wolfie09 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 GFS has been fairly consistent on a stronger band forming this evening somewhere between Kroc and KART or surrounding areas.. Guess we'll see how good it is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 8, 2021 Author Share Posted July 8, 2021 16 hours ago, mississaugasnow said: went from drought to non-stop rain and clouds. It really did, sad times. Save the nasty weather for fall/winter please! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Hrw Fv3 has 5" at Kroc lol Going to be more hit or miss than widespread.. 5” at kROC with .1” in Hornell, lol. This is a complete now cast event. Going to be wild gradients with this setup. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 A warm front draped across western New York early this morning will be pushed northward during the course of the day courtesy of a surface wave over Lower Michigan. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase rapidly in the coming hours with PWAT values of 1.75 to 2 inches supporting the likelihood for some heavy rain. Most areas will pick up at least a half inch of needed rainfall, although localized 1 to 2 inch amounts will be possible within the track of better organized convection. As the forcing for the widespread convection moves east and marginally drier air overspreads the region tonight...shower and thunderstorm coverage will diminish from west to east. While the passage of a cool front will maintain the chance for some showers on Friday...the majority of the day/region will be rain free. The highest potential for any showers Friday will be east of Lake Ontario and across the Southern Tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 I hope kROC can duck and dodge like they have been, I've got softball tonight and have been itching to play this week. Current radar trends actually give me a sliver of hope that we could somehow slither out of this without much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 12 hours ago, Syrmax said: I heard some thunder also, but not that much. Hopefully this bit of rain tonight sets us up for a big hot steamer tomorrow! Well, there you go....while pretty much every where else in New York state is currently in the lower to mid 70s (even some 60s) Syracuse shoots right up to 80 degrees and is warmest in the state (outside of NYC). Every...single....day.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Don't feel bad we hit 80° as well lol Forecast high was 74° but the sun came out. Clouds starting to roll back in and drop temps, getting a bit breezy.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Don't feel bad we hit 80° as well lol Forecast high was 74° but the sun came out. Clouds starting to roll back in and drop temps, getting a bit breezy.. You joined the club? lol It's unreal how quickly this area warms up. I really do add 5 degrees onto whatever the forecasted high is. The days getting shorter is the first reminder we are on the way towards my favorite season... FALL! lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: You joined the club? lol It's unreal how quickly this area warms up. I really do add 5 degrees onto whatever the forecasted high is. The days getting shorter is the first reminder we are on the way towards my favorite season... FALL! lol @wolfie09 What are you "weenie"ing about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Fall 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 8, 2021 Author Share Posted July 8, 2021 Quite the storm More on last night's storms (7/7/2021): This annotated closeup image shows a peak wind* of 92 knots (102 mph) measured about 500 feet above the ground level at 9:53 PM EDT, near Campville, NY. Winds at ground and treetop level were likely a little weaker, but this lends credence to the unofficial 92 mph report received from south of Apalachin. * (Technically, the radar measures just the component of the wind towards or away from the radar. But since the wind direction in this case was SW to NE and pretty much spot-on directly towards the radar, actual wind velocities were likely not too much higher than indicated). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 With the ground being as wet as it is you would think the effects of solar heating would be somewhat muted. I think as long as the heat dome is entrenched in the west we will be in a damp pattern here in the east. Too bad we can’t send some of this moisture out where it is needed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: With the ground being as wet as it is you would think the effects of solar heating would be somewhat muted. I think as long as the heat dome is entrenched in the west we will be in a damp pattern here in the east. Too bad we can’t send some of this moisture out where it is needed. Yeah, if the ground was dry, Syracuse would be reaching 98 every other day instead of 92. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Couple tropical downpours here already so I’ll stop my whining about how dry it’s been. Long overdue here though. Lake shadow isn’t invincible after all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 51 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Well, there you go....while pretty much every where else in New York state is currently in the lower to mid 70s (even some 60s) Syracuse shoots right up to 80 degrees and is warmest in the state (outside of NYC). Every...single....day.... At what point will you stop being surprised that the largest urban area (at a very low local elevation) will be the hottest location within 100 miles...Every. Single. Day. This should not be surprising or even interesting at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: At what point will you stop being surprised that the largest urban area (at a very low local elevation) will be the hottest location within 100 miles...Every. Single. Day. This should not be surprising or even interesting at this point. Fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Wow, Southern Ontario and into the North Country sure has been getting some storms lately! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Some impressive velocities showing up over Amherst with that severe thunderstorm right now. Nearly 70mph. Wanna hear from some posters up that way! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 8, 2021 Author Share Posted July 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Some impressive velocities showing up over Amherst with that severe thunderstorm right now. Nearly 70mph. Wanna hear from some posters up that way! good storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 8, 2021 Author Share Posted July 8, 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN ERIE AND SOUTHERN NIAGARA COUNTIES... At 349 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Kenmore, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 3k throwing out some 4"-5" amounts lol Majority coming between 6-9 pm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 24 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: good storm I'm predicting this will become non-severe by the time it gets Wayne Cty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 STW issued.. The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... South central Jefferson County in central New York... Southwestern Lewis County in central New York... Oswego County in central New York... * Until 515 PM EDT.. * At 426 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Fulton, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Oswego, Fulton, Sandy Island Beach State Park, Pulaski, Central Square, Redfield, Selkirk Shores State Park, Mexico Point State Park, Nine Mile Point and Southwick Beach State Park. This includes Interstate 81 between exits 32 and 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 As things stand with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), neutral conditions are currently present in the tropical Pacific and favored to last through the North American summer and into the fall. But forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have issued a La Niña Watch, which means they see La Niña likely emerging (~55%) during the September-November period and lasting through winter. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/july-2021-enso-update-la-niña-watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... East Central Monroe County in western New York... Northwestern Wayne County in western New York... * Until 845 PM EDT. * At 453 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Rochester, Greece, Irondequoit, Webster, Brighton, Gates-North Gates, Charlotte, Rochester General Hospital, Strong Memorial Hospital, Union Hill and Rochester International Airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Pouring out right now as I sit on the southern end of this stronger band.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 We picked up 1.60" of rain this afternoon from a few rounds of heavy rain, 3.44" in the first 8 days of the month, so I don't have much to complain about.. 3k wants to develop some more T-storms late this evening..Not sure about that yet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 9, 2021 Author Share Posted July 9, 2021 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: As things stand with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), neutral conditions are currently present in the tropical Pacific and favored to last through the North American summer and into the fall. But forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have issued a La Niña Watch, which means they see La Niña likely emerging (~55%) during the September-November period and lasting through winter. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/july-2021-enso-update-la-niña-watch Another below average winter coming if a moderate Nina again. I'll take a weak to neutral ENSO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 Oneida County sure has had its fair share of severe storms this summer. It looks like there was a possible tornado near Rome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 17 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: At what point will you stop being surprised that the largest urban area (at a very low local elevation) will be the hottest location within 100 miles...Every. Single. Day. This should not be surprising or even interesting at this point. Hancock field (KSYR) has their thermometer in jet exhaust plumes just to annoy *certain people* 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now