vortmax Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Anyone think more storms will develop over the Wayne Cty area where clearing and heating is taking place? Or is there subsidence taking place because of the storms to the west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 GFS with a little cool down after the Monday/Tues torch.. CPC 6-10 day now has slight chance of below average temps.. GFS is up and down throughout the run.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Traveling through Steuben County right now. Area near Prattsburgh where it looks like the trees have been devoured by insects... Going through some downpours on the higher elevations of 86. The temp dropped to the 50s on the hills! Ahhh, nice to be out of the tropics of Sizzlercuse... Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Haha yeah they are still updating stuff..You earn badges now as well..I just wish they would of changed the max file size lol I wish they added a "Wow" Reaction on the little emoji bar. 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: As an avid plant lover, glad to see it looks like yours survived. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 My entire basement flooded 4” deep. Power was off for few hours during those training storms and sump pump shut off. Anyone have any advice to prevent that in the future? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 Another from today’s hail 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: I wish they added a "Wow" Reaction on the little emoji bar. As an avid plant lover, glad to see it looks like yours survived. My wife’s a vegan and obsessed with plants. They are everywhere in and outside our house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: My entire basement flooded 4” deep. Power was off for few hours during those training storms and sump pump shut off. Anyone have any advice to prevent that in the future? That sucks. Got to get a battery backup for it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: My entire basement flooded 4” deep. Power was off for few hours during those training storms and sump pump shut off. Anyone have any advice to prevent that in the future? As South said, a battery backup or we have a Liberty water - powered backup sump. No power needed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 13 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: My wife’s a vegan and obsessed with plants. They are everywhere in and outside our house. Plants are such a bother. Thinking of covering my 5 acres with concrete to create my own UHI sizzle. ;) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 12 hours ago, vortmax said: As South said, a battery backup or we have a Liberty water - powered backup sump. No power needed. Yeah I haven't looked but there much be DC powered sump pumps available. Would be more complicated depending on how you wanted to arrange the setup and space available, piping connections etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 19 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Am I the only one seeing a new format? Lol Must of updated it.. I don't remember this either.. What a Newb question. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 16 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks like you have a head start on seasonal "snowfall"! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 Ef1 tornado Washington DC.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 14 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: My entire basement flooded 4” deep. Power was off for few hours during those training storms and sump pump shut off. Anyone have any advice to prevent that in the future? If it’s in your budget I’d go with a whole home generator or Tesla power wall/solar. We have a generator and it’s extremely convenient. I plan on doing a power wall when we go solar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 Drought cancel here https://kamala.cod.edu/ny/latest.nous41.KBUF.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 GFS is pretty wet over the next couple weeks but when isn't it? Lol Most guidance has some decent shower activity next week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Drought cancel here https://kamala.cod.edu/ny/latest.nous41.KBUF.html With the way the radar looked yesterday I thought we’d see some bigger totals than that. I was sure someone got 4+” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 Still some decent showers going on in CNY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Still some decent showers going on in CNY.. It has been raining/misting for two straight days in eastern Lewis County. Hoping to see it move out soon and give us two nice days for the long weekend! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 Maxed out at 72° today, 70° yesterday, about 6-8 degrees below average.. Clouds and showers prevented us from dipping much below last night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 My favorite movie and one of the best scenes.. Happy 4th... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 13 hours ago, wolfie09 said: My favorite movie and one of the best scenes.. Happy 4th... Happy 4th indeed. Today was what I call the perfect summer day in my book. Mostly sunny, temps in the low 80s, no winds and dews under 60. Great afternoon swimming, vegging out on the patio, and lighting some fire works. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Plenty of opportunities for rain this week.. Quote The main upper level features of interest for today and tonight are 1) an upper level ridge currently over lower MI and 2) a shortwave trough over MN/WI. As the ridge moves in today, lower level warm air advection will continue across the region with capping preventing any daytime convection. The cap is already evident in morning AMDAR data at about 750mb, and is expected to lower with time to about 850mb due to WAA as the ridge moves overhead. So, while there will be abundant potential instability aloft, there just won`t be any way to get surface parcels to get above this cap, at least south of Lake Ontario where low levels are anticipated to be too dry for surface based convection. The cap may not be as pronounced east of the lake, but it should still be too dry for daytime convection. Therefore, the remaining focus for today (after morning valley fog) will be the borderline heat advisory scenario toward the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes. Models have trended downward with surface dewpoints over the past day or so (as noted with the above noted dry airmass in the lower levels with the WAA). With