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Upstate/Eastern New York


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Main concern for this evening will be developing severe weather.
There are several areas of focus... from west to east:

1) A line from Eastern Lake Erie SSE to NW PA will affect much
of WNY this eve. Timing for this is now through 6PM for the
Southern Tier along the PA border, and roughly 6-8PM for Metro
BUF and surrounding areas (Southtowns first, Northtowns last).
The line has weakened a little over the past hour, but should
restrengthen, particularly on its south side, as it moves NE
into the Southern Tier and Upper Genesee Valley.

2) Much of the Genesee Valley will see the above noted line move
through a little later, roughly 7-9PM. There`s a possibility
that additional convection may form ahead of line, which reduces
confidence in timing a little.

3) The biggest concern is E/SE of Lake Ontario, where the best
shear, both speed and directional, buoyancy, and boundaries are
found. Expect a variety of discrete cells through early this
evening, followed possibly by a line later this evening.

Within the warm sector, we have shear of 30 kts west to 45kts
east and MLCAPE between 1500-2000J/kg.  Given continual high
wbzero heights 13+kft per 18z BUF sounding and very high PWATS
toward 2 inches, main severe hazard will be damaging wind gusts.
Severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for our entire area,
except St. Lawrence River, through 11 PM.
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These storms are definitely more intense than usual for around here. This is very deep convection. I watched several storms out my window at work smack right into the tropopause and flatten out several times…absolutely beautiful. One of my favorite things to watch. And the updrafts had the sharpest most crisp edges…looking like cauliflower, haha. Anyway, I’m home now and cells just popped over me and to my west and put out a ton of lightning. Huge CG’s!  Loudest thunder I’ve heard in awhile.  Hoping that more organized area can tap into our instability before it wanes.  We don’t get days like this often up here. 

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I have a pretty decent time lapse of these two cells that have hit the tropopause and flattened out.  You can just see the anvil and mammatus on a storm up over Webster (front left side which is North).  The other storm (bottom right) was over Farmington, looking east/southeast  

FC7CDCA3-E3FF-48E7-A96F-1098FE21F0DA.thumb.jpeg.4cab08ed8b26c64c42134598ea350199.jpeg

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25 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Not much going action on the kbgm radar.. Time to watch the stuff in W/C PA..

WUNIDS_map - 2021-07-13T181523.469.gif

Have to give BGM office props.

We are their northeastern corner county, they could have easily gone severe watch over the whole CWA but they left us out and the storms skirted our western border and hit a wall.

That's some precision forecasting!

 

 

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Trip Summary: incredibly intense rains, truly blinding. Some definite wet microburst* type gusts at times.  Few small limbs down. Couple close lightning strikes, a handful of pea size hail, and some flooded roads.  Not too shabby at all. 
 

*Edit - I should have said rain loaded downdrafts because I didnt see any real damage.

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