Upstate/Eastern New York

[DeltaT13]

11 minutes ago, tim123 said:

You cant even admit when your wrong. Real mature. Not surprised at all really. But would expect no less from a blowhard.

Again with the name calling?? 

I’m only posting data from census.gov. The real numbers. We only have accurate numbers every ten years (the others are estimates and not confirmed). Between 2010 and 2020 we grew by 763 people. That’s a cold hard stat. I don’t understand why you don’t agree with that. 
 

 

[tim123]

Delta if you read what I said was it was a 5000 increase from 2019 when the estimate was 205695. Plus monroe county gained 15000. Where am I wrong?

5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Again with the name calling?? 

I’m only posting data from census.gov. The real numbers. We only have accurate numbers every ten years (the others are estimates and not confirmed). Between 2010 and 2020 we grew by 763 people. That’s a cold hard stat. I don’t understand why you don’t agree with that. 
 

 

 

[DeltaT13]

9 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Delta if you read what I said was it was a 5000 increase from 2019 when the estimate was 205695. Plus monroe county gained 15000. Where am I wrong?

 

Ok, first off we can’t trust the 2019 numbers because there was no census done. Those numbers are extrapolated in strange ways.  Second, we have to look at the big picture. If we only gained 700 people over a decade, that trend is more important than a small incremental jump from one year to the next, which again is only an estimate. The good news is that somehow we did actually gain population, albeit the tiniest amount. 

An analogy would be like saying you had 100 dollars in 2010. In 2019 you had 50 bucks left. In 2020 you had 105 dollars. You didn’t gain 55 dollars. You really only gained 5. 

[wolfie09]

Finally some relief even if it's just for a couple/few days lol

[tim123]

Argument win. Back peddling. And the monroe county numbers? Thats a pretty big increase of 15000.

[DeltaT13]

53 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Argument win. Back peddling. And the monroe county numbers? Thats a pretty big increase of 15000.

Back peddling?  You must be the type of gambler that loses 1000 dollars one week, makes a 100 the next week and thinks they are winning.  The city of Rochester is struggling big time.  The numbers are bad. 

The Monroe county numbers are good though. Not amazing but good. I’ll take them for sure though. I need to dig in and see where these people come from (home grown/local or true out of state transplants). When a parched Cali breaks off into the Pacific they will come streaming in. 
 

Edit - I see the one website I posted last night has different numbers for the county. So I was in error there.

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Let’s get back on topic boys… Here’s some bacon to clear your mind…

sizzle sizzle

My wifes vegan and can't even go to the animal part of the fair because they're treated so "bad". If only she knew how brutal nature is. 

[BuffaloWeather]

I'll put an end to this argument. You can only use data from 2010 and 2020 as the census is done every 10 years. The years in between are all estimates. 

Monroe County and the Rochester metropolitan area both lost population over the past decade, according to data released Tuesday by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The Rochester metropolitan area, which includes the city, Monroe County, and several neighboring counties, fell 1.1 percent to 1,067,486 in 2020 from 1,079,671 in 2010, according to census figures.

Similarly, the 2020 count marks the first time the metropolitan area population fell. It had grown every year between 1900 and 2010.

Rural counties, such as Genesee, Orleans, Wayne, and Livingston, all lost population between 2010 and 2020. The only county in Rochester’s metro to gain population was Ontario, which rose 2 percent to 110,091.

https://www.wxxinews.org/post/census-shows-population-fell-monroe-county-metro-area#:~:text=Monroe County's population fell by,2020 from 744%2C344 in 2010.

[BuffaloWeather]

I'll be hiking this day pretty high up. Wonder if I see some early morning snowflakes

[Thinksnow18]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'll be hiking this day pretty high up. Wonder if I see some early morning snowflakes

If you do can you bring some back…

[BuffaloWeather]

4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

If you do can you bring some back…

Will be between 10-12k feet so should be able to see some.

[BuffaloWeather]

Most of the snow is gone below 10k feet right now, but I'll be hiking a few of these.

[BuffaloWeather]

[BuffaloWeather]

We hiked this one in October of last year. It was 70-75 and sunny at base camp, got to the top and complete whiteout blizzard. Was a little over 10k feet at top.

This was at the top with 60-70 mph winds

 

[Thinksnow18]

16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Was this forecast? I couldn’t believe the water in the creeks snd in properties this morning. 

[wolfie09]

Surface still warming up nicely into the mid-upper 70s but DPs into the mid 50s makes it feel so much more comfortable..

[tim123]

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'll put an end to this argument. You can only use data from 2010 and 2020 as the census is done every 10 years. The years in between are all estimates. 

Monroe County and the Rochester metropolitan area both lost population over the past decade, according to data released Tuesday by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The Rochester metropolitan area, which includes the city, Monroe County, and several neighboring counties, fell 1.1 percent to 1,067,486 in 2020 from 1,079,671 in 2010, according to census figures.

Similarly, the 2020 count marks the first time the metropolitan area population fell. It had grown every year between 1900 and 2010.

Rural counties, such as Genesee, Orleans, Wayne, and Livingston, all lost population between 2010 and 2020. The only county in Rochester’s metro to gain population was Ontario, which rose 2 percent to 110,091.

https://www.wxxinews.org/post/census-shows-population-fell-monroe-county-metro-area#:~:text=Monroe County's population fell by,2020 from 744%2C344 in 2010.

Wrong again. New revised data was just released from census.

[tim123]

[TugHillMatt]

So, Rochester gained and lost people over the past couple decades...the end.

Soooo, how about the winter forecast.....

[tim123]

Sorry when I am right I don't back down. 

