BuffaloWeather Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 Some intense storms on 3km 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 HRRR decent too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Timing pushed back a bit? Was looking like a midday to afternoon event for WNY now more like an evening timeframe? Might tend to better chance for some severe storms vs just the heavy downpours… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 84 w/77 Td here. 94 hx... Soupy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 My phone instantly fogged up when I came out this morning lol 83° here with a DP of 74° and RF of 91°.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 18 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Timing pushed back a bit? Was looking like a midday to afternoon event for WNY now more like an evening timeframe? Might tend to better chance for some severe storms vs just the heavy downpours… Getting sunshine here. Prime conditions this afternoon for some good stuff away from lake breeze. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Otherwise, appears primary period of convection will form by mid afternoon ahead of shortwave/stronger moisture transport lifting in from Ohio. This forcing will combine with lake breezes and start to tap into MLCAPE up to 2000 j/kg and effective shear up to 30 kts if not more southeast/east of Lake Ontario to support developing clusters of thunderstorms. Southeast Lake Ontario region and WNY will see storms first, but all areas will eventually see likely thunderstorms 21z-02z. Given continual high wbzero heights 13kft and very high PWATS toward 2 inches, main severe hazard will be damaging wind gusts. Torrential downpours expected too, but storms will be moving more so than last couple days. Thus, main flooding potential will be if storms train resulting in multiple episodes of heavy rain at one spot. Considered flash flood watch east of Lake Ontario where majority of high res guidance indicates heaviest rain occurs closer to warm front into this evening, but since those ares didn`t see widespread heavy rain last night (few spots saw 0.60-1.00) plan is to handle flash flooding hazard with warnings if needed. Majority of thunderstorm activity wanes mid evening onward, first over WNY then by late evening east of Lake Ontario. SPC continues to highlight majority of forecast area in a slight risk/scattered severe convection and WPC continues to highlight much of area in slight risk of excessive rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1223 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021 The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Oneida County in central New York... Northwestern Madison County in central New York... * Until 115 PM EDT. * At 1221 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Verona Beach, or near Oneida, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damage to roofs, siding, and trees possible. * Locations impacted include... Rome, Oneida, Lee, Verona, Vienna, Canastota, Floyd, Oriskany, Sylvan Beach and Wampsville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 NWS is reporting possible rotation in that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 Should be severe tstorm watch issued for all of NY soon. Atmosphere is primed with perfect timing of the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Radar starting to look like orvilles extra butter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: Radar starting to look like orvilles extra butter. Individual cells popping up all over with the lift coming in from the west. Has that tornadic look potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 85/72 at KBUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Some tiny pop ups here, raining and mostly sunny lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 375 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 135 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2021 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-023-029-037-043-045-049-051-053- 055-063-065-067-069-073-075-097-099-101-107-109-117-121-123- 140300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0375.210713T1735Z-210714T0300Z/ NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY BROOME CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA CHAUTAUQUA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND ERIE GENESEE HERKIMER JEFFERSON LEWIS LIVINGSTON MADISON MONROE NIAGARA ONEIDA ONONDAGA ONTARIO ORLEANS OSWEGO SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE WYOMING YATES 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop across Pennsylvania and New York into the afternoon and early evening. The stronger storms will become capable of producing locally strong to damaging wind gusts and possibly some hail. A tornado or two also cannot be ruled out. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Syracuse NY to 25 miles west of Hagerstown MD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 375 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 135 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2021 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-023-029-037-043-045-049-051-053- 055-063-065-067-069-073-075-097-099-101-107-109-117-121-123- 140300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0375.210713T1735Z-210714T0300Z/ NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY BROOME CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA CHAUTAUQUA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND ERIE GENESEE HERKIMER JEFFERSON LEWIS LIVINGSTON MADISON MONROE NIAGARA ONEIDA ONONDAGA ONTARIO ORLEANS OSWEGO SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE WYOMING YATES easy call ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ERIE AND SOUTH CENTRAL NIAGARA COUNTIES... At 127 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Small Boat Harbor, or over Lackawanna, moving northeast at 20 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 This would cause some issues lol Not that you can trust the Hrrr though..It will be different next run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Hotter in Sizzlercuse than much of the deep south again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 I don't understand how they determine the difference between a "strong" thunderstorm and a "severe" one. Seems like the special weather statements could just be a warning instead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Starting to sizzle sizzle here, 86/76, RF of 95°.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Some current radars.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Looks like we just miss out here in Otsego County and with all the rain and storms we have had lately I'm OK with it. Enjoy everyone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 That stuff North of Pittsburgh has my eye. Probably around 5-6 or so in WNY? Full sunshine right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Wow. Radar and air are definitely Florida-like today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Had a 5 minute downpour come through about a half an hour ago. Now another storm popped up just south of here. Hearing rumbles of thunder now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 Storms strengthening as they head NE, should get around the lake breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 375, with damaging winds the main threat. DISCUSSION...Regional satellite/radar depicts a few isolated storms over portions of southern New York and vicinity. Updrafts have largely been transient thus far, likely due to modest mid-level lapse rates amid abundant shear. However, recent scans/imagery suggest the intensity of these storms may be increasing somewhat as low-level lapse rates over the region remain supportive for convective development amid a weak cap. Farther west, a cluster of severe storms has emerged across portions of western Pennsylvania, with several damaging wind reports. This band of convection appears to be associated with a mid-level short-wave evident at 700 mb. Short-term convection-allowing models suggest these storms should continue moving northeast into western portions of the watch area across northwest Pennsylvania and southwestern New York. Additional storm development is possible along the southern flank of the line as the mid-level wave and associated ascent progresses through the region for the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Damaging winds remain the primary hazard, but severe hail and a tornado or two are possible, particularly with any discrete/supercell modes that may emerge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 375, with damaging winds the main threat. DISCUSSION...Regional satellite/radar depicts a few isolated storms over portions of southern New York and vicinity. Updrafts have largely been transient thus far, likely due to modest mid-level lapse rates amid abundant shear. However, recent scans/imagery suggest the intensity of these storms may be increasing somewhat as low-level lapse rates over the region remain supportive for convective development amid a weak cap. Farther west, a cluster of severe storms has emerged across portions of western Pennsylvania, with several damaging wind reports. This band of convection appears to be associated with a mid-level short-wave evident at 700 mb. Short-term convection-allowing models suggest these storms should continue moving northeast into western portions of the watch area across northwest Pennsylvania and southwestern New York. Additional storm development is possible along the southern flank of the line as the mid-level wave and associated ascent progresses through the region for the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Damaging winds remain the primary hazard, but severe hail and a tornado or two are possible, particularly with any discrete/supercell modes that may emerge. good stuff, I'm taking my drone out over the lake if we can get a good shelf cloud. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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