Upstate/Eastern New York

[wolfie09]

Excessive rainfall for Fred..

 

[TugHillMatt]

2 hours ago, Syrmax said:

We need this in Dec/Jan. 

For sure. With cold enough temps, of course.

[Syrmax]

1.55" yesterday and overnight...total of 2.2"  for the system thusfar.

[winter_rules]

1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

1.55" yesterday and overnight...total of 2.2"  for the system thusfar.

We have been very lucky in the Catskills to be just on the eastern edge of all the rain thus far.  We have not received 0.1” thus far, which is helping to keep our creeks down before the heavy rain hits tonight.  

[wolfie09]

0.22" overnight, 2.5" storm total so far..

TD Fred moving at a snails pace..

 

[wolfie09]

Nam brings in some very heavy rain overnight..

 

 

[wolfie09]

I already have more rain than the 0z euro had for here.. Models are struggling.. Euro has a SW-NE trajectory but as of now TD Fred looks to be moving more or less due north...

[Syrmax]

15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I already have more rain than the 0z euro had for here.. Models are struggling.. Euro has a SW-NE trajectory but as of now TD Fred looks to be moving more or less due north...

Euro has been showing this sliding out ENE but sure doesn't look like that's happening real time.

[Syrmax]

22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Nam brings in some very heavy rain overnight..

 

 

 

7.0" Congrats ROC!  

[wolfie09]

Elevated Flash Flood Potential through Tonight...

Our already moisture rich airmass (PWAT of 1.98 this morning at BUF)
will become even more saturated rest of today as the remnants of
once tropical storm Fred will move across our forecast area. One way
to recognize is this is by looking at precipitable water values.
PWAT values that have flirted around the 2 inch mark for the past
couple days will climb to about 2.25" and that will set the stage
for rains that could be tropical in nature. All that will be needed
will be for some forcing to realize the potential for this airmass.

Thus far, widespread light to moderate rain is over all the
area. Heaviest showers embedded in this rain have produced
hourly amounts mainly 0.25 inch or less, so manageable to this
point. As the core of the tropical remnants push north across
the Upper Ohio valley, a shortwave ahead of it will make its way
across the western counties of New York. This will support a
burgeoning area of moderately heavy showers and possibly a
thunderstorm by early afternoon. The real issue could be later
in the afternoon though as the aforementioned core moves across,
or JUST east, of our forecast area. This is when warm rain
processes within a deep area of lift will generate a shield of
moderate to occasionally heavy rain, and possibly a few
thunderstorms. Any convection will be slow moving, so there will
be a very real risk for flash flooding within a very efficient
rain making environment. One to two inches of rain should not be
uncommon across parts of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes by
this evening, and as the remnants push northeast tonight, so too
will the area of heaviest rain. No changes to flash flood watch
for areas generally southeast of a line from the Tug Hill to
KROC to KJHW. This is not to say that the remainder of the
region will not receive any heavy rain...but just that this is
the area most prone to experiencing flash flooding due to the
track of the system.

[wolfie09]

Hopefully that puts an end to the 90s..

We have had one 90° day in the past 4 Septembers(Early in the month), so while it's possible it's also unlikely..

 

[lakeeffectkid383]

41 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

7.0" Congrats ROC!  

Should verify if their rain measuring methods are similar to their snow measuring methods. Might even be on the low side haha! 

[wolfie09]

GFS wants to threaten the coastline with Henri..

[wolfie09]

NHC keeps it mainly off shore..

 

[wolfie09]

 

[BuffaloWeather]

48 and rain here in the Tetons 

[wolfie09]

2 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

I already have more rain than the 0z euro had for here.. Models are struggling.. Euro has a SW-NE trajectory but as of now TD Fred looks to be moving more or less due north...

You can see euro has adjusted west..

