BuffaloWeather Posted June 23, 2021 Author Share Posted June 23, 2021 Looks like the rain is going farther west in latest model trends wolf? Should be clear this week in ADK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 Hard to say at this juncture.. I'd prepare for at least scattered showers but probably not a total washout.. Gfs 12z for example has on and off showers from Sunday into tues morning but really doesn't add up to a whole lot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 23 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Hard to say at this juncture.. I'd prepare for at least scattered showers but probably not a total washout.. Gfs 12z for example has on and off showers from Sunday into tues morning but really doesn't add up to a whole lot.. Showers and storms do return Thursday/Friday though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 On the other hand you have the Canadian which dumps 2"-6" over kbuf CWA, most of this in the Monday-wed time frame..Some scattered stuff over the weekend.. Still pretty far out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: On the other hand you have the Canadian which dumps 2"-6" over kbuf CWA, most of this in the Monday-wed time frame..Some scattered stuff over the weekend.. Still pretty far out.. Those kinds of totals would require a stalled, multi-wave situation. I don't see that happening - especially over such a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 Depends on the strength and positioning of the WAR.. Prevents it from moving much, actually some guidance has hinted at pushing the boundary back west.. Thenceforth, the forecast details will be heavily dictated by the position of the frontal boundary, which in turn will be influenced by the balance between a building ridge over the western Atlantic and multiple additional waves of low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes and southern Canada. At this point the medium range guidance remains at least somewhat at odds as to which of these features will have more influence, though there does seem to be at least some semblance of a trend toward the western Atlantic ridge eventually becoming more dominant over time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 Picture perfect day today, high of 67° so far, had an overnight low of 44°..Dew point and humidity in the upper 40s..It's going to be tough to say goodbye lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 A nearly stalled frontal boundary across the central Great Lakes on Friday will very slowly make its way east through the weekend. This is due to the flow aloft, with an upper level trough forecast to dig across the Upper Great Lakes. The result will be several waves of low pressure which will track along the nearly stalled boundary. These will remain to our west Friday and probably Friday night, which will likely keep the region rain-free. After this, there will be a persistent risk that a convectively driven wave will clip our area and bring a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. The best chances will be across northern and western portions of the cwa, however it`s important to note that there will be plenty of rain-free time between any waves that clip the area. The forecast leans on model consensus, since timing convectively driven waves this far off is uncertain. Otherwise, it will generally hot during the period, with high temperatures mainly in the 80s. It will become more humid with time, with dew points rising from the 50s on Friday to the 60s by Sunday as the boundary gets progressively closer. A persistent southerly breeze will result in downslope warming across the lake plains, where overnight lows will only be around 70s, and where the warmest daytime highs will be located. A holding pattern in the mid-level pattern will keep the forecast relatively similar from day to day for the first few days of the new work week. The negatively tilted mid-level trough spanning across the Upper Great Lakes to the Central Plains from earlier in the weekend will have subtly weakened and shifted to the east by Sunday night. The trough will then remain relatively in place through the first half of the week. Meanwhile, multiple waves will rotate through the overall trough which will support showers and afternoon thunderstorms each day, though it is important to note that there will be some dry periods from time to time. The best locations will remain across the northern and western portions of the CWA. Due to the uncertainty between the different model runs it is hard to pin point the exact timing and locations of convection and therefore the forecast resembles a consensus of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 GFS is pretty moist throughout the work week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 24, 2021 Author Share Posted June 24, 2021 Freezing up here in the 30s 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Freezing up here in the 30s 38° at my house this morning after 36° yesterday morning. Saw a little frost on a roof that must be in a prime radiational cooling area. I’m taking advantage of this nice sunny and cooler weather to replace the last part of my house roof this afternoon, tomorrow, and probably into Saturday. I also just got Sirius radio set up (Father’s Day gift) for the first time in +/-10 years! That will make it much more enjoyable! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 First potential rain is Saturday/Sat night but even that time period is up in the air.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: First potential rain is Saturday/Sat night but even that time period is up in the air.. Bermuda High FTW... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 GFS for Saturday, close call on wether we see any substantial rain.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 The majority of the near term forecast will be determined by the evolution of the MCS and subsequent remnant MCV that is currently advancing northeastward over western Lower Michigan. The current hi-res models, especially the FV3, have the convective complex well depicted, though a bit farther south than radar and satellite currently are verifying. Given the trajectory, this bring the MCS toward southern Lake Huron by the end of day today with convective activity rapidly dying around it by that time. The remnant vortex then should advance toward Ottawa overnight, leaving the Niagara Frontier and southern shore of Lake Ontario on the periphery of its rain shield. This yields a rather stark PoP gradient between central Lake Ontario and the Southern Tier with decidedly higher PoPs to the north. In fact, there may not be much shower activity that really manifests much south of I-90, however low end PoPs remain for that area especially Saturday morning as low-level moisture in convergent flow into the MCV will cross the area during that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 It won't be a complete wash out this week, maybe get grazed tomorrow, Thursday/Friday trough slowly moves east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 25, 2021 Author Share Posted June 25, 2021 That hike was no joke, ran out of water on the way back. Went through 6 liters. Maintained a 2 mph pace for the first time in the ADK. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 Sizzle sizzle lol Looks like kbuf may miss out on another heatwave, ksyr will be close..Not that it won't be hot in buffalo just low-mid 80s instead of 90s(near 90).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 26, 2021 Author Share Posted June 26, 2021 Some people have the nerve to say global warming isn't real. The west coast is done for. The freezing level was higher than all the mountains out there. Glaciers are essentially completely gone in the southern US. The mountain tops with snow all year in the west are likely gone soon as well. Over 100 degrees in the northern cascades...literally insane. It would be like Buffalo hitting 110 degrees this summer when the highest we've hit is 99. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 26, 2021 Author Share Posted June 26, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 26, 2021 Author Share Posted June 26, 2021 14 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Sizzle sizzle lol Looks like kbuf may miss out on another heatwave, ksyr will be close..Not that it won't be hot in buffalo just low-mid 80s instead of 90s(near 90).. We will be having our own heatwave here. Entire US on fire 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 On and off showers this morning, only 0.12" in the bucket, better than nothing I guess lol Currently 72°, Dp 65°, RH 82%... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 Clouds and showers should keep us on the"cooler" side today, I think forecast high is 80ish.. It will also allow for a bit drier air to encroach from the south. This will mean party sunny skies returning over the Southern Tier and possibly as far north as I-90. Where the clouds linger east of Lake Ontario, temperatures will be held back today, however as you move progressively farther south in the area with increasing sunshine, conditions will get increasingly sultry. Additionally, decent southerly flow will result in efficient vertical mixing, which should aide in making the mercury jump this afternoon south of I-90. This will result in localized areas seeing heat index values jump toward 90F with the residual humidity from overnight showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 Slow mover.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Some people have the nerve to say global warming isn't real. The west coast is done for. The freezing level was higher than all the mountains out there. Glaciers are essentially completely gone in the southern US. The mountain tops with snow all year in the west are likely gone soon as well. Over 100 degrees in the northern cascades...literally insane. It would be like Buffalo hitting 110 degrees this summer when the highest we've hit is 99. It's nuts, but then again we've been warned about this for decades now. Heading to Iceland next week for the 2nd time in 5 years. Should probably enjoy those glaciers before they're gone too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 This is what happens when the sun comes out lol 7° higher than forecasted.. Sizzlecuse hit 90°, well on its way to an official heat wave.. Heat advisories also issued.. .HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heat index values of 95 to 99 degrees expected. * WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Genesee, Livingston, and Ontario counties. * WHEN...From 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses to occur. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 Sunday night a negatively tilted trough placed over the Upper Great Lakes and the Northern Plains will have its eastern most edge just west of the state. All the while, high pressure will be anchored over the Mid-Atlantic coast with its northwestern edge also aligned over the area. This scenario will likely be the stagnant player throughout the first half of the work week, before the trough amplifies and and digs into the Central and Lower Great Lakes Tuesday night. Therefore with this pattern, south/southwesterly winds across the area will keep filtering in the Gulf of Mexico heat and humidity, thus the heat from Sunday will linger into Monday with highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s, with the exception of the Northern Finger Lakes region where some low 90 degree readings are expected. That being said, with the heat and humidity, heat indices may meet heat advisory criteria Monday. Otherwise, temperatures will begin to cool Tuesday as the trough aloft advances its associated boundary slightly east, with highs ranging in the 80s and a few 90 degree readings possible in the Finger Lakes region. Otherwise outside of the heat, chances for showers and thunderstorms will mainly be diurnally driven each day, with the best chances occuring inland on the lake breeze boundaries. Then Tuesday night, a shortwave will ripple through the longwave trough, which will push the stationary boundary (northwest of the region) across the state which will increase PoPs from northwest to southeast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Broad upper level ridging centered off the Delmarva coastline at the start of Wednesday will slowly weaken and settle a bit further southeastward through Saturday...while modest upper level troughing over Central Canada also digs southeastward. At the surface...this will allow an ill-defined frontal boundary to gradually sag across the Great Lakes and into our region...with one or more weak waves of low pressure potentially rippling northeastward along this boundary. As a result...our weather will generally become more unsettled with time as we push through the latter half of the work week. This will particularly be the case during each afternoon and evening as any synoptic and mesoscale boundaries interact with burgeoning diurnal instability and lead to the development of diurnally-driven convection...though any passing weak surface waves (nearly impossible to time this far out in advance) could also lead to periods of increased precip coverage at night should these actually materialize. Otherwise...we can expect fairly humid conditions to remain in place out through at least Thursday...albeit with a general downward day-to-day trend in temperatures as heights aloft fall and our airmass cools. Later on in the period...the medium range guidance continues to flop around quite a bit regarding the exact evolution of the above mentioned upper level trough...with solutions ranging from a much more progressive and well-defined feature (ala the latest GFS) to a much weaker feature that eventually cuts off into a closed low well to our west next weekend. Given the resulting degree of uncertainty in the large-scale pattern...really have no choice but to maintain at least some semblance of chance PoPs into the start of the Independence Day weekend...along with a blend of guidance temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluffydelusions Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Some people have the nerve to say global warming isn't real. The west coast is done for. The freezing level was higher than all the mountains out there. Glaciers are essentially completely gone in the southern US. The mountain tops with snow all year in the west are likely gone soon as well. Over 100 degrees in the northern cascades...literally insane. It would be like Buffalo hitting 110 degrees this summer when the highest we've hit is 99. It's boiling out here. I moved here to western Washington a bit over 5 years ago from NYC and I went for a brief 2 mile walk around noon today when it was 90f and I swear I haven't sweated that much since the last time I was in NYC lol. That said, I was at Mt. Rainier 2 days ago and still couldn't go on trails up in the Paradise area cause there was still too much snow. This whole week looks terrible in terms of temps but the next few days will be the worst of it. Just want it back into the 60s and 70s like normal already. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 Talk about scary. Couldn’t imagine being in a big city like Chicago and having the tornado sirens go off and looking up and seeing that wall of clouds rolling in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 All time record highs being set…. That ridge out west is insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now