wolfie09 Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 Temperatures are forecast to be near normal through the end of the month, then even a bit below normal for the first part of August. Precipitation is expected to be at or just below normal during the same period, which is some good news after all of the rain our area has received during the month of July up to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 Well you know where to go if you want the real sizzle sizzle lol Actually GFS keeps the center of the country sizzling it's entire run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 Rain chances ramp up this weekend.. Saturday late afternoon and night a warm front will extend into our region. This front will bring a warmer, more unstable atmosphere and also increase humidity. Ahead of this front, and on the nose of a shallow 40 knot LLJ, showers and thunderstorms will form across our region through the night. As the moisture deepens the chances for localized heavier rainfall is possible. Mild air will also be around Saturday Night with lows warmer than the previous night. A very humid airmass will start the day Sunday for our region. A few showers will be possible through the morning hours...and this activity will blossom during the afternoon and evening hours as a cold front bears down upon the region. The cold front will begin to pass through our region Sunday night, with shower and thunderstorms diminishing in coverage area. Some patches of fog are possible over the wet ground Sunday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: what did you think? I've seen it before...like it though because it takes a different track as to how the climate changes (N Atlantic current). Obviously not happening in 6-8 weeks...lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 I don't know much about severe weather and it's the LR nam but parameters look decent no? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 23, 2021 Author Share Posted July 23, 2021 14 hours ago, wolfie09 said: I don't know much about severe weather and it's the LR nam but parameters look decent no? Lol Did someone say shelf cloud over lake Erie? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 23, 2021 Author Share Posted July 23, 2021 Day 2 outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 A convectively augmented mid level shortwave will move from the western Great Lakes Saturday morning to the eastern Great Lakes by Saturday night, with an associated surface warm front and dewpoint boundary reaching Western NY later Saturday afternoon, then the eastern Lake Ontario region Saturday evening. Moisture transport and convergence will be enhanced across the eastern Great Lakes by a belt of 30-40 knot low level flow, and PWAT values will rise to around 1.5". Saturday will start dry, then a chance of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will arrive in Western NY during the afternoon. The best forcing and moisture cross the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night, when the most widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected. PWAT values rising to around 1.5" and ample moisture transport will support heavy downpours with some of the storms. Forecast soundings are not supportive of much severe weather risk, with poor mid level lapse rates resulting in skinny and small CAPE profiles. Most of the showers and storms will exit from west to east late Saturday night and early Sunday morning as the mid level trough, low level jet, and axis of deep moisture move into eastern NY and New England. Drier and capped mid level air will move into the eastern Great Lakes by afternoon, and stable lake shadows will also expand northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario. This will keep the bulk of the area dry for the rest of Sunday once any early morning showers exit. The one exception will be across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes where some re-development of convection may occur during the afternoon and early evening. Any diurnal convection across these inland areas will end Sunday evening, leaving the rest of Sunday night dry areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 Majority of SR guidance has quite a bit more than WPC guidance which looks mostly like the rgem.. 3k nam probably overboard as usual lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 23, 2021 Author Share Posted July 23, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 "As a trough stays across the Northeast next week temperatures will be near to below normal" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 Regional radar shows showers approaching from the west this afternoon. Clouds will continue to increase across the region with scattered light showers moving into far western NY this afternoon. Dry conditions will continue east of the Genesee River today. Warmer and more humid today as moisture continues to increase ahead of the next system. A warm front extends across the long axis of Lake Huron down to western Lake Erie this afternoon. There is a sharp moisture gradient across the region with PWATS less than an inch across most of western and north central NY to close to 2 inches just to the west of Buffalo. The area of showers and moisture will track east into western NY through early evening and through late evening across north central NY. The warm front will move east of north central NY tonight while southwest winds increase across the region. Additional moisture will advect into the region ahead of an approaching cold front and shortwave trough. A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms will form west of the region today and track across western and north central NY tonight. Elevated instability will increase but remain weak tonight. The best chance for thunderstorms will be with the organized line of convection between 12am-8am tonight. This line have forward progression however high moisture content will result in heavy downpours especially with thunderstorms. Widespread basin average amounts of 0.5-1.0 are expected with localized higher amounts in storms. CAM guidance suggest east of Lake Erie and southwest of Lake Ontario as the areas to see the higher amounts of close to an inch of rainfall