[wolfie09]

Our already moisture rich airmass (PWAT of 1.98 inches this morning
at BUF now up to 2.05 inches on 18z sounding) will become even more
saturated into tonight (likely at least 2.25 inches) as the remnants
of once tropical storm Fred move from southwest-central PA toward
Finger Lakes and over eastern NY. Widespread light to moderate rain
ongoing early this afternoon will become more moderate to heavy late
afternoon through early overnight hours, before diminishing
late tonight. Though the circulation of post tropical cyclone
Fred will just graze our area from western Southern Tier to the
Finger Lakes, pockets of heavier rain could occur farther
northwest into more of WNY and the lower Genesee valley as
general mid-level troughing slides across the area and interacts
with the anomalously high PWATs. Though majority of especially
high res models were WAY overdone with QPF for initial leading
rain showers into our area this morning, 12z versions are doing
better now and show this potential in the 21z-06z time frame as
does recent runs of RAP/HRRR. A warm and humid night otherwise
with some fog especially over the higher terrain.

Showers will taper Thursday morning over WNY and by midday toward
eastern Lake Ontario region to Finger Lakes and central NY as post
tropical cyclone Fred moves across southeast NY, to north of NYC
area. Pockets of heavy rain could still impact eastern Lake Ontario
in the morning, but overall heaviest rain will be exiting east of
our forecast area. Still a warm and humid airmass so cannot count
out some showers or a thunderstorms during peak heating of the day.
However, we will be on the subsident side of the departing system.
With more sunshine expected, highs will bounce back into the upper
70s and lower 80s for Niagara Frontier while readings will be in the
mid 70s to near 80 other areas.

[vortmax]

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

12z versions are doing better now and show this potential in the 21z-06z time frame

So 7" of rain in ROC is doing better? Lol. 

[wolfie09]

Haha.. Yeah 18z went farther east..

Who knows where any of these heavier bands set up lol Radar is our best guidance..

Hrrr and 3k fwiw..

[DeltaT13]

4 minutes ago, vortmax said:

So 7" of rain in ROC is doing better? Lol. 

What I wouldn't do to see that verify!  

[wolfie09]

Current radars..

 

[wolfie09]

New update, raised the probabilities of cooler than normal, slightly..

[Syrmax]

Well, I dumped almost 2" of water out of the pool this a.m. looks like another inch or two will need to be dumped by morning.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Southern Ontario has been poppin this year!  We’re getting sprinkles and they got tornadoes…

 

[wolfie09]

It's been light steady rain here all day for a grand total of 0.40..Some of the heavier precipitation rates trying to make it's way north..

 

[CNY_WX]

ELMIRA, N.Y. (WETM-TV) – There is breaking news out of Elmira, as heavy rain continues to pound the region causing dangerous flooding. Multiple water rescues and evacuations in parts of Steuben County and the Northern Tier have been reported as well. 

Gallery: Flooding in Tully after heavy rain

The Steuben County Office of Emergency Management issued the following statement.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR STEUBEN COUNTY UNTIL 11:00 P.M.
RAIN IS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY. MANY COUNTY AND
TOWN ROADS HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY FLASH FLOODING FROM RAIN OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS.

EMERGENCY OFFICIALS WARN THAT SOUTHERN AREAS OF
STEUBEN COUNTY HAVE SEEN MORE THAN 3” OF RAIN IN THE WARNING AREA
CAUSING FLASH FLOODING IN THE TOWNS OF WEST UNION, WOODHULL,
TROUPSBURG, TUSCARORA, GREENWOOD, CANISTEO AND HORNELLSVILE.
PLEASE AVOID THIS AREA OF THE COUNTY.

THE FOLLOWING ROADS HAVE BEEN AFFECTED:
STATE ROUTE 36
STATE ROUTE 417
STATE ROUTE 248
COUNTY ROUTE 84
COUNTY ROUTE 117
COUNTY ROUTE 103
COUNTY ROUTE 98

DRIVERS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING AT NIGHT. DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR CAR THROUGH WATER THAT COVERS THE ROADWAY.
LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES IF CONDITIONS
CHANGE.

[wolfie09]

Gearing up for wintertime I see. .

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Beautiful here. Dropping into the 30s tonight at my air bnb in Idaho 

[winter_rules]

Just got word of massive flooding in Woodhull, NY where we recently did some work.  They are in a big long valley that flows NE into Corning, NY.  I suspect we’ll see it on the news. NYS Rte 417 runs along that valley and has to be damaged in places based on what I heard about Woodhull.