR.. That's a good thing because we do not want to deal with heat waves and humidity. Good thing summer is dying slowly and make it harder to reach 90's by late August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 Baldwinsville was hit pretty hard last night. Branches and downed trees lined the streets today and downtown was flooded last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 12 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Found this on social media.. "Shane Muckeys' photo of Nine Mile Point during last nights thunderstorm".. https://m.facebook.com/groups/1770384973265282/permalink/2740926392877797/?sfnsn=mo That bolt looks like it was right into my office window from when i used to work there. That seemed like a nightly thing though... caused by upper management sweating the load... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 Decent model consensus exists around the progression of a strongly positively-tilted short wave trough moving toward the area on Friday night that progressively closes off and slows its forward progression through the short term period. Further, the consensus favors this H5 low closing off somewhere near or just east of Lake Huron, placing our area squarely in a zone of increasing DPVA through the period. In conjunction with this, the right entrance region of the upper jet streak associated with the upper wave will generally become resident over the area, accentuating large scale forcing for ascent during the time. A resident frontal boundary will already be in place to focus low level convergence, however model solutions vary a bit on the northward placement of this boundary with the ECMWF being the northerly outlying solution. Regardless, with a slow-evolving upper level pattern, several convective waves look set to propagate down the frontal boundary, resulting in very high PoPs right through the short term period. There is some evidence in the guidance that the upper wave will start to progress eastward by Saturday night, which would start to edge drier air in from the north, allowing for lower end PoPs by the second half of the weekend over WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 As the upper trough from the weekend starts to kick eastward, the long wave pattern over North America looks to begin to evolve going into the new week. As the upper ridge over the western CONUS again builds to extraordinary heights, downstream troughing becomes a foregone conclusion. In fact, there is good agreement on the development of a Hudson Bay low by mid-week, which is really reminiscent of a wintertime pattern more than a summertime pattern. Regardless, this will introduce drier continental air to the mix over the area, allowing for far lower levels of humidity. However, with resident troughing, cold air aloft will be present, so peak heating showers inland from the lakes cannot be ruled out. The long wave pattern evolution will mean that temperatures in the extended will start a bit above normal, however as the upper low develops over Hudson Bay and troughing becomes established in the east, temperatures should bottom out below normal by midweek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 15, 2021 Author Share Posted July 15, 2021 53 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Decent model consensus exists around the progression of a strongly positively-tilted short wave trough moving toward the area on Friday night that progressively closes off and slows its forward progression through the short term period. Further, the consensus favors this H5 low closing off somewhere near or just east of Lake Huron, placing our area squarely in a zone of increasing DPVA through the period. In conjunction with this, the right entrance region of the upper jet streak associated with the upper wave will generally become resident over the area, accentuating large scale forcing for ascent during the time. A resident frontal boundary will already be in place to focus low level convergence, however model solutions vary a bit on the northward placement of this boundary with the ECMWF being the northerly outlying solution. Regardless, with a slow-evolving upper level pattern, several convective waves look set to propagate down the frontal boundary, resulting in very high PoPs right through the short term period. There is some evidence in the guidance that the upper wave will start to progress eastward by Saturday night, which would start to edge drier air in from the north, allowing for lower end PoPs by the second half of the weekend over WNY. Figures, right during my baseball game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 It's going to be close, heaviest precipitation may not arrived till overnight.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 Gfs12z has a wet Sat morning for WNY, wet afternoon for CNY fwiw.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 15, 2021 Author Share Posted July 15, 2021 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs12z has a wet Sat morning for WNY, wet afternoon for CNY fwiw.. Fri night looking okay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 On the GFS showers start to approach Friday evening, Ggem holds it off till Saturday morning so timing is still a bit off lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 Speaking of the Canadian and ukmet, both wet..Some rain records would definitely fall if not already lol Only gets worse after this with a series of waves dropping into the trough, so precipitation comes from the north instead of S/SW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 88 degrees in Sizzlercuse already. No doubt we will hit 90s yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 It's so strange to see an empty radar! haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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