wolfie09 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 While the bulk of Henri looks to miss us to the east, we do have the potential for daily thunderstorms in this tropical air mass, starting today..Where they pop up is anyone's guess lol As the upper level system interacts with tropical system Henri, this will bring progressively more moisture with precipitable water values increasing to almost 2 inches. This combined with diurnal instability will support generally scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Moist airmass supports the potential for locally heavy rainfall, with mesoscale guidance suggesting the greatest risk for heavy rain across the eastern Lake Ontario region. Otherwise, temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the lower to mid 80s today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Convection popping up here and there..Had a brief downpour, not much in the gauge.. Another smallish cell heading this way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Sunday night tropical system Henri will slowly meander its way north-northwestward along the New York-southern New England border... while becoming increasingly absorbed by the deep-layer closed low over the mid-Atlantic states. On this track the heavy rains directly associated with Henri will remain safely confined to our southeast... though the larger-scale trough and tropical airmass across our region will still lead to the potential for some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across eastern/southeastern portions of the area. On Monday the closed low will open up a bit and slowly lift north- northeastward across western New England. In doing so...this will keep Henri and any of its direct impacts again confined well to our east...though daytime heating of our warm and soupy airmass should again lead to the development of some diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms across our area. The potential for these will be highest across the North Country and interior portions of the Finger Lakes where support from the larger-scale trough and diurnal instability will respectively be the greatest...with chances notably lowering with increasing westward extent across the balance of the area... particularly across the Niagara Frontier where the bulk of the day looks to be dry. At this point the bulk of the activity still looks to be scattered in nature...though a brief period of more numerous showers/storms cannot be ruled out across the North Country/interior Finger Lakes. With the tropical airmass that will be in place...the main issue with any slow-moving storms would be locally heavy rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 Tetons are crazy 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Trend is moving east quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Tetons are crazy They are grand… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Monday, showers and thunderstorms possible, with the greatest potential expected across the eastern portions of the area. The daytime heating and a tropical airmass will provide for at least the chance of showers and storms. The track of Hurricane Henri will be monitored closely as the western edge of the storm may approach the North Country during the day on Monday, but most guidance doesn`t push the system that far west. The plume of moisture associated with the storm will push into the far eastern parts of the forecast area, helping to fuel some of the showers and storms that are expected. If Hurricane Henri does end up tracking east a bit quicker on Monday, then that will be in response to the upper level trough moving east more quickly as the storm gets phased into the upper level pattern. This would result in lower chances for showers and storms on Monday with the tropical moisture and upper level support tracking away from the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Full sunshine in Syracuse with the temperature already above forecasted high...currently 85 degrees...hottest in the state. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Sizzle Sizzle lol Up to 82° here.. Sizzlecuse forecast 90° on Wed, so I lied when I said no more 90s haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 I was in SECT for last few days. Wish I could've stayed to ride out storm but meh...other duties called... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Sizzle Sizzle lol Up to 82° here.. Sizzlecuse forecast 90° on Wed, so I lied when I said no more 90s haha Yep...routinely hotter here than many places to the south in other states...it's absolutely absurd...regardless low elevation and city size. I saw upper 80s for Wednesday this upcoming week, and automatically knew that meant we'd be in the 90s for the 17th day this summer. lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Make that Sizzlercuse with a current temp of 89 and dewpoint of 73....lol...florida of New York. I guess we'll hit day 17 of 90s today... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 25 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Make that Sizzlercuse with a current temp of 89 and dewpoint of 73....lol...florida of New York. I guess we'll hit day 17 of 90s today... That's Ballin! We need MOAR! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 FFW now for NYC metro already over 7” of rain today and that one band has pretty much just stalled out right over NE Jersey and NYC metro. Lot of moisture being thrown back from core of “annnnreeee” if that band sits there all night could be some big problems… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 Snow Days Ahead According to the Farmers’ Almanac’s time-tested weather formula, there will be snow, but probably not as much as a snow-sport enthusiasts might dream of. On average, we’ll see near-normal amounts of the white stuff from coast to coast. However, there will be notable month-to-month variations. Winter’s chill will start gradually. In January, temperatures will start out mild for much of the country but will trend toward colder conditions during the middle to latter part of the month. But overall, the month will be stormy, especially along the Atlantic Seaboard where an active storm track will lead to a stretch of precipitation in various forms: rain, snow, sleet, and ice.The Great Lakes, Midwest, and Ohio Valley will have more than their fair share of cold and flaky weather in January. The Northern Plains and Rockies will also experience Old Man Winter’s wrath with stormy weather culminating to a possible blizzard later in the month. In sharp contrast, February will average out to be a much quieter month in terms of storminess across much of the nation. In the eastern-third of the country, for example, we calculate that on average there will be 57% fewer days of measurable precipitation compared to January, a significant drop-off. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that storminess will be completely absent. We’re forecasting a “winter whopper” for parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley toward the end of February. Another “atmospheric hemorrhage” from the Pacific could lash most of the far West, with everything from strong winds to heavy rains and snow. March will see close to normal precipitation nationwide. But in a sense, March will be a microcosm of the entire winter. From start to finish, the month will be full of stretches of uneventful weather, but when it turns stormy, the precipitation will come in big doses. For the East and Midwest, for example, a late winter storm will blow in at mid-month followed by a nor’easter along the East Coast toward month’s end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 Can I trust a source that uses "flaky" to describe the weather? I see our cool down for the end of the week is disappearing. "Sniff sniff" August is definitely going down as "hotter than average" this year. Lots and lots of 80s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 47 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Can I trust a source that uses "flaky" to describe the weather? I see our cool down for the end of the week is disappearing. "Sniff sniff" August is definitely going down as "hotter than average" this year. Lots and lots of 80s. Especially considering that 80/60 are the average high/low for ROC. We're hitting mid-80s daily and around 70 at night. That's brining up the average quite a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, vortmax said: Especially considering that 80/60 are the average high/low for ROC. We're hitting mid-80s daily and around 70 at night. That's brining up the average quite a bit. Yeah, the lows have been so high. Maybe I have a false memory of it...but I felt like stuffy, muggy nights were something I experienced on our vacations down south when I was a kid. Seems like the summers aren't much different up here than they are in the south. Just a blip...or a "new normal?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 59 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Can I trust a source that uses "flaky" to describe the weather? I see our cool down for the end of the week is disappearing. "Sniff sniff" August is definitely going down as "hotter than average" this year. Lots and lots of 80s. i was going to mention that last week's projections of likely Below Normal for the 6-10 & 8-14 day periods in the NE seem to have gone into the crapper. I realize they are only probabilities but looks like we've been granted a stay of execution. Now let's get that Sizzle! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: i was going to mention that last week's projections of likely Below Normal for the 6-10 & 8-14 day periods in the NE seem to have gone into the crapper. I realize they are only probabilities but looks like we've been granted a stay of execution. Yeah, these huge ridges are blasting in the heat. Tropical systems, like the ones we have been having, often seem to mess up the long-term prospects of cool downs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 17 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Yeah, the lows have been so high. Maybe I have a false memory of it...but I felt like stuffy, muggy nights were something I experienced on our vacations down south when I was a kid. Seems like the summers aren't much different up here than they are in the south. Just a blip...or a "new normal?" It seems like it has either been raining or 85° and super humid. Night time lows have been oddly high (and humid) as well. This has turned out to be a remarkably moist summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 3 hours ago, winter_rules said: It seems like it has either been raining or 85° and super humid. Night time lows have been oddly high (and humid) as well. This has turned out to be a remarkably moist summer. I just hope we have a nice, long, dry, and warm fall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 August temps have been well above normal for Buffalo & Watertown, both ranking in the top 5 for warmest August on record. Watertown is also well above normal for rain for the month making it the 4th wettest August on record. Rochester has been closer to normal for temps & rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Overnight lows have been a killer the last couple night's, didn't drop below 70° last night and 68° the previous night, average is 54.9°..Highs have been above average as well just not as drastic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 ..HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heat index values as high as 100 expected. * WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Northern Erie, Genesee, Livingston, and Ontario counties. * WHEN...From 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Temperatures near or above 90 and high humidity may cause heat illnesses to occur. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Associated with this feature a surface low will cross northeast across southeastern Canada. Meanwhile, its attendant cold front will push across the lower Great Lakes Thursday before stalling across the southern portions of New York Friday and Friday night. Ahead of the aforementioned cold frontal passage Thursday, expect showers and afternoon thunderstorms. While instability peaks with MLCAPE values climbing to 3000 J/kg across North Central New York mid/late afternoon Thursday, weak wind shear will hinder the threat for severe thunderstorms. However, the weak wind profiles combined with the increasing PWAT values (up near 1.5 to 2 inches) ahead of the front will increase the threat potential for heavy rain. With the passage of the front, activity will decrease late Thursday evening through Thursday night. Highs Thursday will warm up into the upper 80s across the lake plains with low to mid 80s throughout the higher elevations across the Southern Tier and North Country. As alluded to previously, the front will stall out across the Southern Tier Friday. Behind the front, especially east of Lake Ontario a much drier airmass will briefly reach the region dropping dewpoints down nearly 10 degrees into the mid 50s Friday and Friday night. Further south/southeastward a tad more humid airmass with dewpoints in the 60s will reside promoting the chance for a few afternoon thunderstorms Friday along the lake breeze boundaries. Shower activity will then decrease Friday night due to the lack of daytime heating. Otherwise, temperatures Friday will warm up into the upper 60s to low 70s across the North Country and due to the higher dewpoints across the remainder of the area, highs will range in the mid to upper 70s with a few locations reaching 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Above average, above average, above average....what else is new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 24, 2021 Author Share Posted August 24, 2021 I found snow and a glacier. It’s freezing over here. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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