BuffaloWeather Posted July 1, 2021 Author Share Posted July 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I thought about going out west this year but the crowds and restrictions, esp at National Parks have turned me off of that. I'm thinking Greece at this point, for an adventure. I just visited 7 national parks in May in Utah/Arizona and there were no restrictions, had an incredible time. Also I don't go to touristy areas, I go hiking in the middle of the mountains and start at 4 am before everyone wakes up. Do I bring a gun or bear spray out into the wilderness of Montana? I saw a big black bear in Washington, but I know there are grizzly's up in Montana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 1, 2021 Author Share Posted July 1, 2021 Zion national park was pretty busy, but we got a 6 am shuttle and did angels landing and the narrows before it got really busy. Angels landing was scariest hike I've ever done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 https://bc.ctvnews.ca/lytton-fire-90-per-cent-of-b-c-village-has-burned-in-devastating-blaze-local-mp-says-1.5493293 Sad new from Lytton, BC. Just days after setting the Canadian all time high temperature record, 90% of the village has burned down. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Severe storm rolling in to DC...can watch it live here: https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/usa/washington-dc/the-white-house.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 CPC cutdown on the above average probabilities..(d6-10) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 The models have finally figured out what they want to do! After severe days of unacceptably wide model spread in the extended forecast, the 12z cycles today have really clustered by strongly, yielding higher than normal confidence in the overall long and short wave progression. As a result, we start the long term with a short wave ridging and abrupt warming traversing the area Monday before troughing becomes established over the northeastern CONUS. This results in the extended forecast starting out dry and way above normal on Monday with a rather quick transition toward more showery conditions and more normal temperatures thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 1, 2021 Author Share Posted July 1, 2021 I can easily predict the weather. It's going to be above normal for the rest of our lifetimes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Wpc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 57 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I can easily predict the weather. It's going to be above normal for the rest of our lifetimes. And it will never rain again in Rochester. It's pretty incredible. Remember last week we kept thinking someone was going to get inches of rain this week. I think I could have counted all the drops that have fallen in the last 10 days on 1 hand. It's like living in the damn desert... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Will it break through? First line got shredded on arrival let’s see what that second line can do. That’s a favorable path for severe storms here when they have are drifting in from the WNW… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: I can easily predict the weather. It's going to be above normal for the rest of our lifetimes. Well...my lifetime... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 The Utica area got slammed pretty good yesterday. 75 mph straight-line winds with damage all around the city. 1/2 inch sized hail as well. So obviously more wind damage than hail damage. They've also had flooding rains several days this week. Here in the Syracuse area, there was some flooding and power outages yesterday, but I don't think much wind damage. @DeltaT13, I'm shocked you guys haven't had any rain there. With all the activity firing up...Seems to be a very lackluster year in the precip. department for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 12 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Will it break through? First line got shredded on arrival let’s see what that second line can do. That’s a favorable path for severe storms here when they have are drifting in from the WNW… It's quickly falling apart over the Niagara Peninsula of Ontario.... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 We had an early high temp of 75ish around lunchtime but have steadily dropped throughout the afternoon, few spikes due to the sun trying to peak out lol Next couple days is forecasted upper 60s to around 70°.. Some "summer like" heat returns Monday and Tuesday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 22 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: It's quickly falling apart over the Niagara Peninsula of Ontario.... lol Yup… northern part is tearing up but that cell over the lake is building, Dunkirk to Silver Creek could be a good storm. Wouldn’t make it in time but would be a good shoreline intercept on that one. Expect to see some nice shelf pics as that rolls in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 A secondary frontal boundary will push into and across the Lower Great Lakes tonight while a longwave trough will push south across the entire region. This will support a chance for widespread showers, with the greatest coverage over far Western NY. Low temps tonight will be in the mid 50s to low 60s. Friday, the upper level trough slowly swings over and through western NY, then pulls east by late in the day. With the core of the coldest air aloft moving overhead, expect scattered to numerous showers with a few isolated rumbles of thunder. With H850T falling to +7C to +9C expect MaxT`s to peak in the upper 60s to low 70s During Friday night the core of the upper low will slooooowly meander its way eastward into eastern New York and Pennsylvania. While nocturnal stabilization should lead to a general decrease in convective coverage...the combination of the still-very close proximity of the low...a general upslope northerly flow...and contributions from the lakes should still maintain at least some scattered showers...along with fairly cloudy skies. Otherwise...we can expect comfortable overnight lows ranging from the mid 50s well inland to around 60 along the lakeshores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 There's definitely going to be some flooding with those training storms from the Herkimer area over to the Albany area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Another day of busted storms. Not a drop here. Both batches of rain just disappeared upon arrival…. The dry zone is very well defined over the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Check out the hail in Ontario earlier 2” deep! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Check out the hail in Ontario earlier 2” deep! Man, Ontario is getting all the good stuff lately... Hail, funnels, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Another day of busted storms. Not a drop here. Both batches of rain just disappeared upon arrival…. The dry zone is very well defined over the past few days. That lake shadow is a formidable foe to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 30 minutes ago, vortmax said: That lake shadow is a formidable foe to rain. It really is quite remarkable. And on the flip side it’s prolific at generating rain on either side from the converging air. On the positive side for us desert dwellers I suppose it won’t be long before all of Lake Erie gets up into the 70’s and the lake shadow fades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Looks some new storms have popped up to the west of Rochester. Maybe that's your chance. Looks like maybe a bit of a bow echo? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Check out the radar loop. That area over Niagara County how it drops in NW to SE then hits a wall on the escarpment and pulls back heading NE. New boundary line fired up north to south along eastern Erie county boarder and is picking up some intensity heading into the finger lakes. Had the single back building cells popping ahead of that line triggering the flash food warning. And then there’s my Lake Erie monster again. I gotta figure out what that blob is every night between 9-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 This is a really interesting area of convection and energy moving through. Seems nocturnally driven. I’m hoping for a good soak! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Didn’t check the gauge but decent soaking overnight. Nice looking storms down in Chautauqua currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Picked up 0.19" overnight, few boomers as well.. Pretty good rains just a few miles east, not sure if they make it here or not.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 SWS ...SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS LEWIS...JEFFERSON AND OSWEGO COUNTIES... A large area of slow moving showers and thunderstorms will persist across the Tug Hill and Black River Valley this morning. These storms will spread west into Mexico and Fulton through 9 am and Oswego around 10 am. These storms will produce heavy rainfall with amounts of one to two inches will be possible over the next few hours. This will result in ponding of water on roadways and in low lying areas. If traveling this morning, be prepared for reduced visibility due to heavy rainfall, and allow yourself extra time to reach your destination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Looks like two more days of 90s coming for Sizzlercuse early next week. We skip from 70s to 90s pretty normally it seems. That'll bring us up to, I think, 13 days over 90 already. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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