Upstate/Eastern New York

[Syrmax]

7 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Urban heat islands continue to grow each year, more parking lots, more buildings, and more places using AC (which likely has a small local impact).  When all the buildings are pumping heat outside, it eventually becomes tangible.  There is no city that has less pavement and more trees now than in years past.  Temps can only go up in these scenarios.  I'm quite convinced Buffalos higher temps are solely because of all the development in that area the past few years.  Also, climate change is the real deal...and certainly shows itself as warming more often than not.

Creeping urbanization vs climate change (warming) has been a hot button topic for as long as AGW first became a thing (c. 1988).  I've read both sides of this from scientists and knowledgeable people and I think there's probably both effects contributing...and ongoing. How much of which effect is responsible...even "experts" disagree.

[Syrmax]

27 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

feb 2015?

That's a good one. Also the original "Polar Vortex" cold wave in January of 2014 (?).  That's the event where the MSM discovered that the polar vortex is a thing and started hyping it as part of their fear porn.  I remember it well as we had significant electrical issues in the NE & MA stemming from the cold.

[vortmax]

It would take a wicked cold airmass or frozen lakes (probably both - and maybe even an abnormally cold summer prior) to get -30 or below around here. 

Seems easier for the atmosphere to generate record heat than cold. 

[wolfie09]

We have a chance today, need a couple degrees for an official heat wave..lol

[BuffaloWeather]

Looks like June is going to finish a little over +4 for BUF. Climate change is definitely impacting here as well, just at a slower pace than out west. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Hey guys remember this thread? Still on front page, someone delete that thing. 

 

[TugHillMatt]

4 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

Urban heat islands continue to grow each year, more parking lots, more buildings, and more places using AC (which likely has a small local impact).  When all the buildings are pumping heat outside, it eventually becomes tangible.  There is no city that has less pavement and more trees now than in years past.  Temps can only go up in these scenarios.  I'm quite convinced Buffalos higher temps are solely because of all the development in that area the past few years.  Also, climate change is the real deal...and certainly shows itself as warming more often than not.

I was thinking about this exact thing just the other day. I was curious how much the ACs pumping the hot air outside affects the temperature.

Also, I've said it before, and some will strongly disagree... Syracuse is NOT a cold climate city. It's moderate and mild here...compared to almost everywhere else at the same latitude.

[TugHillMatt]

Oh...and SIZZLECUSE is... at 91 degrees. Same thing, different day.

[TugHillMatt]

Looks like there's a line of storms forming just north of 90 and headed towards us, so that may cool it down temporarily... into the upper 80s?  

[vortmax]

One would think some storms would pop along the lake breeze for the S shore...seem only a couple east of Sodus bay...

[TugHillMatt]

13 minutes ago, vortmax said:

One would think some storms would pop along the lake breeze for the S shore...seem only a couple east of Sodus bay...

Yesterday they were way inland...Pretty much trained along and south of 90.

[BuffaloWeather]

enhanced tomorrow in eastern ny

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

[wolfie09]

Hit or miss storms the next couple days..

[BuffaloWeather]

Storms firing on lake erie breeze right now. 

[BuffaloWeather]

[vortmax]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Storms firing on lake erie breeze right now. 

Just noticed that. Incoming to SYR...not much in the Erie shadow...

[TugHillMatt]

Severe Thunderstorm warning here for Hail and possible 60 mph winds.  Right now, just some gentle rains with thunder. I'll take that.

[BuffaloWeather]

So easy to get a SW flow in summer. About 90% of summer is SW flow. In winter like .0005%

[wolfie09]

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Is that feels like accurate?

[vortmax]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Is that feels like accurate?

I'd say so with a 75 DP...

[BuffaloWeather]

4 minutes ago, vortmax said:

I'd say so with a 75 DP...

That's some good stuff right there. 

[BuffaloWeather]

BUF at 89/71 Index of 95. 

SYR at 92/71 Index of 99

ROC at 91/67 Index of 94

[BuffaloWeather]

Looks like the heat is here to stay. So my Alaska trip looks to be a dud as a rental car for 10 days is $3600. Think I'm going out west again Montana/Idaho/Wyoming for a 12 day road trip to Glacier national park, tetons, and yellowstone. 

 

[TugHillMatt]

Heavy, huge raindrops here with, I'd say, around 35 mph wind gusts. No hail, thankfully.

Temp dropped to 75 degrees, while just to the South in Syracuse, it's 20 degrees hotter with sunshine.

