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Shower and thunderstorm coverage is increasing ahead of an
incoming wave. Hodographs suggest straight line wind damage
would be the most preferential mode as MUCAPE values surge over
1500 J/kg with bulk shear values jump up toward 45 kts. Large
scale ascent in an area of DPVA through the area with a
backbuilding upper jet streak right entrance region parked
overhead. This will give a nice large scale push to harness the
instability and generate fairly widespread showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. SPC has issued a severe
thunderstorm watch from Chautauqua County to Cayuga County and
all points south in New York for this.

The aforementioned system surges southeastward this evening,
which should bring to a close our severe weather chances. Cooler
air aloft under northwest flow may still allow for some showers,
however.
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20 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Interesting...Peter Hall did not make one mention of the storm in No. Onondaga during his noon forecast...unless that's prerecorded? 

Usually channel 3 has a crawl on the screen with every warning within 150 miles of Syracuse and today there is nothing. Maybe they all took the day off. 

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From a potential rainy week to pretty much nothing lol I recorded 0.12" during the week..I can't complain to much as I have 3.10" on the month which is more than a lot of other places..Few sprinkles yesterday and a few sprinkles today..Can't wait till fall with more organized rain systems and lake effect rain, I hate relying on this pop up shit..

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15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

From a potential rainy week to pretty much nothing lol I recorded 0.12" during the week..I can't complain to much as I have 3.10" on the month which is more than a lot of other places..Few sprinkles yesterday and a few sprinkles today..Can't wait till fall with more organized rain systems and lake effect rain, I hate relying on this pop up shit..

The farther south you go in CNY, the more rain there has been in general. Sort of a continuation of the pattern of the past two years.

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2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Wow, Newark has officially hit triple digits at 101 degrees. @Syrmax, I found your new summer vacay spot. The friendly, pristine, pollution-free environs of NJ..............

I remember from living in NYC that Newark was always the hot spot. Big UHI, not far above sea level, cut off from maritime influences. Newark generally ran about 5-10F hotter than where I lived in central Brooklyn.

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Showers chances will diminish some, but linger well into Thursday
night as the upper cutoff low continues its descent into the Lower
Great Lakes. However, guidance begins to show larger discrepancies
with the track of this low as it approaches the region Friday
morning. The latest 12z ECMWF/GGEM solutions have the low taking a
sharp right turn and passing eastward over central NY, while the
GFS/NAM depict the low continuing to drift southward, taking on a
more southeasterly track as it moves across PA Friday evening.
Regardless, the close proximity of the low and associated surface
wave should lead to the majority of the area seeing scattered shower
activity on Friday. Best chances for precip will still lie across
eastern portions of the area, from the Finger Lakes region up
through the Western Dacks
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1 hour ago, WNash said:

I remember from living in NYC that Newark was always the hot spot. Big UHI, not far above sea level, cut off from maritime influences. Newark generally ran about 5-10F hotter than where I lived in central Brooklyn.

I remember going past Newark many times....sooooo much concrete/asphalt and lots of dirty haze in the sky.

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13 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Total of 1.59" rain today. I was golfing up in Oswego County this afternion/evening so I missed the final line that came thru no. Onondaga county. 

We ducked and dodged all day, unfortunately.  I wanted rain so badly. Only .05” in my gauge. 

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10 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

We ducked and dodged all day, unfortunately.  I wanted rain so badly. Only .05” in my gauge. 

 Same here. BUF finished June close to 2” below normal rainfall which is a lot when average I think is around 3”. Barely an inch IMBY over the last 2 months. Maybe something falls here in the next few days with the wind out of the N/NW instead of coming out of the SW up the length of the precip crushing lake? 

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Tonight, the potential for showers will continue as the upper level
low induces cyclonic flow over the region, and the shortwave trough
passes over the WNY area. The greatest chance for shower activity
will be near and over the western portion of Lake Ontario, down
toward Lake Erie. Low temps tonight will be in the mid 50s to low
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The core of an upper level low north of the Great Lakes this morning
should be dropping south and over WNY or Lake Erie by Friday
morning.  This type of pattern will feature light flow through the
atmospheric column, but not particularly abundant moisture
(precipitable water nearing 1.00" or near average for this time of
year).  Forecast soundings support enough buoyancy for the
development showers and possible thunderstorms as the coldest core
aloft moves overhead.  However, convection should not be
particularly strong. The slow moving nature may be of some concern
for localized heavy rain though.
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Booked a trip out west for next month for 10 days going to Tetons, Yellowstone and Glacier national park. Thinking 2-3 days in each park. Rental car for 10 days was $1050 and flights for 2 people were around $975. I did the same thing in Utah/Arizona for $750 for flights and $600 for rental car in May so prices definitely going up for summer. It might be because you can only really visit glacier NP in summer, once September hits snow starts to fall up there. Glacier has been on my list for awhile

Perfect 5-Day Glacier National Park Itinerary - Pink Caddy Travelogue

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It's crazy how big the Adirondack state park really is..Kind of out of left field lol

It would take these five national parks added together to equal the size of the Adirondack Park: Yellowstone, Grand Canyon, Yosemite, Everglades, and Great Smoky National Parks..

 

The Adirondack Park is larger than any of the seven smallest states in the United States: Hawaii, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Delaware, Rhode Island, and New Jersey. 

 

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1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

It's crazy how big the Adirondack state park really is..Kind of out of left field lol

It would take these five national parks added together to equal the size of the Adirondack Park: Yellowstone, Grand Canyon, Yosemite, Everglades, and Great Smoky National Parks..

 

The Adirondack Park is larger than any of the seven smallest states in the United States: Hawaii, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Delaware, Rhode Island, and New Jersey. 

 

It's the largest state park in the USA. 

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Booked a trip out west for next month for 10 days going to Tetons, Yellowstone and Glacier national park. Thinking 2-3 days in each park. Rental car for 10 days was $1050 and flights for 2 people were around $975. I did the same thing in Utah/Arizona for $750 for flights and $600 for rental car in May so prices definitely going up for summer. It might be because you can only really visit glacier NP in summer, once September hits snow starts to fall up there. Glacier has been on my list for awhile

Perfect 5-Day Glacier National Park Itinerary - Pink Caddy Travelogue

I thought about going out west this year but the crowds and restrictions, esp at National Parks have turned me off of that. My sister was at Zion last month, gorgeous but a bit of a hassle overall.  I'm thinking Greece at this point, for an adventure. It's fully open and not living the covid life any longer.

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