wolfie09 Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 Shower and thunderstorm coverage is increasing ahead of an incoming wave. Hodographs suggest straight line wind damage would be the most preferential mode as MUCAPE values surge over 1500 J/kg with bulk shear values jump up toward 45 kts. Large scale ascent in an area of DPVA through the area with a backbuilding upper jet streak right entrance region parked overhead. This will give a nice large scale push to harness the instability and generate fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. SPC has issued a severe thunderstorm watch from Chautauqua County to Cayuga County and all points south in New York for this. The aforementioned system surges southeastward this evening, which should bring to a close our severe weather chances. Cooler air aloft under northwest flow may still allow for some showers, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 Interesting...Peter Hall did not make one mention of the storm in No. Onondaga during his noon forecast...unless that's prerecorded? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Interesting...Peter Hall did not make one mention of the storm in No. Onondaga during his noon forecast...unless that's prerecorded? Probably prerecorded last month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 20 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Interesting...Peter Hall did not make one mention of the storm in No. Onondaga during his noon forecast...unless that's prerecorded? Usually channel 3 has a crawl on the screen with every warning within 150 miles of Syracuse and today there is nothing. Maybe they all took the day off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 Just measured 0.44 inches of rain from the storm. All in all pretty weak sauce for this area, no hail and little wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 From a potential rainy week to pretty much nothing lol I recorded 0.12" during the week..I can't complain to much as I have 3.10" on the month which is more than a lot of other places..Few sprinkles yesterday and a few sprinkles today..Can't wait till fall with more organized rain systems and lake effect rain, I hate relying on this pop up shit.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 We were pretty much the"transition" zone as more waves of LP will form the next couple of days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: From a potential rainy week to pretty much nothing lol I recorded 0.12" during the week..I can't complain to much as I have 3.10" on the month which is more than a lot of other places..Few sprinkles yesterday and a few sprinkles today..Can't wait till fall with more organized rain systems and lake effect rain, I hate relying on this pop up shit.. The farther south you go in CNY, the more rain there has been in general. Sort of a continuation of the pattern of the past two years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 Wow, Newark has officially hit triple digits at 101 degrees. @Syrmax, I found your new summer vacay spot. The friendly, pristine, pollution-free environs of NJ.............. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 Some tropical activity on the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 38 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Some tropical activity on the GFS... Also some snow up in the top corner lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Wow, Newark has officially hit triple digits at 101 degrees. @Syrmax, I found your new summer vacay spot. The friendly, pristine, pollution-free environs of NJ.............. I remember from living in NYC that Newark was always the hot spot. Big UHI, not far above sea level, cut off from maritime influences. Newark generally ran about 5-10F hotter than where I lived in central Brooklyn. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 Showers chances will diminish some, but linger well into Thursday night as the upper cutoff low continues its descent into the Lower Great Lakes. However, guidance begins to show larger discrepancies with the track of this low as it approaches the region Friday morning. The latest 12z ECMWF/GGEM solutions have the low taking a sharp right turn and passing eastward over central NY, while the GFS/NAM depict the low continuing to drift southward, taking on a more southeasterly track as it moves across PA Friday evening. Regardless, the close proximity of the low and associated surface wave should lead to the majority of the area seeing scattered shower activity on Friday. Best chances for precip will still lie across eastern portions of the area, from the Finger Lakes region up through the Western Dacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 Long shot but if the WAR is stronger and closer to the coast we could sneak in some tropical moisture lol Long ways out obviously.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 1 hour ago, WNash said: I remember from living in NYC that Newark was always the hot spot. Big UHI, not far above sea level, cut off from maritime influences. Newark generally ran about 5-10F hotter than where I lived in central Brooklyn. I remember going past Newark many times....sooooo much concrete/asphalt and lots of dirty haze in the sky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 WOW! This was in southern Ontario a little while ago! Twin cross crossed funnels! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: WOW! This was in southern Ontario a little while ago! Twin cross crossed funnels! Wow, just checked the radar for that timeframe and not very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Front inching closer, should be a nice night to open the windows once the DPs lower a little more.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Total of 1.59" rain today. I was golfing up in Oswego County this afternion/evening so I missed the final line that came thru no. Onondaga county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 1 hour ago, vortmax said: Wow, just checked the radar for that timeframe and not very impressive. Those are landspout/waterspout vortices IMO. Fairly harmless but very cool! That storm could never support a true tornado 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 13 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Total of 1.59" rain today. I was golfing up in Oswego County this afternion/evening so I missed the final line that came thru no. Onondaga county. We ducked and dodged all day, unfortunately. I wanted rain so badly. Only .05” in my gauge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Hopefully we see some action on Friday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 10 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: We ducked and dodged all day, unfortunately. I wanted rain so badly. Only .05” in my gauge. Same here. BUF finished June close to 2” below normal rainfall which is a lot when average I think is around 3”. Barely an inch IMBY over the last 2 months. Maybe something falls here in the next few days with the wind out of the N/NW instead of coming out of the SW up the length of the precip crushing lake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Euro fwiw.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Tonight, the potential for showers will continue as the upper level low induces cyclonic flow over the region, and the shortwave trough passes over the WNY area. The greatest chance for shower activity will be near and over the western portion of Lake Ontario, down toward Lake Erie. Low temps tonight will be in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The core of an upper level low north of the Great Lakes this morning should be dropping south and over WNY or Lake Erie by Friday morning. This type of pattern will feature light flow through the atmospheric column, but not particularly abundant moisture (precipitable water nearing 1.00" or near average for this time of year). Forecast soundings support enough buoyancy for the development showers and possible thunderstorms as the coldest core aloft moves overhead. However, convection should not be particularly strong. The slow moving nature may be of some concern for localized heavy rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 1, 2021 Author Share Posted July 1, 2021 Booked a trip out west for next month for 10 days going to Tetons, Yellowstone and Glacier national park. Thinking 2-3 days in each park. Rental car for 10 days was $1050 and flights for 2 people were around $975. I did the same thing in Utah/Arizona for $750 for flights and $600 for rental car in May so prices definitely going up for summer. It might be because you can only really visit glacier NP in summer, once September hits snow starts to fall up there. Glacier has been on my list for awhile 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 It's crazy how big the Adirondack state park really is..Kind of out of left field lol It would take these five national parks added together to equal the size of the Adirondack Park: Yellowstone, Grand Canyon, Yosemite, Everglades, and Great Smoky National Parks.. The Adirondack Park is larger than any of the seven smallest states in the United States: Hawaii, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Delaware, Rhode Island, and New Jersey. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 1, 2021 Author Share Posted July 1, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: It's crazy how big the Adirondack state park really is..Kind of out of left field lol It would take these five national parks added together to equal the size of the Adirondack Park: Yellowstone, Grand Canyon, Yosemite, Everglades, and Great Smoky National Parks.. The Adirondack Park is larger than any of the seven smallest states in the United States: Hawaii, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Delaware, Rhode Island, and New Jersey. It's the largest state park in the USA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Hrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Booked a trip out west for next month for 10 days going to Tetons, Yellowstone and Glacier national park. Thinking 2-3 days in each park. Rental car for 10 days was $1050 and flights for 2 people were around $975. I did the same thing in Utah/Arizona for $750 for flights and $600 for rental car in May so prices definitely going up for summer. It might be because you can only really visit glacier NP in summer, once September hits snow starts to fall up there. Glacier has been on my list for awhile I thought about going out west this year but the crowds and restrictions, esp at National Parks have turned me off of that. My sister was at Zion last month, gorgeous but a bit of a hassle overall. I'm thinking Greece at this point, for an adventure. It's fully open and not living the covid life any longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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