[Syrmax]

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Oh...and SIZZLECUSE is... at 91 degrees. Same thing, different day.

79 degrees at 3pm here. Where the Sizzle?

Feels like Hudson Bay!  Total Bullsh*t "heatwave."

I need to move to Portland where there's reliable heat!

[wolfie09]

Glen Frey would be proud of our weather today as the heat is on
over WNY and CNY. Widespread mid 90s to lower 100s are present
for heat index values all along the Lake Erie shore, even inside
the lake breeze boundary, through the Niagara Frontier, across
the northern Finger Lakes, and all the way to the southeast end
of Lake Ontario. As of 2 PM, Clifton Springs, Burt, and Niagara
Falls were all surpassing 100 degrees, and a plethora of other
locations are poised to do likewise in the next hour or two.
This makes this the warmest day of the recent heat wave over the
area.

But with abundant heat and humidity, well defined lake breeze
boundaries, and cumulus initiation with 20-25 kts of bulk shear,
convection is beginning to develop. PWAT values are up toward 2
inches and shear is weak, so areas that do see activity will
likely get some heavy rain. Likewise, even with a fairly
marginal shear field, instability is quite abundant on a day
like today, so pulse activity could result in a bit of gustiness
from the most burly of the cells that develop.

Another sultry night is in store as convective debris advects
into the area overnight from dying convection over the upper
Great Lakes. This combined with an incoming short wave trough
will increase cloud cover and lift progressively from west to
east going into Wednesday morning.

An upper jet streak looks to backbuild over southern Ontario on
Wednesday with the area firmly in its right entrance region. The
short wave trough looks to pass WNY roughly 15z and exit the
southeastern part of the area around 21z. MUCAPE values ahead of
it maximize in the early afternoon around 1500 J/kg with
associated 35-45kt of bulk shear allowing for better
organization on Wednesday. SPC has placed most of the area in a
marginal risk with the southeastern fringe in a slight risk.
This seems reasonable as the short wave will be passing most of
WNY before diurnal heating processes really can get convective
activity going. Nonetheless, this will be the best shot the
entire area has seen in some time to experience a widespread
rainfall, which in many areas, is still very welcome.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Looks like the heat is here to stay. So my Alaska trip looks to be a dud as a rental car for 10 days is $3600. Think I'm going out west again Montana/Idaho/Wyoming for a 12 day road trip to Glacier national park, tetons, and yellowstone. 

Insane....I was going to say just buy a cheap ride and sell it but check this out...cars are selling for double their KBB.

https://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-sale/vehicledetails.xhtml?listingId=587168475&zip=99508&referrer=%2Fcars-for-sale%2Fsearchresults.xhtml%3Fzip%3D99508%26city%3DAnchorage%26listingTypes%3DUSED%26sortBy%3DderivedpriceASC%26location%3D%5Bobject%2BObject%5D%26incremental%3Dall%26state%3DAK%26firstRecord%3D0%26marketExtension%3Dinclude%26relevanceConfig%3Ddefault%26searchRadius%3D50%26isNewSearch%3Dfalse&listingTypes=USED&numRecords=25&firstRecord=0&searchRadius=50&makeCode1=FORD&modelCode1=EXPLOR&clickType=listing

[TugHillMatt]

Geesh... Newark is at 99, Boston hit 98, and Hartford hit 98.

Meanwhile, Garrett County, MD...a couple thousand feet up, has maxed out in the Upper 70s and low 80s during this heat wave the past several days. I've seriously been considering that area...similar snowfall climatology to Syracuse, and avoids most of the sauna weather of summer.

[Polarbear]

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Looks like the heat is here to stay. So my Alaska trip looks to be a dud as a rental car for 10 days is $3600. Think I'm going out west again Montana/Idaho/Wyoming for a 12 day road trip to Glacier national park, tetons, and yellowstone. 

 

Can’t go wrong with the Tetons!! It’s big money but it’s goal of mine to own a house in Jackson so I can wake up to them every morning eventually.

I’m using turo as an alternative to traditional rental when we go out to Denver/Colorado springs (possible relocation idea)Labor Day week. I don’t know anyone personally whose used it but seems like Airbnb for cars. May not be super popular in Alaska though.I saved about 350/wk and renting a ‘21 Tesla.
Disclaimer : I was planning to  rent a f150 so not apples to apples cost comparison you any means. But I’m curious to the Tesla fad so…