SouthBuffaloSteve Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 Way downstate, but first tornado warning in NY today I believe… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 Fairport ny just east of rochester. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 Sizzle sizzle returns this weekend.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 Continue to see some light rain that is slowly adding up.(0.06").. Dreary morning to say the least.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 52 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Continue to see some light rain that is slowly adding up.(0.06").. Dreary morning to say the least.. Probably lake enhanced precip...in June! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 A stalled boundary/front will be in place from the Upper Great Lakes to James Bay early Friday. A sfc low will develop over the Mid- Mississippi Valley on Friday, and track northeast along the stalled boundary. As the area of low pressure tracks northeast, the boundary will start to slowly track east toward the region. The daylight hours on Friday should be mostly dry, with the chance for showers increasing from west to east. As the boundary slowly crosses, over the WNY & North Country region, at least one additional sfc low is expected to track along the boundary. This will cause a prolonged period of time where showers and thunderstorms will be expected. Currently, it looks like the best chance for more persistent showers will be from Saturday afternoon through the remainder of the long term period. Timing and placement of the boundary will be the determining factor in amount of rain, with a quicker boundary/frontal passage leading to less rainfall overall for the region. But, if the boundary is as slow as some guidance is suggesting, a wet weekend will be on tap. Temperatures during the long term period will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s, with some day to day temperature fluctuations up and down a few degrees expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 Well where ever that boundary sets up is going to see quite a bit of moisture.. Like a conveyor belt from the GOM lol Euro still keeps it west so there's that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 22, 2021 Author Share Posted June 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Well where ever that boundary sets up is going to see quite a bit of moisture.. Like a conveyor belt from the GOM lol Euro still keeps it west so there's that.. That would be quite the washout in the Adirondacks this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 Yeah looks like 3"-6" for parts of the tug/dacks on the icon verbatim(through Tuesday) but you can see that cutoff, could go either way lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 22, 2021 Author Share Posted June 22, 2021 Good thing I'm hiking Thurs/Fri. My friends are up there Thurs-Tuesday. Was planning on heading home on Sunday, but at least I'll get the hikes out of the way. 40 miles of hiking, 12k elevation change in 2 days. Good luck me. If I die or get lost I'll be on the colvin/blake/sawteeth trail on Thurs and Basin/saddleback/haystack on Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 Looks like GFS trended stronger (closer) with the HP off the coast allowing the boundary to stay farther west..IE less rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looks like GFS trended stronger (closer) with the HP off the coast allowing the boundary to stay farther west..IE less rain... If we go with persistence the eastern extent of the rain will be Buffalo Outer Harbor (desertification setting in here from lack of rain...front came through dry yesterday). If we go with the “you’re due” approach BUF will get 10” of rain from Saturday to Monday. I know, solid forecasting metrics here... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 51 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Good thing I'm hiking Thurs/Fri. My friends are up there Thurs-Tuesday. Was planning on heading home on Sunday, but at least I'll get the hikes out of the way. 40 miles of hiking, 12k elevation change in 2 days. Good luck me. If I die or get lost I'll be on the colvin/blake/sawteeth trail on Thurs and Basin/saddleback/haystack on Friday. My wife and I are up there starting Sunday night....if you don't report back in by then we will commence the search! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 Canadian on the other side of the spectrum.. Some needed rain either way.. (Gfs top, Canadian bottom) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 22, 2021 Author Share Posted June 22, 2021 Buf +4.1 Roc +3 Wat +4.3 Today is quite chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 Everyone seems more interested in the heat or rain 5 days away. But tonight looks pretty interesting to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 Well at least for now the NWS is going with a somewhat wet forecast D4-D7.. Probably not looking at a total washout.. Saturday A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday Night Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday Showers likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday Night Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Showers likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Night Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday Showers likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 2 hours ago, Flying MXZ said: Everyone seems more interested in the heat or rain 5 days away. But tonight looks pretty interesting to me. Same, up in lake placid for work 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 22, 2021 Author Share Posted June 22, 2021 Just wore sweatpants and hoodie on our walk. 60 and windy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 6 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said: If we go with persistence the eastern extent of the rain will be Buffalo Outer Harbor (desertification setting in here from lack of rain...front came through dry yesterday). If we go with the “you’re due” approach BUF will get 10” of rain from Saturday to Monday. I know, solid forecasting metrics here... One extreme or the other… that’s how we roll! Love running the GFS all the way out and it shows the desert over BUF clear as day. Like come on… EDIT to add… I’m sure our drought buster will finally show up on 4th of July weekend. That’s just how this goes down around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 EF-1 tornado confirmed in east central Tompkins County just east of Ithaca... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 Don't have a velocity image or loop but you can see the embedded hook in eastern Tompkins County on the reflectivity. BGM did not issue a Tornado warning but did state there was a dangerous microburst detected on radar in the Severe Weather Statement... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 On Saturday the above mentioned wave of low pressure will pass by to our northwest...with its associated frontal boundary impinging on our western periphery. The approaching front and increasing diurnal instability should combine to generate at least some scattered showers and thunderstorms...with the greatest potential for these found across far western/northern New York...which will lie closest to the surface boundary. After that...the forecast details will be heavily dictated by the position of the frontal boundary...which will in turn be influenced by the balance between building ridging over the western Atlantic and multiple additional waves of low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes and southern Canada. At this point the medium range guidance remains at least somewhat at odds as to which of these features will have more influence...though there does seem to be at least some semblance of a trend toward the western Atlantic ridge eventually becoming more dominant over time...as exhibited by the ECMWF/GFS. Should the above come to fruition...the frontal zone would likely not make it any further east between Saturday night and Sunday... before gradually getting displaced a little further back to our west early on next week. Such an evolution in the pattern would keep our region on the warm side of the front and thus in a warm and humid airmass through the end of this period...while the still-close proximity of the boundary and increasing daytime instability still yielding at least some potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms each day...and nocturnal stabilization then leading to a relative minimum in convective activity later on each night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 European through it's entirety.. About half of this is in the sat/sun time frame, rest is isolated throughout the week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 36° low this morning and the 3rd morning with spotty frost this month! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 Cool air (850 hPa temperatures around +4C) this early morning with sufficient low level moisture will generate a few streamers of lake clouds to the southeast...and then east of the Lakes. Moderate cumulus is forming over the Boston Hills this early morning off Lake Erie. Lake clouds that form today will advance northward as the low level flow backs this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 58 minutes ago, winter_rules said: 36° low this morning and the 3rd morning with spotty frost this month! Two nights ago it was sweltering hot at bed time. Last night I slept in winter flannel pajamas. Amazing ups and downs this June. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 22 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Well where ever that boundary sets up is going to see quite a bit of moisture.. Like a conveyor belt from the GOM lol Euro still keeps it west so there's that.. I've been trying to finish staining my deck for about a week or so but can't get a reliable 2 or 3 days with no rain in the forecast. This doesn't look promising either. Will have to do it tomorrow or wait for who knows how long. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 Sizzle sizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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