winter_rules Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 1 hour ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Nearly 6” in grand island now and storms are intensifying again right over them. That’s amazing and terrible. Just a fluke of bad luck, I assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 17 minutes ago, winter_rules said: That’s amazing and terrible. Just a fluke of bad luck, I assume. Just what happens when the lake breeze boundaries collide this time of year. A bit unusual with the trajectory, usually see a more west to east line from NF / Lewiston area out through Lockport. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 Posted a couple videos of the hail to my youtube. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Nam FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Looks like a nice storm taking aim at home…. Figures I’m not there for it…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Winter_Summary_2020-21 (1) (1).pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 No more rain please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 Going back to do the Dix range this Saturday. Plans got canceled last time so take two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Cool, damp, on and off showers so far today..(still muggy lol) Only 0.04" recorded so far, temp is 68° with a forecast high of 73°.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 This potential band tomorrow will be the real rain producer, whoever gets under probably receives a couple inches.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Thanks to this front and clouds temps "chilling" in the mid 60s, I'm sure we'll warm a little this afternoon especially if we see some sun.. Sizzlecuse still in the low 80s under SW flow.. Fulton in the low 70s under NW flow.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Oh my gosh...Syracuse kills me. 22 degrees warmer than Watertown and 26 degrees warmer than Fort Drum. 12 Degrees warmer than Fulton and 8 degrees warmer than Rome. Seriously, this place must sit above Hell. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Oh my gosh...Syracuse kills me. 22 degrees warmer than Watertown and 26 degrees warmer than Fort Drum. 12 Degrees warmer than Fulton and 8 degrees warmer than Rome. Seriously, this place must sit above Hell. In terms of climate it has the best of all worlds. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Cold front today returns as a warm front tomorrow, winds flip from NE to S/SW.. Given the clouds and showers surface temps shouldn't warm much but I'd imagine DPs will be on the rise.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Next 5 days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Next 5 days.. 4" of rain right where I'm hiking on Saturday, easy pass. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Couple tidbits from the afternoon Disco.. After this evening`s convection dies down, a break in the action will ensue until the approach of a stronger surface low and associated right entrance region of the upper jet for Thursday. Strong large scale ascent coupled with PWAT values up to near 2 inches feeding northward from the tropicals and modest instability will allow for what looks like several surges of rainfall across the area on Thursday. Widespread 1-2 inch amounts of rainfall seem likely with this system as it slides through the area on Thursday. A slow wind down to showers seems likely Thursday night as a trailing wave keeps some degree of synoptic ascent plaguing the area into Thursday night. The pattern will become more active again early next week as a mid level closed low evolves over the central US, forcing the frontal zone across the Ohio Valley back northward into the eastern Great Lakes. This will bring increasing rain chances early next week as humidity and instability move back into the region with increasing southwesterly return flow around high pressure anchored off the southeast coast. The GFS and subsequently the NBM looks too fast with the arrival of rain chances over the weekend, and our preference is to go with the slower ECMWF/GEM solution. With this in mind, a chance of showers will arrive in Western NY by Sunday afternoon, with a better chance of showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday night through Tuesday areawide as the approaching mid level closed low forces a low level boundary to stall near or over the eastern Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 26 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Couple tidbits from the afternoon Disco.. After this evening`s convection dies down, a break in the action will ensue until the approach of a stronger surface low and associated right entrance region of the upper jet for Thursday. Strong large scale ascent coupled with PWAT values up to near 2 inches feeding northward from the tropicals and modest instability will allow for what looks like several surges of rainfall across the area on Thursday. Widespread 1-2 inch amounts of rainfall seem likely with this system as it slides through the area on Thursday. A slow wind down to showers seems likely Thursday night as a trailing wave keeps some degree of synoptic ascent plaguing the area into Thursday night. The pattern will become more active again early next week as a mid level closed low evolves over the central US, forcing the frontal zone across the Ohio Valley back northward into the eastern Great Lakes. This will bring increasing rain chances early next week as humidity and instability move back into the region with increasing southwesterly return flow around high pressure anchored off the southeast coast. The GFS and subsequently the NBM looks too fast with the arrival of rain chances over the weekend, and our preference is to go with the slower ECMWF/GEM solution. With this in mind, a chance of showers will arrive in Western NY by Sunday afternoon, with a better chance of showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday night through Tuesday areawide as the approaching mid level closed low forces a low level boundary to stall near or over the eastern Great Lakes. went from drought to non-stop rain and clouds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Some decent storms/showers moving through CNY, actually seeing a few flashes of lightning and a little thunder.. Models don't have much here till tomorrow afternoon so not expecting much out of this batch.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 I was a bit surprised by this current thunderstorm. There's actually quite a bit of thunder. Just had a sharp flash and that deep crack of thunder. It must have hit very close by. I live on a hill above Baldwinsville and the radio tower is nearby ("higher" elevation here) so I wouldn't be surprised if it hit that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 35 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I was a bit surprised by this current thunderstorm. There's actually quite a bit of thunder. Just had a sharp flash and that deep crack of thunder. It must have hit very close by. I live on a hill above Baldwinsville and the radio tower is nearby ("higher" elevation here) so I wouldn't be surprised if it hit that. I heard some thunder also, but not that much. Hopefully this bit of rain tonight sets us up for a big hot steamer tomorrow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Hopefully this becomes a bit more organized later this morning, early afternoon lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Expected rainfall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 58 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Hopefully this becomes a bit more organized later this morning, early afternoon lol 12z nam seems to be dialing back the rain quite a bit in the first few frames already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 20 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: 12z nam seems to be dialing back the rain quite a bit in the first few frames already. Let’s see if the Amherst/Snyder rain shield holds up today. So far so good. Radar showing solid batch of rain sliding off to our west and another batch forming to our southeast that will miss. Was hoping for a meaty batch of moderate rain for at least a few hours but might have to settle for pop up quick hitters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Got a good chuckle out of last night's UK for kbuf lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Hrw Fv3 has 5" at Kroc lol Going to be more hit or miss than widespread.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 8, 2021 Author Share Posted July 8, 2021 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Got a good chuckle out of last night's UK for kbuf lol Toss farther than Josh Allens hail mary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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