BuffaloWeather Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 With lake breeze out of the West, we could get some low level rotation along the flanks of that line. Kind of excited for this as its been sunny here last few hours, all the ingredients are there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Current OBS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Current OBS 77 dew is that legit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Well according to my weather station yes lol But always some margin of error..The 2 nearest WU stations are 76° and 78°, kfzy 75°, ksyr 76°..So it's in the ball park lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 27 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: With lake breeze out of the West, we could get some low level rotation along the flanks of that line. Kind of excited for this as its been sunny here last few hours, all the ingredients are there. Down at the lakeshore now. Looking pretty ominous down the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Down at the lakeshore now. Looking pretty ominous down the lake. Just heard giant thunder near my house, some pop up cells ahead of line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 1 hour ago, CNY_WX said: Had a 5 minute downpour come through about a half an hour ago. Now another storm popped up just south of here. Hearing rumbles of thunder now. Yeah, you guys over the eastern part of the county have had more storms than over here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 3 smaller storms passed by, but only sprinkles. Thinking that line moving NE is where the action will be for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Warning issued for this cell.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Main concern for this evening will be developing severe weather. There are several areas of focus... from west to east: 1) A line from Eastern Lake Erie SSE to NW PA will affect much of WNY this eve. Timing for this is now through 6PM for the Southern Tier along the PA border, and roughly 6-8PM for Metro BUF and surrounding areas (Southtowns first, Northtowns last). The line has weakened a little over the past hour, but should restrengthen, particularly on its south side, as it moves NE into the Southern Tier and Upper Genesee Valley. 2) Much of the Genesee Valley will see the above noted line move through a little later, roughly 7-9PM. There`s a possibility that additional convection may form ahead of line, which reduces confidence in timing a little. 3) The biggest concern is E/SE of Lake Ontario, where the best shear, both speed and directional, buoyancy, and boundaries are found. Expect a variety of discrete cells through early this evening, followed possibly by a line later this evening. Within the warm sector, we have shear of 30 kts west to 45kts east and MLCAPE between 1500-2000J/kg. Given continual high wbzero heights 13+kft per 18z BUF sounding and very high PWATS toward 2 inches, main severe hazard will be damaging wind gusts. Severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for our entire area, except St. Lawrence River, through 11 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 These storms are definitely more intense than usual for around here. This is very deep convection. I watched several storms out my window at work smack right into the tropopause and flatten out several times…absolutely beautiful. One of my favorite things to watch. And the updrafts had the sharpest most crisp edges…looking like cauliflower, haha. Anyway, I’m home now and cells just popped over me and to my west and put out a ton of lightning. Huge CG’s! Loudest thunder I’ve heard in awhile. Hoping that more organized area can tap into our instability before it wanes. We don’t get days like this often up here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Here's 2 discreet cells flattening out my kitchen window. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Pretty much run of the mill T-storms here, little bit of thunder and lightning, rain fall rates decent but not overly impressive..We picked up another 0.21" since this morning, 0.47" on the day... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Not much going action on the kbgm radar.. Time to watch the stuff in W/C PA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Some more activity has formed in OH and western end of Erie.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 I have a pretty decent time lapse of these two cells that have hit the tropopause and flattened out. You can just see the anvil and mammatus on a storm up over Webster (front left side which is North). The other storm (bottom right) was over Farmington, looking east/southeast 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 25 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Not much going action on the kbgm radar.. Time to watch the stuff in W/C PA.. Have to give BGM office props. We are their northeastern corner county, they could have easily gone severe watch over the whole CWA but they left us out and the storms skirted our western border and hit a wall. That's some precision forecasting! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Good storms today but nothing really exciting… anyone catch anything down along the lake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Western Monroe cty. Really getting hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, vortmax said: Western Monroe cty. Really getting hammered. I’m out right now! Just torrential rain so far. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Weak sauce storms in Derby. Most of the storms went by to my north. One last chance over W/C Lake Erie that should arrive between 9-10 but could wane quite a bit before it gets here as we lose the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Going to be interesting to see how the rest of this evening unfolds.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 FWIW… HRRR has another area of storms firing up overnight and hanging over WNY from 2am-6am -ish… IWRC also has Lake Erie highlighted for an elevated waterspout risk early tomorrow… NWS doesn’t really seem interested… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Pretty good wind gusts caught on camera up in Niagara County! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Trip Summary: incredibly intense rains, truly blinding. Some definite wet microburst* type gusts at times. Few small limbs down. Couple close lightning strikes, a handful of pea size hail, and some flooded roads. Not too shabby at all. *Edit - I should have said rain loaded downdrafts because I didnt see any real damage. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: 77 dew is that legit? Feels like it here. DP has to be mid 70s. Dripping wet doing anything outside. Feels like Florida here in Sizzletown. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 14, 2021 Author Share Posted July 14, 2021 I chased along the lake trying to find the best clouds to fly my drone in. Finally got some amazing clouds and then the sky opened up. Drone got a little wet, but was able to save it just in time lol. Quick video in Lackawanna. Some decent winds/rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 I hit a dp of 76 just before the storms rolled through. Great day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 14, 2021 Author Share Posted July 14, 2021 Got this great picture with my iphone though. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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