this in mind, will shy away from a heat advisory for now. For tonight, attention quickly turns to the above noted shortwave trough following the ridge. This feature is expected to move ESE and across Lake Ontario overnight, with an associated W-E oriented surface boundary moving south across the lake before it stalls somewhere over WNY late tonight. While there should be convection to the north of the lake this afternoon, there`s still a variety of scenarios for convection this evening/overnight, from nothing across all of WNY, to at least scattered convection south of Lake Ontario and more widespread convection east of the lake. With this in mind, there`s higher confidence for measurable precipitation and associated thunderstorms further east, probably around or after midnight, but confidence over the Niagara Frontier, Genesee Valley, and Western Finger lakes isn`t as high. The area with the least likely chance for any rainfall tonight is toward the Southern Tier being most displaced from the shortwave trough and stalling surface boundary. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A weakening cold front will drop south across Lake Ontario, stalling over the area with a west to east orientation. As a weak area of low pressure tracks northeast across the Central Great Lakes, it will start to push the front back north briefly as a warm front early Wednesday. There is still some timing issues with the guidance and when the front pushes back north. As the front stalls over the area tonight into Tuesday morning, showers with some thunderstorms are expected, especially east toward CNY. Areas south of the front will remain warmer. Daytime instability will increase south of the front, but doesn`t exactly line up with the better shear values further north and east. None the less, with some guidance suggesting a good amount of CAPE, and most likely over estimating into the 3,000+ J/kg range, the instability will be there for showers and thunderstorms. The stalling front and a weakening shortwave trough moving through, will be the primary area where showers and storms fire. There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms to our east, but at least some gusty winds will be possible with any of the storms, this as model guidance suggesting DCAPE values of around 750 J/kg. Temperatures will be warm once again for Tuesday with highs in the mid 80s to around 90. Tuesday night, there should be a downward trend in the showers and thunderstorms as the weakening shortwave tracks southeast of the area, and weak ridging briefly moves into the area. With the front over the region still, a few showers/storms over the area shouldn`t come as a surprise. Tuesday night, low temps will be in the mid to upper 60s south of Lake Ontario, and in the the low 60s for the North Country. Wednesday, the stalled front should move to the northern portion of the area by the morning, increasing instability across almost the entire area with daytime heating. Shear also looks a bit more favorable for the area, especially toward the eastern portion of the area, including the North Country. Another shortwave trough will move through the area, helping to provide the additional forcing for the development of thunderstorms. Almost the entire area is in a `Marginal Risk` (from SPC), and would not be surprised if a portion of the area is upgraded to a `Slight Risk`, especially the North Country. Current thinking for high temps on Wednesday will be in the low to mid 80s south of Lake Ontario, and in the mid to upper 70s for the North Country. Could see these temps being a few degrees warmer if the front moves even farther back north, but guidance is still a bit split on exactly how warm the 850H temps get. Wednesday night, the front will slowly sag back south over the area, and showers with some thunderstorms possible will increase in coverage. This will occur as a weak sfc low tracks northeast over the region form the Ohio Valley. There will also be a slight uptick in moisture on Wednesday night, as current TS Elsa moves northeast along the Atlantic seaboard. Temperatures Wednesday night will be in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Showers will continue into Thursday with the frontal boundary just to our south and the sfc low tracking northeast. A trough will also cross the area late Thursday into Friday, continuing the potential for showers. Brief ridging late Friday night into Saturday should provide for a mostly quiet period during this time. Another trough will track toward the Eastern Great Lakes starting Sunday, providing yet again another round of showers/rain for WNY and the North Country. Guidance is indicating a multi day time frame for these showers, through early next week. Temperatures during the long term will start out right around normal, and slowly warm to above normal by Saturday and Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 WPC weekly QPF as it stands now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 HWO .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. The combination of heat and increasing humidity levels will bring elevated heat index values with near advisory levels of 95F inland across the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region. Tonight, a cold front will approach and then move into the Lower Lakes with increasing chances for storms. The best chance to see a storm will be just south and east of Lake Ontario. A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms has been issued with the main threat damaging wind gusts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Combined heat and humidity will again push heat index values near advisory levels of 95F Tuesday across parts of the Lake Plains, Genesee Valley, and into Finger Lakes region. Additionally, a stalled frontal boundary in combination with daytime heating will lead to showers and thunderstorms across the region. A Slight Risk for a portion of the S. Tier into the western Finger Lakes has been issue for Tuesday with the potential for severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening with the main threat damaging wind gusts. Wednesday, another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible. SPC has place our area in a Marginal Risk for Severe storms with damaging winds as the main threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 5, 2021 Author Share Posted July 5, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Some decent storms heading towards the north country, 60% chance of showers/storms overnight, not sure about that yet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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