through Sunday morning. Warm tonight with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. A cold front will move through the region Sunday morning. While a lot of mid-level dry air moves into the region, greatly reducing PWATS, surface dewpoints linger through the afternoon. With surface temperatures rising into the low to mid 80s, isolated showers are possible mainly across interior locations and along lake breezes in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 Convection inching closer, we'll see what it looks like in a couple of hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 We finished with 0.64" for the event, majority coming between 130-2 am..Need just 0.02' to reach double figures on the month lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 25, 2021 Author Share Posted July 25, 2021 13 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Convection inching closer, we'll see what it looks like in a couple of hours lol Had a couple bangers last night, died out a little bit as it moved through. The real question is how did someone measure .30 out over Lake Erie? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 Little cool down coming which the GFS predicted like a week ago.. With a decent amount of clouds around, especially Tuesday and Thursday high temperatures will be near or just below normal...while overnight lows dip to near normal levels. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cooler and drier airmass is then forecast to build into the eastern Great Lakes by Friday behind the departing cold front, with temperatures trending about 5 degrees below average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 After tomorrow no warmer than mid 70s in the forecast with upper 60s, low 70s Friday/Sat.. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 Trough after trough.. I'm sure we'll get into some more sizzle sizzle eventually lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Trough after trough.. I'm sure we'll get into some more sizzle sizzle eventually lol Does Monday look similar? We were thinking about Water Safari but that looks pretty cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 For next Monday the euro is pretty chilly.. Obviously still some time to change.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 Yikes, that's pretty cold to be in the water all day in Old Forge. Thanks for posting it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 Fall/winter like pattern.. 4-5 months it will be reversed lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 26, 2021 Author Share Posted July 26, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 26, 2021 Author Share Posted July 26, 2021 Looks like that middle American ridge moves east in beginning of August. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 26, 2021 Author Share Posted July 26, 2021 Next week looks quite chilly. I think that ridge eventually moves over into the northeast though sometime in next 1-2 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 12 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I've had 8.96" of rain in July while KSYR only at 6.40". Summer rainfall can be quite localized but...wondering if the KSYR Sizzle was also evaporating the rainfall in their collection gauge? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 A pattern representative of a much "cooler" season will then take shape toward the close of the weekend into the start of next week. Strengthening of the western ridge centered over the Rockies will take place, amplifying the ridge well into northern Canada. Meanwhile, the impact downstream will be a large sharpening trough over the east that will possibly dig well into the southeastern states. In the center of this large trough will be a deep closed upper low that is forecast to drop into Hudson/James Bays and linger...ringing any bells yet? In layman`s terms, if I had no clue what the current month is, just looking at the upper level pattern would think it was early-mid winter with a potential blockbuster lake effect event on the way (one can dream, right?). However, in reality being that it`s the start of August, this will translate to a strong cold front crossing the region at some point with the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms. This will be followed by yet another push of some unseasonably chilly air in its` wake. Still a week away, so things like timing/positioning/etc can and likely will change some, but something to watch. Highs Sunday will generally be in the low to mid 70s ahead of the cold front, before the next push of cooler air moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 26, 2021 Author Share Posted July 26, 2021 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: A pattern representative of a much "cooler" season will then take shape toward the close of the weekend into the start of next week. Strengthening of the western ridge centered over the Rockies will take place, amplifying the ridge well into northern Canada. Meanwhile, the impact downstream will be a large sharpening trough over the east that will possibly dig well into the southeastern states. In the center of this large trough will be a deep closed upper low that is forecast to drop into Hudson/James Bays and linger...ringing any bells yet? In layman`s terms, if I had no clue what the current month is, just looking at the upper level pattern would think it was early-mid winter with a potential blockbuster lake effect event on the way (one can dream, right?). However, in reality being that it`s the start of August, this will translate to a strong cold front crossing the region at some point with the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms. This will be followed by yet another push of some unseasonably chilly air in its` wake. Still a week away, so things like timing/positioning/etc can and likely will change some, but something to watch. Highs Sunday will generally be in the low to mid 70s ahead of the cold front, before the next push of cooler air moves in. 4 months too soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 26, 2021 Author Share Posted July 26, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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