[brentrich]

7 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

So, Rochester gained and lost people over the past couple decades...the end.

Soooo, how about the winter forecast.....

Looks like we will be getting repeat of 2014/2015 winter. 

[wolfie09]

Nice chilly night last with a low of 52°, hovering in the low-mid 70s so far today, DP at 55°, RF is lower than the surface temp which is a welcomed change lol

[wolfie09]

Some"sizzle sizzle" returns at the end of the week as well as precipitation chances..

 

Staying warm and humid with chances of showers and thunderstorms,
peaking during the afternoon through early evening hours.

Large scale pattern changes little Wednesday into Thursday. Remnants
of tropical system Fred impact our region on Wednesday as deep
moisture lifts across the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. With little
large scale feature shown now and heights aloft neutral flow to
slight ridging, expect a typical pattern of convection on
Wednesday and Thursday with lake breeze boundaries and terrain
providing primary lift. Wednesday could have bit more of a
gradient sw wind so decreased pops from blended guidance output
northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Given close approach of
deep tropical moisture from remnants of Fred, convection from
Southern Tier to Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario could
produce heavy downpours. Both days will see highs in the 80s,
warmest over the lake plains with less clouds/showers.

Friday into Saturday, ridge holds offshore of the Atlantic coast
while weak troughing aloft over upper Lakes slowly slides east. Some
minor timing differences, but should see increased coverage in
showers and some thunderstorms as this wave tracks east across lower
Great Lakes. Right now, greatest chances by Friday over WNY with
maximum in chances on Saturday more south and east. H85 temps in the
the middle teens support highs into at least the low to mid 80s, but
even upper 80s could occur either day lake plains to southeast of
Lake Ontario as long as clouds/convection are not too widespread.

[BuffaloWeather]

we going chasing

[BuffaloWeather]

Kind of cool how they put the snow level in the forecast. Wasn't planning on bringing my winter coat but with winds and temps in 40s I may have to.

Thursday Night

A chance of rain showers before 3am, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Snow level 13700 feet lowering to 8300 feet after midnight . Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday

A chance of rain and snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Snow level 8000 feet rising to 13600 feet in the afternoon. Partly sunny, with a high near 63.

Friday Night

A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Snow level 13100 feet lowering to 8300 feet after midnight . Partly cloudy, with a low around 36.

Saturday

A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Snow level 8200 feet rising to 14300 feet in the afternoon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 68. Breezy.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

On 8/14/2021 at 1:14 PM, Thinksnow18 said:

Was this forecast? I couldn’t believe the water in the creeks snd in properties this morning. 

Somewhat forecast.  As the theme has been models had real hard time where the convection was going to erupt.  HRRR did pick it up perfectly about 3 hours out.  
 

Pretty crazy stat on that storm.  That was the 8th greatest 1 hour rainfall in Buffalo.

[champy]

4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Kind of cool how they put the snow level in the forecast. Wasn't planning on bringing my winter coat but with winds and temps in 40s I may have to.

Thursday Night

A chance of rain showers before 3am, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Snow level 13700 feet lowering to 8300 feet after midnight . Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday

A chance of rain and snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Snow level 8000 feet rising to 13600 feet in the afternoon. Partly sunny, with a high near 63.

Friday Night

A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Snow level 13100 feet lowering to 8300 feet after midnight . Partly cloudy, with a low around 36.

Saturday

A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Snow level 8200 feet rising to 14300 feet in the afternoon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 68. Breezy.

In mid-August 2005 we tent camped with my parents in the mountains in Jasper National Park in Alberta. We had rain all day and went to our campsite at about 6000' where it turned to straight up slush snow. First time experiencing snow in August - awesome experience...for me at least. Not sure everyone else in camp appreciated it lol

[wolfie09]

More rain potential the next couple days..

[wolfie09]

A warm front over the Upper Ohio valley will push north into our
region tonight. This will support fairly widespread showers and
thunderstorms...particularly over the western counties (pops boosted
to cat). Given PWAT values arnd 2"...have added some enhanced
wording for heavy rain.

The warm front will continue its northward trek on Tuesday...
advancing across the Eastern Lk Ontario region during the first half
of the day. This is where the most widespread shower/thunderstorm
activity will be found...although with limited heating (extensive
cloud cover) during the day...many areas could pick up a shower or
thunderstorm. Will maintain heavy rain enhanced wording in areas
with likely to cat pops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Deep tropical moisture, remnants of TS Fred, will likely fuel showers
and storms during this period.

What`s left of Fred lifts out of the deep south and tracks up along
the spine of the Appalachians Tuesday night. Juicy airmass will
stream north ahead of Fred with PW values nearing or exceeding 2.0
inches across the region. BUFKIT soundings show weak to little flow
through most of the atmospheric column Wednesday afternoon/evening
and warm cloud depth of +12K feet. The best shot at seeing showers
or stronger convection will be from the S. Tier east into the Finger
Lakes region. However, this will all depend on the exact track of
Fred. That said, any convection that does form will be capable of
producing tropical downpours which may lead to flash flooding. This
will especially be the case if storms can focus on a boundary or
train over the same locations. Will need to keep an eye on this
threat and the track of Fred. Will mention this in the HWO.
Otherwise, humid and warm airmass will be in place with highs mainly
in the 80s.

Wednesday night, convection will continue as Fred slowly works past
the area overnight but will slowly diminish in coverage with the
loss of solar isolation

[Syrmax]

On 8/14/2021 at 2:35 PM, TugHillMatt said:

So, Rochester gained and lost people over the past couple decades...the end.

Soooo, how about the winter forecast.....

Sizzle Sizzle.